My picks for Nottingham Wednesday

·

13:30 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 5f Mdn Stks

Bright (IRE) is an interesting contender in this race, being a half-brother to a good performer in Sinjaal and with a pedigree that suggests he should be suited to sprinting. Market confidence could be a positive sign for his chances.

Popular Dream has shown some ability in his only start to date, finishing third at Chelmsford despite being green. His pedigree is also favorable for a switch to turf, although the drop in distance may not be ideal. Nonetheless, with the yard in good form, he could improve and be competitive.

Fair Wind has a good pedigree with several winning siblings and a great-granddam who won the Cheveley Park Stakes. However, he has not raced much and has only had four starts so far in 2023. The hood may help him to settle, but it remains to be seen how he will perform on debut.

Of the others, Sera Dawn has shown promise in her first two starts, but her most recent run at Chelmsford was disappointing due to her being too keen. Storm Fox has also shown promise in his two starts last year, and it’s possible that he could improve this year.

Overall, my top three selections for this race would be Bright (IRE), Popular Dream, and Storm Fox (IRE). Bright (IRE) has a good pedigree and could improve on his recent run, while Popular Dream has shown ability in his only start and comes from a yard in form. Storm Fox (IRE) has shown promise in his previous runs, and if he has improved over the winter, he could be a contender in this race.

14:05 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 1m Class Stks

  1. Invested – This Irish-bred filly has shown significant improvement on her second start when winning a 6f maiden at Chelmsford City comfortably. She has been off the track for 39 days and should relish the step up to 1m. If she can transfer her Polytrack form to the turf, she looks the one to beat.
  2. Goldkit – This French-bred colt has made the frame in all four starts, including two close seconds over 1m on the Polytrack. He ran a creditable fourth on his handicap debut at Wolverhampton and will have no fitness issues. The ground on turf is the only question mark, but he looks a solid contender.
  3. Expressionless – This colt failed to build on his promising debut form, but he did finish in the minor placings over 1m on his next two starts. He may have found the 1m2f trip too far on his final start last year, but he drops back to 1m here, which should suit. He will need to find a bit more, but he has the potential to be in the mix.

14:40 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 1m Mdn Stks

This is a competitive race with several horses having potential to run well. Here is my assessment of the runners:

  1. Bauhinia Rhapsody – This gelding showed promise in his two starts last year, and has been gelded since then which could bring out further improvement. He has the best form on offer and is the one to beat.
  2. Bleak – He showed promise on his debut at Newcastle, and can be expected to improve for that run. He is from a top yard and is a major player here.
  3. Regheeb – This well-bred colt makes his debut for a yard that is among the winners. He is related to several winners and could be worth watching in the market.

Others to consider: Italian Magic, Military Tycoon, and Yeoman.

Overall, I think Bauhinia Rhapsody is the most likely winner, but Bleak could be a threat if he improves as expected. Regheeb is an interesting newcomer and could be worth including in exotics.

15:15 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 1m Hcap

Just Bring It (IRE) has a progressive profile and could be tough to beat after winning at Kempton last month. Woodstock is another with solid claims, having won his last two starts on the all-weather and now switching to turf. Racingbreaks Ryder (IRE) is open to improvement and makes his handicap and seasonal debut with his trainer in good form, making him a good each-way option.

Solutre (IRE) and Serious Look (IRE) are both capable of running well if they can reproduce their better efforts from last season, while Spioradalta is more exposed but has solid form on soft ground and could be in the mix. Goodfella (IRE) is another who could improve further and is worth considering, while Supreme King (IRE) and Solutre (IRE) are also not without a chance.

Gifted Angel (IRE) is inconsistent and winless from nine starts, making him less compelling than some of his rivals in this race.

My top 3 horses for this race would be Just Bring It, Woodstock, and Spioradalta. Just Bring It has a progressive profile and won well on his last start at Kempton, so he could be a big player if he handles the return to grass. Woodstock has won his last two races on the all-weather and is closely related to a soft-ground winner, so he could handle the conditions on his handicap and turf debut. Spioradalta has been consistent in handicaps on his last three starts as a 2-year-old and is well-suited by the conditions, so he has solid claims on his seasonal debut.

Goodfella, Solutre, and Serious Look are also worth considering. Goodfella was progressive last season and could do better this year, while Solutre has shown good form in the past and could be a danger if he is back to his best after a break. Serious Look won a race at Epsom on soft ground last year and returns after being gelded, so he could improve and challenge for the places.

