Wednesday 28th January 2026
It’s a Wednesday night at Kempton, and while a Class 6 handicap isn’t exactly the Derby, this 6:00 race is a proper puzzle worth solving. It’s tight, competitive, and I think the bookies might have the wrong favourite.
Taking on the Favourite
The clear favourite is Aneirin’s Sword. You can see why: he won last time out and has Billy Loughnane in the saddle. When Billy teams up with Jamie Osborne, punters take notice.
But I’m taking him on. That win was a dead-heat, so he didn’t exactly bolt up, and tonight he’s drawn out in Stall 8. That’s the widest draw, which is a tough spot over a mile at Kempton. He’ll have to work hard to get a position, and at around 7/2, the price is just too short for my liking.
The Rematch: Roserunner vs Wind Summer
The real interest here is the rematch between Roserunner and Wind Summer.
They met at Lingfield in December, and it was a scrap. Roserunner won by a neck, but he was carrying 2lbs less than Wind Summer that day.
Today, on paper, they carry the same weight (9st 9lb). However, the apprentices make the difference. Luke Catton takes 3lb off Roserunner, while Mason Paetel takes a handy 5lb off Wind Summer.
So, here is the simple maths:
Last time: Wind Summer gave 2lb away and lost by a neck.
Today: Wind Summer receives 2lb from Roserunner (thanks to the claimers).
That is a 4lb swing in Wind Summer’s favour. In a race this tight, that 4lb advantage should be enough to turn a neck defeat into a win. Plus, the Ismail Mohammed yard does well when sending just one runner to the track.
One at a Price
If you want an outsider, have a look at Hamaleel. She’s been off the track for a while, but her trainer Archie Watson is brilliant at getting them ready after a break. She’s drawn well in Stall 2 and could pick up the pieces if the others go too fast.
The Verdict
The favourite has a bad draw, and the weight swing gives Wind Summer the edge over his main rival. At odds of around 13/2, he looks like the solid value bet of the race.
Selection: Wind Summer
Next Best: Hamaleel