4.10 Southwell: Swerving the Favourite for Value
Date: Friday 30th January 2026
Race: Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (Class 6)
The markets have Rogue Identity priced up as the 15/8 favourite this afternoon, but a deep dive into the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data suggests the layers have got this wrong. We are looking at a vulnerable market leader and a massive value angle elsewhere.
The False Favourite: Rogue Identity (15/8)
On paper, the connection (J P Owen) has a solid 19% strike rate this month, which draws the eye. However, the data tells a different story.
Speed Deficit: His latest speed figure is a sluggish 52.9. In a handicap of this nature, that leaves him vulnerable to sharper types.
Ratings Gap: He is only the 5th highest-rated horse in the field on HRB Total Ratings (222.8). You are being asked to take short odds on a horse that is statistically inferior to four of his rivals.
The Value Play: Naughty Niall (17/2)
This is where the smart money should be looking. Ian Williams’ runner ticks every data box required for a Class 6 handicap.
Top Speed: He clocks in with a speed figure of 65.2—that is significantly superior to the favourite.
** consistency:** His profile is rock solid. He boasts a 56% strike rate for placing in this class and hits the frame 53% of the time going left-handed.
Form: Recent figures of 3431622 show he is in the grip of the handicapper but consistently competitive. At 17/2, he is undeniably overpriced.
The Danger: Time Turner (3/1)
If you’re playing Exactas or Forecasts, this is the one to include.
Class Act: He is the clear top-rated horse on HRB with a massive score of 255.0.
Deadly Duo: The Bethell/Rodriguez combination is operating at a 20% win rate over the last two years.
The Negatives: He carries top weight (9-12), which is why I prefer the each-way value of Naughty Niall, but he is the rightful threat.
The Verdict
The market is too skewed towards Rogue Identity. We’ll take the solid speed figures and consistency of the older horse.
Win/Each Way: Naughty Niall @ 17/2
Forecast: Naughty Niall to beat Time Turner