13:50 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 1m Nov Stks
- Exoplanet – This horse has been consistent and showed a lot of potential in his recent races. He won a 15-runner novice race at Newbury and later finished last in the Group 3 1m Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. The trainer seems to be confident in his potential, and he holds Group entries.
- Torito – This Kingman half-brother to Journey shaped with considerable promise when he was a beaten favourite at Newbury (1m, soft). He also holds a Derby entry and looks like a useful prospect.
- Overactive – This filly showed encouraging efforts in both of her visits to Wolverhampton, and she is a well-bred filly who is entitled to make a better 3yo.
Other Horses with Potential:
- Playactor – Although he only finished seventh of 12 at Lingfield, he looked like he needed the experience, and he is likely to progress.
- Sir Raj – This horse lacks experience and will be making his soft-ground debut, which may hold him back. However, he is a half-brother to useful Flat stayer Rajinsky and dual 1m2f winner Bahkit.
Horses Unlikely to Win:
- Aussi Mandate – This horse lost many lengths at the start and also finished lame when tailed off over 1m at Goodwood in August. He is best watched.
Overall, Exoplanet, Torito, and Overactive seem to be the top three horses with the potential to win the race, while Playactor and Sir Raj are worth watching.
14:20 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 1m2f Hcap
- Latin Verse – This horse won his maiden at Lingfield (1m4f AW) with a bit in hand, and he looks nicely progressive. Dropping back to 1m2f should be no problem, and he could prove his initial mark to be on the lenient side.
- Eyetrap – Although he is yet to win a race, he has shown promise in his three runs so far. His saddle slipped in his second run, but he still managed to make the frame at Kempton (1m). He has a middle-distance pedigree and should do well in handicaps.
- Dawn Vega – Although he failed to justify favouritism on his return at Chelmsford (1m AW), it was not a bad run, and he should benefit from both this surface and the longer trip. He is yet to win a race, but he is suited by this extra distance and merits respect.
Other Horses with Potential:
- Bohemian Breeze – This Galileo colt has shown similar form in his three qualifying runs at about 1m and looks like the type to pay his way in handicaps for a yard in good early-season form.
- Mudskipper – Although he was unsuited by the fast ground on debut, he showed promise in his two later runs on soft, particularly when second to a Godolphin horse at Goodwood (1m). This step up in trip is an obvious move now into handicaps and could go well.
Horses Unlikely to Win:
- Kadovar – Although he was the runner-up in a soft-ground maiden over 1m here in October, he was disappointing at Doncaster on return, and others make more appeal.
Overall, Latin Verse, Eyetrap, and Dawn Vega seem to be the top three horses with potential to win the race, while Bohemian Breeze and Mudskipper are worth watching. Kadovar is unlikely to win.
14:50 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 5f Hcap
- Fix You – This filly looked impressive when winning her Thirsk debut last April (5f) and then finished second of nine in a 6f Kempton novice 11 days ago. She looks like she’s got in lightly for her handicap debut and could be a major player.
- Castan – This horse has good form figures of 132212 in nurseries, and he showed that he can deal with this sort of mark when runner-up on his AW debut. He goes well on a soft surface, and he should be in the mix.
- Thankuappreciate – This horse was nicely progressive in his five starts last season, going close to defying a penalty the final time at Redcar (5f, good to soft). His trainer is good at bringing along sprinters, and he is highly respected on his handicap debut.
Other Horses with Potential:
- Betweenthesticks – Although she is yet to win a race, she is a three-time juvenile winner, landing a 5f nursery at York in October. She possibly found the run coming too quickly when last of six over C&D after, and she could bounce back.
- Desperate Hero – He has consistent form in his five starts last season (5f-6f; maiden/novices) and looks on the right sort of mark for his handicap debut. His sire was very capable on soft ground, and he should be considered.
Horses Unlikely to Win:
- Absolutelyflawless – Although she won her first two races last season, she wasn’t seen out after coming in last of six in a nursery at Newbury (5.2f, good to firm) in August. She’ll need to be right back on form to defy this mark.
- Open Market – Although she made a winning start in a 5f Cork maiden last May, she has proved too free in both starts since, and she was only sixth on her yard debut in a 5f Wolverhampton novice 26 days ago.
- Paddy’s Day – Although he returned to winning ways at Lingfield (5f AW) 18 days ago, he beat a frustrating 3yo who made it 0-16 when only mid-division at Southwell on Sunday. A 3lb rise may find him out in this better race, and ground this soft will be a first.
Overall, Fix You, Castan, and Thankuappreciate seem to be the top three horses with potential to win the race, while Betweenthesticks and Desperate Hero are worth watching. Absolutelyflawless, Open Market, and Paddy’s Day are unlikely to win.
15:25 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 5f Nov Stks
Tajalla – Returns from a year out with a big weight on soft ground, which might be challenging. Best watched.
Eternal Class – Won on debut at Thirsk and may have failed to give her true running when only fifth when odds-on at Southwell. Could yet prove to be above average, but has been off the track since then.
