Date: Saturday, 31st Jan 2026
Race: 1m2f Class 3 Handicap
The market for the 4.25 looks upside down. We have a seven-runner tactical affair where the bookmakers are paying out on consistency, but the data screams that raw ability—and a crucial drop in class—is where the value lies.
Here is the breakdown of why the favourite is a lay and where the smart money should be going.
The Vulnerable Favourite: Londoner (IRE) (7/4)
On paper, Londoner looks the safest conveyance. He tops the HRB Total Ratings (172.0) and has drawn Stall 5, which historically provides the most winners in seven-runner fields over this trip.
However, dig into the Daily Speed Tool and the class columns. His recent consistency (3543202) was achieved in Class 4 company. Today, he steps up to Class 3, carries top weight (9-12), and meets rivals who have been swimming in deeper waters. He is a solid place prospect, but at 7/4, he is undeniably poor value for the win.
The Value Play: Zryan (FR) (4/1)
This is the solution to the puzzle. Ignore the ‘0’ in his form line last time out; that was in a Class 2. He is dropping back down to Class 3 today, a move that often signals a return to the winners’ enclosure.
Crucially, Zryan clocks the fastest Speed Rating (80.79) in the field—nearly three points clear of the favourite. He is the quickest horse in the race, handles the Tapeta (67% place rate), and receives a pound from Londoner. If Cieren Fallon can navigate the slightly tricky Stall 6, Zryan has the engine to blow this field apart.
The Danger: Pride Of Donegal (IRE) (2/1)
If you are looking for a saver, look no further than the Charlie Johnston runner. The handicap terms are heavily in his favour; he receives a massive 7lbs from the favourite.
Combine that weight swing with Jack Mitchell’s current form—he is striking at 27% (4 wins from 15) in the last fortnight. A lightweight 4-year-old with a hot jockey on board is a dangerous formula in a tight handicap.
The Verdict
The market has overreacted to Londoner’s string of placed efforts in lower grades. We are swerving him for the class-dropper with the superior speed figure.
Win Bet: Zryan (FR) @ 4/1
The Danger: Pride Of Donegal (IRE)