Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
Race: 4.55 Newcastle (Class 5 Handicap, 5f)
I’ve crunched the HorseRaceBase data for the 4.55 at Newcastle, and if you are backing the favourite, you are likely burning money. The market has priced #8 Water Of Leith at 5/2, but the metrics suggest he is statistically inferior to a rival sitting at more than double the price.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of why we are taking on the favourite.
The False Favourite: Water Of Leith (#8)
At 5/2, Water Of Leith is priced on visual form (back-to-back 2nds) rather than underlying data. Here is the reality check:
The Quick Backup: The data indicates he ran just 1 day ago at Wolverhampton. Turning out an 8-year-old on a 24-hour turnaround is a massive gamble, regardless of how well he travelled.
Inferior Ratings: His HRB Total Rating is 144.5. That ranks him 3rd in the field, not 1st.
Stall 1: While not a “coffin corner” on the straight 5f, inside draws at Newcastle can get isolated away from the better ground often found middle-to-high.
The Value Play: Our Absent Friends (#5)
Odds: 11/2
HRB Total Rating: 158.2 (Top Rated)
This is the clear wager of the race. #5 Our Absent Friends is superior in almost every metric that matters:
Ratings Dominance: He tops the HRB Total Ratings with a score of 158.2. That is a massive 13.7 points clear of the favourite. In handicap terms, that gap is significant.
Recent Form: His Last Run Rating (77.9) is the highest in the field, coming off a solid 2nd place finish over this Course & Distance 11 days ago. He arrives fresh; the favourite arrives fatigued.
Head-to-Head (H2H): This is the clincher. In their recent history, Our Absent Friends has beaten Water Of Leith repeatedly, including a comfortable 3.35L victory at this track 46 days ago. While there is a weight swing in the favourite’s favour today, the 13-point ratings gap suggests #5 still holds the edge.
The Danger: Emperors Son (#2)
If the top selection fluffs his lines, #2 Emperors Son (6/1) is the one to pick up the pieces. He is rated 2nd (147.3) and boasts a 20% win rate on this surface. He has the “Max All” speed figure (85.88) to threaten if the pace collapses, but he lacks the consistency of #5.
The Verdict
The 5/2 on the favourite is a poor price given the quick turnaround and inferior ratings. We are backing the freshest, highest-rated horse in the race who has beaten the favourite before.
Win Selection: #5 Our Absent Friends @ 11/2