13:20 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 1m Mdn
Believe Me Now is a newcomer from a yard whose debutants generally improve with the run. Buzzen has shown little promise in two starts and will qualify for handicaps after this race. Doctor Nightingale is an interesting newcomer from the Make Believe sire, and her pedigree includes several winners. Fast Tara has shown promise with a step forward from her debut and finished ahead of re-opposing Love Mocha last time out. Good Fit was well beaten on debut and may need more experience to show improvement. Grey Leader is a newcomer with an interesting pedigree and could build on whatever he achieves in this race. Gunsight may have found three runs in the space of 18 days too much and may find this trip on the short side on his return, drawn widest. Hokusai has shown ability in two starts as a juvenile and the trip could be ideal for him now. Hutton Glen is an interesting newcomer from a yard known to get first-time out winners. Lasting Peace showed little promise on debut, but signs in his pedigree suggest that softer ground may suit him. Love Mocha is a promising type who should progress after finishing fourth on debut. Vikki Wall finished only half a length behind the winner on debut but did not perform as well over the same C&D when last seen in January, and is up in trip.
The top three horses with potential to win are Doctor Nightingale, Fast Tara, and Love Mocha. Grey Leader and Hokusai also have potential to win or place, while Believe Me Now, Hutton Glen, and Lasting Peace are less likely to be in the running for the win. Gunsight and Vikki Wall may also struggle to be competitive in this race.
13:55 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 1m Hcap
The top three horses that have the potential to win are Knockmore Prince, Rhythm King, and Master Garvey.
Knockmore Prince has shown improvement since switching to AW handicaps and left on the same mark for his second at Dundalk last month. The blinkers could have the same effect as the cheekpieces, and he should be involved if conditions suit.
Rhythm King won on handicap debut at Gowran in October and should appreciate the step back up in trip. He’s proven in conditions and should be ready to come on for the recent run at Naas.
Master Garvey produced a career best when third of 14 on seasonal return at Naas last week, and he should relish the step back up in trip. He finished well and should be considered back up in trip.
Rio Largo has run some creditable races in defeat on AW, and the step back up in trip should suit if he’s as good on turf. The Snapper showed promise in maidens and could have more to offer on his first run with a tongue-tie fitted.
Givemefive’s handicap mark looks tough, while Indian Outlaw needs to build on her recent form. Not Even Maybe is lightly raced and significantly up in trip, so it’s unclear whether she can compete with the others. Jackie Brown hasn’t shown any improvement, and Trident Star has shown very little since hitting the frame in an AW claimer in November. Secret Sauce hasn’t shown much in her three maidens but could do better on handicap debut with cheekpieces on for the first time.
14:30 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 1m Hcap
The race features a large field of runners with varying form and chances. After analyzing the comments, here are my top three selections along with some other horses that could be in with a chance or those that are unlikely to win:
- James Henry – Although he is returning from a long layoff, James Henry has some solid form over this trip and has run well on this course before. He has won on heavy ground in the past and could be in with a good chance to win here.
- Skontonovski – Although he has been on a losing run lately, Skontonovski has some decent form over this distance and has won on soft ground in the past. He also has a good record at this course and could bounce back to form in this race.
- Ghumama – Although she has yet to win on turf, Ghumama has shown some good form on the all-weather tracks and is back down in distance for this race. With a good draw and a yard in good form, she could be a surprise winner.
Other horses that could be in with a chance include Scarlet Dancer, Asisaid, and Tellthemi’mhere. Scarlet Dancer has been running consistently in recent starts, Asisaid is coming off a career-best win but has to carry a penalty, and Tellthemi’mhere has shown some promise in AW maidens and could be a live outsider.
Horses that are unlikely to win include Prince of Peace, who has struggled on the flat and over hurdles, and Narlita, who is yet to show her best form and is making her debut for a new yard
15:05 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 5f Stks
Thunderbear: Has shown potential in his career, including a win at Fairyhouse in September, but is coming back from a 6-month break and has to wear blinkers for the first time. Tough ask.
Escaping Thejungle: Lightly-raced and won over C&D, followed up with a very good second in a nursery at Dundalk last time out. Respected and should be a big player if ready after 167 days off.
Polar Bear: Winner at Naas in October and finished eighth in a nursery at Naas in heavy ground last time out. Gelded since then and will wear cheekpieces for the first time. Should get closer to Escaping Thejungle at these weights if fully tuned up.
Lovejoy: Won on debut at Navan but was disappointing in a nursery at Dundalk last time out. Early days in her career and may do better back on turf if ready for her return.
Charming Lady: Won over C&D last summer but has been hit and miss since then. Needs to bounce back from a low-key run at Dundalk when last seen 167 days ago.
Sam’s Xpress: Progressive with back-to-back AW wins in recent weeks. Has race fitness on his side, but this is much tougher on these terms and he needs to prove he’s as good on turf.
Escaping Thejungle, Polar Bear, and Sam’s Xpress are the top three horses with potential to win. Escaping Thejungle has won over C&D and ran a very good second in a nursery at Dundalk last time out. Polar Bear has won at Naas and is coming back after a gelding operation and will wear cheekpieces for the first time. Sam’s Xpress is highly progressive with back-to-back wins on the AW, but needs to prove himself on turf. The other horses may struggle to compete with these top three contenders.
15:40 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 5f Hcap
Tawaazon looks to be the one to beat based on his recent form, narrowly missing out on his hat-trick at Navan last week and carrying only a 3lb penalty here. Iva Batt could be one to consider as he appreciates cut in the ground and is back on a good mark, and with blinkers on for the first time, he could have a good chance on yard debut. It’ll Do My Day might also be worth noting with a tongue strap on for the first time, but he has a long way to go to catch up with Tawaazon.
