Let’s be honest, a Class 5 handicap hurdle over three miles on a Tuesday afternoon isn’t exactly the Champion Hurdle. It’s going to be a proper slog. But sometimes, these bog-standard races are exactly where you find a bit of value if you look past the obvious.
The 2.25 at Newcastle is a real stamina test. They’ll be galloping for what feels like forever, and you need a horse that just keeps going when everyone else has had enough.
Here’s my take on how to play it without overcomplicating things.
The Reliable One: Kalo Athena
If you just want to back the most likely winner, it’s Kalo Athena. She finally put it all together at Wetherby last month, winning easily in a big field.
The key thing here is stamina. She’s won two Point-to-Points over 3 miles, so we know she stays the trip all day long. She’s only gone up 6lb for that win, which is fair enough, and with the cheekpieces staying on, she looks rock solid. At around 9/4, she’s not going to make you rich overnight, but she’s the one they all have to beat.
The “Dark Horse”: Le Beau Gosse
Now, if you’re looking for something at a bigger price (around 14/1 or 16/1), have a look at Le Beau Gosse.
On paper, his form looks a bit rubbish—he hasn’t really threatened in three runs since coming over from France. So why am I interested?
** The Trip:** He’s been running over shorter distances and just plugging on at one pace. Today, the trainer (Oliver Greenall) is stepping him up to 3 miles for the first time. The stable has a surprisingly good record—and a nice profit—when doing exactly this.
The Gear: He’s wearing first-time cheekpieces AND a first-time tongue tie. That’s the classic “kitchen sink” job. It tells me the trainer thinks the ability is there, but the horse just needs a bit of help with breathing and concentration.
When a yard like this steps a horse up in trip and throws all the gear at it, they are usually trying to land a handicap. He’s dropped down the weights massively, and this could be the day he wakes up.
The Dangers
Wainwright is dangerous because his trainer, Nicky Richards, is banging in winners left, right, and centre at the moment. The horse bled from the nose last time out over fences, which is a worry, but if he’s healthy again, he’s got the ability to win this easily.
Then there’s Dillarchie. She’s as honest as the day is long. She’ll plod on while others are crying for air and will probably finish 2nd or 3rd, but she might just lack the turn of foot to win.
The Verdict
I’m keeping it simple.
The Win: Kalo Athena. She’s fit, in form, and loves the distance.
The Each-Way Punt: Le Beau Gosse. The gear changes and step up in trip are massive clues. At 14/1, he’s worth a small interest to see if the plan comes together.