Race: 6.00 Wolverhampton (Classified Stakes, 5f)
Date: Tuesday 27th January 2026
A classified Stakes over the minimum trip. On the face of it, this looks like a penalty kick for the favourite. But if you’ve been following the data today, you’ll know that if something looks too good to be true in a Class 6 sprint, it usually is.
Here is why I’m looking to take on the odds-on shot.
The “Good Thing” with a Flaw
Midnight Call is currently trading around 5/6, and the case for her is obvious. She won here just four days ago, she loves this track (3 wins from 6), and thanks to Tyrese Cameron’s 7lb claim, she is effectively carrying less weight than her rivals.
However, the “Stat Attack” threw up a number that stops me cold. The young jockey, Tyrese Cameron, has had 20 rides at Wolverhampton and hasn’t won a single one. That is a 0% strike rate at this specific venue.
Wolverhampton is a tricky, tight track. You need to know exactly when to push the button off the home turn. Am I willing to take odds-on about a jockey breaking his course duck under pressure? Absolutely not.
The Rail Runner
If we are swerving the favourite, where do we go? The answer might be sitting in Stall 1.
My Turn Now (around 13/2) has the golden ticket. Over 5f at Dunstall Park, the inside draw is a massive advantage. You don’t have to use energy to get position; you just jump and hold the rail.
She is a Course & Distance winner, but more importantly, she has Sean Levey on board. Levey is operating at a 29% strike rate over the last fortnight. He is riding out of his skin, and putting a “hot” jockey on a well-drawn horse is a classic angle in these lower grades.
The Speed Angle
The other runner screaming for attention is the veteran The Defiant (5/1). If you look at the raw speed figures, he is simply the fastest horse in the race (Avg Speed Rating: 68.19 vs the field’s low 60s). He had a nightmare trip out wide at Lingfield last time, but if he gets a clear run, he has the engine to blow past this lot.
The Verdict
I can’t back Midnight Call at that price with that jockey stat. It’s too much risk for too little reward.
Instead, I’m splitting the stakes on the two horses who have the setup to spoil the party.
The Map Play: My Turn Now (Win/Each Way @ 13/2) – For the Stall 1 advantage.
The Speed Play: The Defiant (Win @ 5/1) – For the class drop.