A look at Dundalk Tuesday

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17:15 DundalkTue 11 Apr 5f Mdn

  1. Brighter (FR) – The filly has an impressive pedigree and comes from a yard that has introduced many smart 2-year-olds at this venue. Her half-siblings include Charm Appeal, a listed winner up to 1m, and Exchequer, a useful winner up to 7f. With an obvious appeal and strong breeding, she is a top contender.
  2. Ally Pally (IRE) – This filly is a noteworthy newcomer with a promising pedigree. Her dam is a 7f winner, and she is a half-sister to a smart winner up to 8.2f. She is the first foal, which is often a positive sign, and her sire National Defense has produced some good runners.
  3. Byzantine Empress – This filly is another with a promising pedigree, as her dam is a 6f 2yo winner and she is a half-sister to several winners up to 7f. Her breeding suggests she should be a likely type, and she has the potential to run well.

Other horses that could be in with a chance include Vanity Pays, who is highly respected on debut and has a strong pedigree, and Love Ya, who is bred to be sharp and could be guided by the market. Mount Whitney is unlikely to win, based on her previous run, but could improve with experience.

17:45 DundalkTue 11 Apr 1m4f Hcap

  1. Celtic Revival (IRE) – This 3-time C&D winner is coming off a career-best performance when winning a 14-runner handicap at this C&D 18 days ago. He was forced to switch over 1f out and leading close home. His consistency since stepping up to 1m2f/1m4f is admirable, and with his recent form and sound claims again in this groove, he is the top contender.
  2. Dalvey – The 4-time course winner finished creditable sixth of 16 in handicap at Leopardstown (10f, heavy, 33/1) just 6 days ago. He is mostly in good form during the winter, and there is no reason why he won’t give another good account back on AW.
  3. Bring Us Paradise – This C&D winner had a solid effort when fourth of 9 in a handicap (22/1) at this C&D 26 days ago. He was never nearer but ran creditably. His previous form before bursting a blood vessel over hurdles in December was solid, and he could be a contender if he repeats that form.

Other horses that could be in with a chance include Cara Susanna, who has shown promise in turf maidens and is now handicapping for her leading yard, and Supreme Law, who had a respectable debut over C&D last month but needs to leave his last run in his wake if he’s to feature here. Abraham, Hearts Are Trumps, and Noxareno are unlikely to win based on their recent form.

18:15 DundalkTue 11 Apr 1m2f Mdn

In this 1m2f maiden race at Dundalk, Red Riding Hood is likely to be a strong contender. She has already shown some promise, having finished second in her only start as a juvenile and running well on her return at Naas, and has entries in some high-profile races. With her pedigree and the support of Ryan Moore, she could be hard to beat.

Dalliances is a newcomer who has the breeding to be competitive in this race. Her dam won at 1m4f and 1m5f, and she is a half-sister to two Dundalk winners. Her trainer is in good form, which adds to her appeal.

A Moment Like This is returning from a break since July, but she has shown promise in her limited starts. Her dam was a champion 3yo dirt filly in the US, which suggests she could handle the surface at Dundalk, and the step up in trip may suit her. She is also wearing a tongue-tie for the first time, which could help her progress.

Shamwari is a newcomer with an interesting pedigree, being a daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify and a half-sister to a US winner by American Pharoah. While she has no fancy entries, her connections suggest she could be a decent type and it may be worth watching the market for any support.

Letiza made some late headway on her debut over 1m here, and with that experience under her belt, she may continue to progress. However, she faces a significant step up in trip, which could be a concern.

Nunca is a sister to a smart winner and has cost a significant sum as a yearling, but she is the second-string from her yard and may need more experience before making an impact.

Fancy Nancy has shown little in her two starts and is unlikely to contend, while Bride Tree is up significantly in trip and has shown little in her two starts. Miss Heartbreak is a homebred filly who may need more time to develop.

