Date: Monday, 2nd Feb 2026
Race: Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
The Test: 3 Miles | Heavy | 24 Runners
If you are looking for a tactical, speed-orientated hurdle race, look away now. This is going to be a brutal three-mile slog in the Leopardstown mud. With 24 runners and heavy ground, you don’t need a racehorse; you need a tank with a turbocharger.
I’ve crunched the Timewise Master Ratings and the form book, and frankly, the market looks all wrong. Here is the breakdown.
The “System” Pick: Staffordshire Knot (16/1)
Let’s not overcomplicate this. The Timewise Master Rating for Staffordshire Knot is 337.5.
The next best horse (Champagne Kid) is rated 325.6.
That is a 12-point clear advantage.
In handicap terms, that is a chasm. He is priced at 16/1 because he is carrying top weight (11-12) in heavy ground, which scares off the casual punters. But look closer: he finished 2nd in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park in similar conditions last time out. He is the class act in the field dropping into a handicap. At 16/1, the data says he is a massive each-way price.
The “Form” Pick: County Final (4/1)
If you want the horse with the most progressive profile, it’s County Final.
He arrives off the back of a 2nd place in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Limerick. When a novice holds their own in Graded company and then steps into a handicap, they are usually well ahead of the mark. He loves the heavy ground, he stays, and he’s unexposed. He is the rightful favourite.
The “Trap”: Duke Silver (12/1)
Duke Silver won the key trial for this race over 23.5f here last month, beating half this field (Small Town Hero, Sysko, etc.).
The problem: He’s been hiked in the weights, and today is 3 miles in Heavy. That extra distance in deeper ground is exactly where form turns around. I expect the horses he beat last time—who are now better off at the weights—to close the gap.
The Verdict
This is a split-stake strategy race. You have a solid, progressive favourite and a massively overpriced top-weight.
The Win: County Final (4/1). The Grade 2 novice form is the strongest line in the book. He should simply be too good for the exposed handicappers.
The Value (Each-Way): Staffordshire Knot (16/1). The ratings anomaly of the day. He is statistically superior to this field. With mostly bookies paying extra places on a 24-runner handicap, he is the smart play to hit the frame