15:50 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 2m Hcap

This is a competitive handicap with a mix of horses that have shown good form in both Flat and jumping races. Here is my assessment of each horse and their chances of winning the race:

Orin Swift: A consistent performer who has won at this course and has a good first-time-out record. He has a competitive mark and should be in the mix at the finish.

Tin Fandango: This horse goes very well on soft and heavy ground, and won a competitive handicap at Newbury in October. He is only 4lbs higher today, so he should be competitive again.

Tuddenham Green: This horse has been running well over hurdles and won easily two weeks ago in just a two-runner race, showing he acts on soft ground. He retains plenty of potential on the level from this sort of mark and should be considered as a live contender.

Haarar: Won two handicaps last year and ran his best race when finishing second at Newmarket on his final outing. The 3lb rise is fair, and he reappears for an in-form yard. He could be a big danger to the top three in the betting.

Jon Snow: A useful hurdler for Willie Mullins who has shown some improvement on the level since being fitted with blinkers. He should come on for his recent run at Kempton and could be one to watch.

Coquelicot: Won three times over hurdles and has been running well on the level before her last effort at Southwell. She should be better suited by the return to turf and has the potential to improve.

Justus: A French maiden winner who showed some promise in handicaps at York and Ascot in September. He needs to leave his last run behind, but the market could guide his chances.

Caldwell: A winner on the flat at Kempton over 2m and followed that with three in-frame efforts. He was possibly unsuited by firm ground in July, but his overall form is solid, and he has to be respected.

De Vega’s Warrior: Has never stood much racing but showed some improvement on his recent run at Kempton. He is worth another go at 2m and could be a dark horse in this race.

Byron Hill: Fit from hurdling and won at Ffos Las on good ground last year. He has been placed twice over 2m on soft ground and could be an each-way option.

Abraaj: Won once in France last year but has struggled since moving to the UK. He is best watched until showing some improvement.

Based on the above, my top three horses for this race are Tin Fandango, Tuddenham Green, and Orin Swift. Tin Fandango has shown good form on soft ground and should be suited by the conditions. Tuddenham Green has been running well over hurdles and is a horse with plenty of potential on the flat. Orin Swift is a consistent performer who has won at this course and has a good first-time-out record.

16:25 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 1m2f Hcap

Reflective Star looks to be a leading contender in this race. She has shown improvement in her last two runs over 1m on the AW, and she should appreciate the step up in trip to 1m2f on turf. With minor honours in her last two races, she could be ready to take the next step and win here.

Entrancement has also shown improvement in her last few starts, and she is coming off a convincing win on soft ground at this track. She has been raised 6lb for that win, but she should still be competitive in this race, particularly if the ground remains soft.

Fantizzy is an interesting contender on her handicap and seasonal debut. She has shown promise in her three maiden/novice races last summer, and she should appreciate the longer trip of 1m2f here. She also has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side, which could prove useful in these conditions.

Overall, Reflective Star, Entrancement, and Fantizzy are the top three picks for this race. Reflective Star looks to be the most likely winner, but Entrancement and Fantizzy are both capable of causing an upset if they continue to improve.

16:55 NottinghamWed 5 Apr 1m2f Hcap

  1. Ectocross – Showed clear promise when coming from virtually last to first to win his handicap debut at Lingfield last month. He goes up just 2lb for that win and is open to further improvement. The soft ground may be a question mark, but he is still the one to beat.
  2. Peaceful Night – Her best efforts came in three novice races last season and she is well-bred for this step up in trip. She has only raced on the AW so far, but her pedigree suggests that she should handle the turf. She could be an each-way option.
  3. Dog Fox – Showed some promise on debut at Leicester last year and is bred to stay this distance. He has not been seen since being gelded, but could improve for the break and could be a danger to the top two.

In terms of the other horses, Crosstitch has not shown much since moving to his new yard and Angel’s Voice may struggle against improving rivals. Lilla Cross and Papa Ricco are both unproven over this distance and Racing Demon has struggled in his previous handicaps.

Overall, Ectocross looks like the one to beat and could improve again for his new yard. Peaceful Night and Dog Fox are both capable of running well and could be each-way options.

Leave a comment

Get updates

From art exploration to the latest archeological findings, all here in our weekly newsletter.

Subscribe