Date: Friday, 30th January 2026
Race: 6.15 Dundalk (1m4f Rated Race)
If you glance at the market for the 6.15 at Dundalk, you’ll see a classic punting trap. The bookies have priced this up based on trainer form. The algorithms, however, tell a completely different story.
This isn’t an eight-runner race; it’s a match bet. And if you trust the numbers over the narrative, the wrong horse is favourite.
The False Favourite: Take Heart (11/8)
Let’s be clear: Stephen Thorne’s yard is absolutely flying. A 30% strike rate for the month is nothing to sniff at, and that form is the sole reason Take Heart is trading at 11/8.
But look at the horse, not the handler. His HRB rating is 170.6. His last run rated a solid, but unspectacular, 85.7. He has a 3lb claimer on board to help with the weights, but statistically, he is bringing a knife to a gunfight. You are paying a premium price for the trainer’s recent hot streak, not the horse’s raw ability.
The Real Deal: Genoah (5/2)
The value lies with Genoah. The HorseRaceBase (HRB) data screams that this horse is superior, yet he’s available at nearly double the price of the favourite.
The Rating: His HRB Total is 192.4. That is a massive 21-point gap over Take Heart. In a rated race, that gulf in class is decisive.
The Form: He posted a rating of 108.5 on his last run. Compare that to Take Heart’s 85.7. It’s not even close.
The Track: He is a Dundalk specialist with a 50% win rate (3 wins from 6 starts) at the venue.
Genoah carries top weight (10-0), but when a horse is rated this far clear of the field, a few pounds shouldn’t stop him. At 5/2, he is the standout bet of the day.
The Supporting Cast
If you’re playing Forecasts or Placepots, there are only two others to consider:
The Banker: Nakasero (5/1). He doesn’t win enough, but he hits the board like clockwork. With an 80% place strike rate at Dundalk, he is the safest option to follow the winner home.
The Wildcard: San Andreas (20/1). He’s 10 years old and declining, but don’t ignore him completely. He holds the highest “Max Speed” figures in the entire field. If the front two cut each other’s throats, he has the back-class to pick up the pieces at a huge price.
The Verdict
The market has over-adjusted for trainer form. We play the value.
Win: Genoah @ 5/2
Forecast: Genoah to beat Nakasero