In summary, Red Riding Hood is the one to beat in this race, with Dalliances and A Moment Like This likely to be her main challengers. Shamwari is an interesting newcomer to keep an eye on, while Letiza may continue to progress but could be out of her depth over this distance.

18:45 DundalkTue 11 Apr 1m Hcap

In this 1m handicap, there are a few horses who have shown consistency and could be in with a chance of winning.

Feature This is a C&D winner who finished fourth over this course and distance in a handicap 11 days ago. She has continued to run well and despite a wide draw, she is one of the more reliable options and could make her presence felt from the same mark. Royal Tribute has had plenty of solid efforts here, and ran well to be second 11 days ago after being caught in a pocket at a vital moment. He could easily return to winning ways if getting the breaks. Sunset Nova is a five-time course winner who has been dropped in ratings after losing form. If she can revive her form, she has a chance.

Boadicea Belle won three times at Chelmsford over 6f-7f and had her best run for this yard when finishing third over 1m2f here 11 days ago. She is dropping back to 1m, which won’t hurt, but has a poor draw for a horse who likes to be up with the pace.

Tanseeq finished a respectable fourth over C&D before disappointing when sent off favourite at Wolverhampton (7f). Returned to 1m, he may perform better.

Cometh The Man has not been threatening to make a breakthrough and has lost all 48 starts. Manhattan Dandy is a reserve and is still a maiden after 38 starts, so can be readily opposed.

Deuteronomy has the potential to run a good race, with some late headway when making the frame at Gowran and best effort when fifth of 15 over 1m at Bellewstown. He makes his AW debut, but his half-brother won here.

Capla Knight has placed here in December, but has struggled since. The tongue-tie may help.

Kratos was a winner for Roger Varian, but has been well beaten in two starts here for Ado McGuinness and was well beaten on heavy ground on his recent debut for this yard.

Double Martini won three times in Britain early in his career, but hasn’t won in three years and lacks a run.

Eruption ran well in first-time blinkers over 6f here in January but hasn’t been as effective without the headgear since, and stamina looks an issue over this far.

Pastel Power was twice placed on the AW for Sir Michael Stoute before disappointing in a turf maiden. Gelded prior to kicking off for this yard and has finished well held in two visits here. Cheekpieces have been added, and he could improve.

Valhalla’s Dream has shown some initial promise on the Flat, but hasn’t progressed and has shown nothing over hurdles. He makes his polytrack debut.

Aurora Nova was disqualified from fourth here last time after weighing in 10lb light and is raised 2f in distance. She is also a reserve.

Holy Divine is a reserve who has been ordinary since back from a break.

Overall, Feature This, Royal Tribute, and Sunset Nova look the most likely to contend for the win. Deuteronomy, Tanseeq, and Pastel Power could also be in with a chance.

19:15 DundalkTue 11 Apr 7f Mdn

Autoline is a debutant from a good family and should be noted in the betting. Broadhurst is a promising type and should do better for his powerful stable, having finished ninth on his debut in heavy ground. Change Sings is also well-bred and comes from a hugely progressive yard, with entries in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and Irish Derby. Pearl Of Australia was gradually progressive last year and placed in a Listowel maiden over this trip, and with his half-sister having won here during the winter, he should be thereabouts.

Tanaiyla is a fairly useful filly who was runner-up on debut at Navan and has placed in a C&D nursery off 75. She was too free and well held back in maiden company on her final start at two but has place claims at best. Cristo Redentor is a Slade Power gelding who may improve for his debut run, while Emorcee finished last in a minor event on debut and is significantly up in trip. Curzon Queen and Dance The Flame were well beaten on their debuts and will need more time. Shamastar has one run under his belt and may improve. Second Fiddle was well beaten in her three turf maidens and is an outsider on AW debut.

19:45 DundalkTue 11 Apr 6f Hcap

In this 6f handicap race at Dundalk, there are several horses that have a chance of winning. Let’s start by looking at some of the positives and negatives of each horse.

