Friday 30th January 2026
Let’s cut straight to the chase for the 6.45 at Dundalk. We have a puzzle on our hands: a short-priced favourite with a mountain to climb and a couple of lurking veterans who are dangerously overpriced.
Here is the no-nonsense read on the 0-60 Handicap over 1m 2½f.
The Favourite: A Trap at 15/8?
Beat The Devil (#2) is the rightful favourite on form. The HRB Total Rating of 156.5 puts him nearly 10 points clear of the field. He’s consistent, claiming an 80% place strike rate in these conditions, and S. Coen’s 7lb claim is a gift.
The Problem? Stall 14.
The Stalls Analyser is flashing red. Over this trip at Dundalk, Stall 14 is the “coffin corner,” producing significantly fewer winners (21) compared to low-to-mid draws like Stall 4 (38). At 15/8, you are backing a horse that needs to burn petrol early or risk being trapped three-wide on the bend. He’s the best horse in the race, but the price is too skinny for the risk.
The Speed Angle: The Value Play
If you want value, look at Hale Bopp (#7) at 10/1.
Forget his recent form figures (5048245); look at the engine under the bonnet. He tops the Speed Ratings with a massive 65.07 (Standard) and an “Avg All” of 61.17.
The Logic: In a low-grade 0-60 handicap, back-class tells. Hale Bopp has a “Max All” speed of 86.81—a ceiling no other horse in this field can touch. Drawn in Stall 9, he can sit handy and let his class prevail late on. He is the clear value bet.
The “Ghost” of Dundalk Past
Don’t ignore Kartayaz (#11) at 28/1.
Check the history books: this horse won this exact race in 2022.
He’s 9 now and his form is ugly, but his speed rating (58.12) is actually the 3rd highest in the field—higher than the favourite’s. He is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark. At 28/1, he is the definition of a “course specialist” worth a small each-way tickle.
The Market Mover
Keep an eye on Haeret In Pectore (#13).
The form is terrible (00055), yet he’s 11/2. This reeks of a Tony Martin plot. If he shortens further before the off, the stable is confident.
The Verdict
We aren’t here to take short prices on horses drawn in the car park. We play the value.
The Nap: Hale Bopp (10/1) – The speed figures say he’s the best horse in a poor race.
The Danger: Beat The Devil (15/8) – The form choice, but only for the forecast.
The Longshot: Kartayaz (28/1) – Has won this race before; insulted by the odds.