This isn’t about class. It’s about who can run to 60 tonight.
In low-grade Dundalk handicaps, historical peaks mean nothing. Old 70+ ratings are just noise. What matters is recent, repeatable figures over course and distance.
Strip it back and the race becomes clearer.
The Solid One: Alex Belardo
He posted a 64 last time and has been holding form around the 60–64 mark. That’s the strongest recent figure in the field and it came over this track and trip.
More importantly, he’s doing it now — not six months ago. In a race where very few can string solid runs together, that counts for plenty.
If he runs to his latest level, he’s right in the mix.
The Consistent Threat: Distillate
She keeps turning up and running her race. A recent 64, and several efforts in the high 50s to low 60s. She’s already won over course and distance and tends to finish her races off.
In this grade, reliability is currency. She doesn’t need to improve — just repeat.
The Handicap Angle: Manhattan Dandy
Running off a basement mark and recently posted a figure good enough to win this if reproduced. He doesn’t have much in hand, but neither does anything else.
In a compressed field, small margins matter. He’s one that could outrun market expectations.
The Short One: Petes Dream
On paper he looks solid enough, but the most recent run over course and distance lacked punch. Earlier better figures are there, but they’re not fresh. At a short price in a weak handicap, you want something progressing or at least finishing strongly. He’s been doing neither.
That makes him opposable if the market latches on.
The Bottom Line
This is not a race to overthink. Very few in here win often. It’s about current output, not reputation.
Alex Belardo has the strongest recent number.
Distillate brings dependable form.
Manhattan Dandy is the value play if the price holds.
In races like this, stick with repeatable figures and be wary of short-priced runners without recent evidence to justify it.