Circles has previously won at this course and distance, but her hat-trick bid came up short on her last outing, and this is also her first run at 6f, so she may not be suited to the distance. She could be high in the weights.

Collective Power has won twice at this course over 5f, and is just as good at 6f. He is well-in with Tai Sing Yeh, who he clashed with at this course in February, and has held his form well since then. He has a good chance and is drawn in stall 2.

Furnace Creek is a lightly-raced winner who has run poorly on his final two starts either side of being gelded. He has a new trainer and could revive, but it is difficult to make a case for him.

Half Nutz is versatile trip-wise and won a 7f handicap on soft at the Curragh in September, but he was below form on his last outing, finishing eighth in a handicap at Naas on heavy ground.

Inishmot Prince is thoroughly reliable at this course, having won five times here, but he is on a career-high mark and that told when he finished third on his latest visit. He may place again.

Ivasecret has not taken to hurdling, but he has won four times up to 7f and ran well here in December over 6f and 7f. He has a good chance and is shortlisted.

Jered Maddox has won three times at this course, with his latest win being in February over 7f. He has been beaten in two further 7f handicaps and is a past winner at 6f, but his recent attempts at sprinting were underwhelming.

Might and Mercy is a consistent filly who has won two of her last four, including a 7f race at this course. She is up 6lb and is drawn in stall 12, but she has the speed for 6f.

Punk Poet has won five times, including three at this course, but he is not in the best of form right now, and all his wins have been over further.

Rocky Dreams is a four-time C&D winner, and he won the 7f claimer here 11 days ago for the second year running. He is capable of holding his own in handicaps but may be better over further nowadays.

Shoebox King won at Down Royal in September, but he was eleventh of 14 in a handicap at Naas on his last outing. This is his AW debut.

Tai Sing Yeh has won four times at this course, including a clearcut victory over C&D in March. He is drawn in stall 1 and has it in him to bounce back from his recent poor form.

Based on the analysis above, the top three horses that have the potential to win this race are Collective Power, Ivasecret, and Might and Mercy. Tai Sing Yeh and Inishmot Prince may also be in with a chance.

20:15 DundalkTue 11 Apr 6f Hcap

In this 6f handicap race at Dundalk, several horses have different levels of experience and form to consider.

Amemri is coming off an impressive 40-1 victory over 7f at this course 18 days ago, but drops back to 6f and may not be ideally suited to the shorter trip. However, she has only been nudged up 2 lb and is likely to run another prominent race if in the same form.

Little Keilee was unlucky in her penultimate start when beaten under 4l over 7f here before finishing strongly to be third to Amemri last time. She drops back to 6f with cheekpieces fitted and could be a strong contender for the win.

Inthepoorhouse showed some promise when finishing third on her handicap debut at Galway over 7f after being gelded. She is now blinkered by a new yard and could benefit from dropping back to 6f.

Zaza Zut was respectable when third to Not Too Real Bad over 5f at this course last time, and the extra furlong here should be to her advantage. She is returning from a 95-day break, but she has the potential to make her presence felt in this race.

Californiagoldrush is still lightly raced, but she was only sixth on her handicap debut over C&D and will need to improve here. Meggy Moo was seventh in a nursery at the Curragh before a long break, and her confidence level is unknown at this point.

Andrassy goes handicapping off a low mark but has shown nothing noteworthy in turf maidens. Asgard’s Captain makes his handicap debut after quiet runs in maidens and has changed stables, while Millieblue has shown only minor promise in turf maidens and is best watched on her AW/handicap debut.

Not Too Real Bad, Rumbled Again, The Stray Sod, and American In Paris have all been out of form recently and have little to recommend them based on their recent performances.

Based on the comments, the top three horses with the potential to win this race are Little Keilee, Amemri, and Zaza Zut. Inthepoorhouse could also be in with a chance of a place, while the remaining horses are unlikely to win.

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