​Race: 3yo Handicap (0-60) | Distance: 7f

​In 7-furlong handicaps at Dundalk, ability is only half the equation. Geometry is the other half. Today, the market leader is fighting a statistical losing battle, and the data says we should bet against him.

​The Lay: Stone Bear (2/1)

​The Trap: On pure form, Stone Bear is the best horse (HRB Rating 156.4). But he has drawn Stall 13.

​The Data: We just ran the numbers for 14-runner races over this course and distance. The results are damning:

• ​Stall 4 Wins: 50 (The sweet spot)
• ​Stall 13 Wins: 23 (The worst of the lot)

​Stall 13 is the statistical graveyard of this track. To win from out there, Stone Bear has to defy the strongest negative trend on the card. At 2/1, you are paying a premium price for a “bad mathematics” bet. Lay.

​The Win: Beau Army (5/1)

​The Logic: If Stone Bear is in the graveyard, Beau Army is in the executive lounge in Stall 2.

• ​Stable Form: The Adrian McGuinness yard is flying with a 20% Strike Rate in the last 14 days.
• ​Tactics: From Stall 2, he does zero work to get a position. He saves ground while the favourite burns petrol.
• ​Price: You are getting 5/1 on a last-time-out winner from a hot yard with the run of the race. This is the solid play.

​The “Stat Attack” Longshot: Commander Kabaw (28/1)

​The Angle: Ignore the ugly form figures (7008). Look at the connections.

• ​Trainer/Jockey: Daniel Murphy and J.J.G. Ryan have a 22% Win Strike Rate together recently.
• ​Small yards don’t waste “live” jockeys on no-hopers. At 28/1, this horse is priced on lazy reading of the form book, not the underlying intent.

​The Verdict

1. ​Back: Beau Army (5/1) to exploit the draw bias.
2. ​Swwerve: Stone Bear (2/1) – The price is too short for the risk of Stall 13.
3. ​Small EW: Commander Kabaw (28/1) – The clever money outsider.