Friday night under the lights at Dundalk. The 5.45 is a one-mile handicap that looks messy on paper, but the internal numbers cut through the noise. We have a clear favourite, a massive plot job, and a value angle the bookies have missed.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Likely Winner: Moyassr (IRE)
Odds: 3/1 | Stall: 5
You don’t overthink this one. Moyassr tops every metric that matters.
The Rating: He sits on a HorseRaceBase Total Rating of 173.1, a massive 9.2 points clear of the field.
The Draw: Over the Dundalk mile, Stall 5 is the statistical sweet spot (producing 56 winners in our 1,300-race sample). He lands right in it.
The Form: He enters off a win and holds an 86% place strike rate at this track.
If you want the “safe” money, this is it. He is the standard-bearer.
The “Plot” Job: Mulgrave (IRE)
Odds: 15/2 | Stall: 6
Ignore his recent form string of 0300568. This horse has been laid out for this specific Friday for three years running.
History: He won this exact race in 2023 and 2024.
The Mark: He won it in 2024 off an Official Rating of 74. Today, he runs off 70.
He is 4lbs lower than his last winning mark in this contest. The market knows it, and he is the clear danger to the favourite.
The Value Play: Ferrari Desert
Odds: 16/1 | Stall: 10
This is where the market has it wrong. Ferrari Desert is priced like a no-hoper, but her numbers scream contender.
The Disconnect: She has the 2nd Highest Total Rating (163.9) in the race, yet is priced as the 8th outsider.
Speed: Her top speed figures rival the favourite.
Stall 10 is sticky, but at 16/1, the price is too big to ignore. She is the smart each-way play.
The Lay: Daonethatgotaway
Odds: 4/1 | Stall: 13
He is the second favourite, but he’s in the “coffin corner.” Stall 13 is historically brutal over the mile at Dundalk. He will have to work too hard to get a position against Moyassr (5) and Mulgrave (6). At 4/1, let him beat you.
The Bottom Line
Win: #3 Moyassr (Solid, logical, top-rated).
Each-Way Steal: #13 Ferrari Desert (Wrong price for her ratings).
The Forecast: Moyassr to beat Mulgrave.