Date: Saturday 24th January 2026
Conditions: Soft, 3m 2f, 4 Runners

This renewal of the Cotswold Chase presents a fascinating, tactical four-runner affair. While the field is small, the quality is high, featuring a clash between a rising star in the staying division, a defending champion, and a fascinating Irish raider.

The Pace and Tactical Scenario

In small fields, tactics are paramount. The pace forecast is predicted to be “Very Weak”. This dynamic is critical; a slowly run race tends to favour those ridden prominently who can quicken from the front. The analysis suggests this scenario “should play into the hands of those up with the pace,” specifically noting that L’Homme Presse (FR) “ought to be better positioned” than the favourite, Grey Dawning (IRE).

Runner-by-Runner Analysis

1. GREY DAWNING (IRE) (8/11 Fav)

• The Form Choice: This 9-year-old is the highest-rated horse in the field with an Official Rating (OR) of 166. He arrives in peak form, having returned with an impressive success in the Betfair Chase at Haydock recently, winning by 2¾ lengths.
• Strengths: He is a consistent, top-class chaser. His jockey, Harry Skelton has a 35% strike rate when riding chase favourites. His speed figures are superior, boasting the highest recent average (85.99) compared to his rivals.
• Weaknesses: While he is the one to beat, he has been beaten by L’Homme Presse in a head-to-head meeting at Kempton (394 days ago), where he finished well behind. He will need to ensure he isn’t out-sprinted in a tactical finish.

2. L’HOMME PRESSE (FR) (9/2)

• The Defending Champion: This 11-year-old won this exact race last year (2025) and has an excellent record at Cheltenham.
• Strengths: He is a course specialist who showed he retains high ability with a good second in a handicap at this track last month. The “very weak” pace forecast is a major positive for him, as he likes to dominate or sit handy.
• Weaknesses: He is conceding age to his main market rivals. However, previous trends show 11-year-olds can win this race (e.g., Native River in 2021.

3. SPILLANE’S TOWER (IRE) (10/3)

• The Dark Horse: An 8-year-old Irish challenger rated 164, just 2lbs off the favourite. He showed top-class form when runner-up in the John Durkan at Punchestown in November 2024.
• Preparation: He has been campaigned sparingly and had a “creditable third” in a hurdles race 24 days ago, which should serve as a perfect sharpener for this return to chasing.
• Assessment: He is the youngest in the field and arguably has the most scope for improvement. He shouldn’t be underestimated.

4. FLOORING PORTER (IRE) (12/1)

• The Outsider: A dual Stayers’ Hurdle winner who has come late to fences.
• Assessment: He faces a massive task here. He has been off the track for 486 days, having not run since a win at Listowel in September 2024. While he has back class, asking an 11-year-old to win a Grade 2 chase against race-fit rivals after such a long absence is a “very tough ask”.

Verdict

Logic points to GREY DAWNING as the most likely winner. He is the younger, higher-rated horse coming off a Grade 1 victory in the Betfair Chase. His current form figures (132P121) are robust.

However, from a betting and tactical perspective, L’HOMME PRESSE offers significant danger. If Charlie Deutsch can dictate a crawl in front as the pace forecast suggests, he could turn this into a sprint which might catch the favourite flat-footed.

Spillane’s Tower is the value alternative for those looking away from the front two; his prep run over hurdles was encouraging, and as an 8-year-old, his ceiling may not yet be reached.

Prediction:

1. Grey Dawning (Class act, likely to grind it out despite the pace).
2. L’Homme Presse (Tactical danger, loves the track).
3. Spillane’s Tower (The improver).