Distillate might struggle back at the minimum trip after winning over 7f, and Ecclesiastical is 7lb wrong for this assignment. Tai Sing Yeh failed to back up his career-best effort and needs to prove himself in these conditions, while Mass Gathering is out of form and may need this run. Mr Stanley doesn’t look particularly well treated at present, and Bang Po looks hard to make a case for. That’s Mad could be best watched on his return from a long break.
16:15 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 1m6f Hcap
This race features a large field of runners, with many of them having little chance of winning. Theonewedreamof is one of the more interesting runners in this race, having won a maiden on the Flat and a hurdle race over the winter. He has been running consistently well and his recent form suggests he is capable of running a big race. Too Bright is another runner who has been running well over hurdles and has a decent record on the Flat. He handles soft ground and is likely to be in the mix at the finish. Loudest Whisper is a regular here, has won over hurdles and has several near misses on the Flat. She ran well on seasonal return here a year ago and seems to go on most types of ground, so she is another that is worth considering.
Bolero hasn’t won in 16 attempts but has some good runs last autumn, including here and when chasing home an easy winner over this trip at Navan on heavy. He lacks a recent run but conditions to suit and could go well. Carslake has shown nothing on turf but has mildly encouraging Polytrack form over the winter and an improved effort over hurdles recently on heavy ground. He handles these conditions so could improve.
Deep Sigh is first run for the yard after leaving David Simcock and has cheekpieces on for the first time. He has not shown much on his recent outings, and he may need this run to return to form. Dollar Value is a versatile sort who has won under all rules but has been absent since October and ideally wants better ground. Ferrum struggled off his opening Flat mark in 2021, and his hurdle form since then has been nothing much. He is unlikely to figure on his return from an 11-month absence. Double Kodiac has not won since his debut in France in 2018 and has struggled at Dundalk over the winter. He is out of the handicap here, and it is hard to make a case for him.
Duke Otto showed glimpses of ability over hurdles last year and ran well last month in his comeback run. He has not yet shown anything on the Flat and is 7lb out of the handicap. Flaggy Lane struggled in a Dundalk claimer recently and is hard to see him figuring on his handicap debut. Kanzino won a couple of sellers for Karl Burke last year but was unplaced in a Dundalk claimer recently and is probably plenty high enough in the handicap at the moment. Stellify is down to a rating she should be competitive off again but did not improve on her last week’s return to the Flat.
Mojazaffah is lightly raced in Britain and was bought for 6,000gns at Tattersalls July Sales. He has not shown much on his recent outings, and it is hard to know what to expect on his yard debut. The Riastrad’s form since joining the yard has been disappointing, and he is hard to fancy. Yenillik handles soft ground but has been poor on the Flat and is unlikely to figure on his return from November.
In summary, Theonewedreamof, Too Bright, and Loudest Whisper are the three horses with the most potential to win this race. Bolero and Carslake could also be in with a chance, while the rest of the field are unlikely to feature in the finish.
16:50 BellewstownThu 6 Apr 1m4f Mdn
All Ways And Ever – Thrice-raced filly with poor form in maiden races. Long absent and best watched.
Art Of Silence – Fair bumper winner who won at Ballinrobe last May. Not seen since unseating rider early on hurdles debut at Listowel in September. May need this run.
Black Smoke – Once-raced on the Flat, fell in novice hurdle at Thurles on NH debut 19 days ago. Significantly up in trip, tongue-tie on for 1st time.
Douglas Dc – Thrice-raced on the Flat with a maiden hurdle win at Tramore last year. Showed up well in Curragh maiden over this trip. Lacks a recent run but goes well fresh. Place claims.
Ely Bandero – Twice-raced gelding. Pulled up in a maiden at Dundalk on his last outing. Easily overlooked.
Encore De Mer – Twice-raced filly, well beaten on both starts for Kieran Cotter last autumn over much shorter trips. Significantly up in trip, eligible for a mark after this.
I Fall To Pieces – Modestly-bred Kargali 6yo an unlikely one to make an immediate impact.
Indulging – Modest gelding with moderate hurdles form of late. Hard to see him playing a major role.
Star Kissed – Well-bred filly seeking the all-important winning bracket after two narrow misses last year. Rallied well to finish a close second over this trip at Killarney on soft ground. Promising type and will take all the beating.
The Gossiper – Three-time bumper winner who ran below expectations in Flat maidens last June. Should have more to offer on the level but possibly more so in handicaps. Has run well fresh.
Tom The Plasterer – Tailed off on bumper debut in January, blinkered now and can only be watched.
Way Forward – Twice-raced filly, easily passed over on turf debut after a couple of moderate Dundalk efforts.
Assessment: Star Kissed looks the standout pick here, having been narrowly beaten in two runs last year, including over this trip at Killarney. The well-bred filly looks the one to beat and is likely to start as the favourite.
Douglas Dc, who won a maiden hurdle at Tramore last year and showed up well in a Curragh maiden over this trip, has a chance of placing, especially given his liking for fresh runs.
The Gossiper is an interesting runner who has won three bumpers and has run below expectations on the Flat. He may have more to offer now he’s back on turf, but he may need the run.
Black Smoke is an unknown quantity after falling on his debut over hurdles, but he’s significantly up in trip and could surprise if he takes to the longer distance.
The others in the field, including Art of Silence and Indulging, have question marks against their names, while the likes of All Ways And Ever and Tom The Plasterer are best watched.
Leave a comment