A Class 6 handicap that offers a decent betting shape if you look past the recent results.
We’ve got a field of nine facing the starter for this mile contest, and the draw is going to be absolutely critical.
The Favourite: Mbappe
This is the one I want to be on. He was genuinely unlucky over this course and distance just nine days ago—got hampered late on when making his run and finished third with plenty left in the tank. Billy Loughnane is back in the saddle, which is a massive booking at this level. He’s running off a mark of 58, which is well below his winning form from last year. Drawn in Stall 5, he’s in the perfect spot to stalk the pace and pounce. If he gets a clear run, he wins.
The Danger: Rising Force
He won well at Lingfield last week and arrives here in great nick. The issue is the 5lb penalty he has to carry for that win. However, he’s drawn in Stall 2 and there isn’t much pace in the race. If they let him bowl along in front unchallenged, he could be hard to peg back. He’s the clear threat.
The Value: Marchetti
At around 10/1, Marchetti is a cracking each-way shout. He’s an old boy now (9 years old), but he’s drawn in Stall 4, which means he should get a lovely sit just behind the leaders on the rail. If the favourite gets stuck in traffic or the leader goes too hard, Marchetti is perfectly placed to pick up the pieces.
The Swerve: Pave The Way
She won here a fortnight ago at huge odds (40/1), but I’m happy to take her on today. She’s drawn out in Stall 9, which is affectionately known as “the car park” over the Kempton mile. She’ll have to work very hard early on to get a position, and I just can’t see her backing up that performance from out there.
The Verdict
I’m keeping it simple. Mbappe looks the best horse in the race with the best jockey on board. I’ll have a small each-way saver on Marchetti just in case the race turns tactical.
Win: Mbappe
Each-Way: Marchetti