​Date: Saturday 31st January 2026

Race: 7.25 Newcastle (Class 6 Handicap, 7f)

​The market for the 7.25 at Newcastle has priced this up as a coronation for the four-year-old Lord Capulet. At 13/8, the bookies are banking on the “unexposed improver” narrative.

​However, a forensic look at the ratings and speed figures suggests the favourite is significantly underpriced, and the real value lies elsewhere.

​Here is the no-nonsense verdict.

​The Selection: Ana Emaraaty (6/1)

​The data makes a compelling case that Ana Emaraaty is the best horse in the race, yet he is trading at nearly four times the price of the favourite.

• ​Top Rated: On the HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings, Ana Emaraaty tops the field with a score of 147.4. The favourite, Lord Capulet, sits 7.4 points behind on 140.0.
• ​Speed King: In a Class 6 handicap, recent speed figures are gold dust. Ana Emaraaty clocked a 69.36 speed figure last time out—the highest in the field. Lord Capulet’s last win clocked a respectable but inferior 65.72.
• ​Proven Form: He beat two of today’s rivals (Ardaddy and Pit Boss) over this exact course and distance just seven days ago. He meets them on similar terms and arrives race-fit and thriving.

​The Verdict: At 6/1, you are getting the highest-rated, fastest horse in the race. He is the clear value play.

​The Danger: Lord Capulet (13/8)

​There is nothing wrong with Lord Capulet. He is a typical Kevin Ryan improver: a four-year-old coming off a win three weeks ago. The trainer is in form (17% strike rate this month), and the horse is reliable.

​However, 13/8 is a poor price for a horse that, statistically, is inferior to the selection on both raw ability (ratings) and the clock (speed). He is the one to beat, but he is not a bet at those odds.

​The Each-Way Angle: Minshaar (9/1)

​If the front two cut each other’s throats, Minshaar is the one to pick up the pieces.

​While she lacks the raw speed of the top two, her consistency profile is elite for this grade. The ‘Stat Attack’ data highlights a 60% place strike rate for her under these specific conditions (Newcastle, Standard, 7f). She is a solid option for forecast backers or those looking for a reliable place return.

​Summary

​Don’t overcomplicate it. The market is paying for potential, but the data points to proven performance.

• ​Win: #7 Ana Emaraaty @ 6/1
• ​Forecast: 7-2 (Ana Emaraaty to beat Lord Capulet)