Fair Wind – Finished an encouraging third on debut at this C&D last week. Should improve with experience, but will need to step up significantly to win.
McCauley’s Tavern – Showed plenty of ability last season for Fozzy Stack and was recruited by shrewd new connections. Ran well for a long way at Kempton (6f) last time out, and dropping back to 5f under these conditions might suit.
Sera Dawn – Ran well on soft ground last season, with a highest RPR of 67. Showed good form when finishing second here last week, but thrown into a much better race this time.
Stocks Park – Not far away when fourth at Chelmsford but disappointed when seventh at Wolverhampton. This looks a big ask on turf debut.
Zeno – Showed promise when fifth of 11 runners at Wolverhampton on debut. Expected to improve but will need to step up to compete in this race.
Based on the above assessments, the top three horses that have the potential to win this race are: Tajalla, McCauley’s Tavern, and Sera Dawn. Tajalla is returning from a year out and is carrying a big weight on soft ground, so is best watched. McCauley’s Tavern has shown plenty of ability and could benefit from dropping back to 5f. Sera Dawn has good form on soft ground but is stepping up to a much better race this time.
Other horses that could also be in with a chance include Eternal Class and Fair Wind, who both have some potential but will need to improve to win. Stocks Park and Zeno are unlikely to win based on their recent form.
15:55 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 1m6f Listed
This race features some high-class stayers with proven ability at this level. Trueshan stands out as the one to beat, having won this race last season before going on to win the Group 2 at Ascot on Champions Day. He is a top-class stayer who relishes soft ground and should be hard to beat. Mojo Star is an interesting runner, having finished runner-up in both the Derby and St Leger as a 3-year-old. He was also runner-up in the Gold Cup at Ascot on his only start last season and could be a real danger if he’s fully tuned-up after a 300-day layoff.
Tashkhan finished fifth in the Ascot Gold Cup last season and was only 2 lengths behind Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. He should be in the mix, but more likely to place than win. Buzz is returning from a lengthy absence but has some smart hurdling form, including a win in the Cesarewitch last season. However, this is a big ask on the back of a long layoff.
Rajinsky has won two handicaps and the Cesarewitch Trial last season before finishing last in a Group 1 in France. He is likely to find this company too much. Urban Artist is a useful mare who was runner-up twice over this trip in Group 3/listed company last season, but was well held in the Park Hill at Doncaster when last seen in September and has plenty to find with the principles. Typewriter has won both starts as a 2-year-old and has run well in this grade at Chester last season. However, she was put firmly in her place at Ascot on her final start of 2022 and looks set for another struggle.
Overall, Trueshan is the one to beat, but Mojo Star has the class to give him a race. Tashkhan is likely to be in the mix for a place.
16:25 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 1m Hcap
This is a competitive handicap race over a mile, and there are several horses with chances.
Eurythmical is a likely contender after finishing as a favourite in her handicap debut at Wolverhampton, where she encountered traffic and did not run her best. The addition of cheekpieces for the first time could make a difference.
On The Pulse is another to consider, having won two of her three nurseries, including one on soft ground. Stepping up in trip to a mile should not be a problem.
Class Member has placed in all four of her starts on the AW and is making her handicap debut on turf with Ryan Moore booked to ride. She could be a factor.
Anieres Girl was third in her last run, which was over a longer trip than her previous races, and could be suited by this further step up in distance.
Ravigill showed improvement on her nursery debut over course and distance and is still lightly raced, so she could be a dark horse.
Bletchley Storm is untested on turf, but her pedigree suggests that she could improve over this longer trip.
Bonkersinabundance has shown some promise in maiden races, but this looks a tough handicap debut for her.
Molly Valentine has not progressed much since winning her maiden on the AW, and the longer trip on softer ground may not suit her.
Zebra Star has only won once and has struggled in her last two runs, so she might find this handicap too difficult.
In conclusion, Eurythmical, On The Pulse, and Class Member are the top three contenders for this race, with Anieres Girl and Ravigill as possible dark horses.
16:55 NottinghamWed 12 Apr 1m Hcap
Antagonize – Has struggled to win recently but may have needed the last run, so could be fancied to step up here.
Big Bear Hug – Has not shown consistent form, and it is unclear if she will perform well on this surface.
Buachaill – Has only won in classified company on the AW, so may be outclassed in this race.
Confils – Has not been in the best form recently and it is uncertain how much ability she retains.
Distinction – Has decent form on softish ground, but his recent form has been below par.
Eleven Eleven – Has won twice on the AW and performed creditably in a recent handicap. Could make her presence felt in her turf debut.
Mabre – Has been performing well on the AW and is as effective on turf. Looks to be a big player.
More Diamonds – Has not been consistent in her handicap form but has shown promise in soft ground.
Nine Elms – Has been in good form recently, and his third-place finish at Southwell suggests he could be right in the mix on turf.
Recorwoman – Has been unreliable in the past, and her poor start at Southwell is a concern.
Riffa Fort – Has not performed well in his previous starts and is lightly raced. Drops back in trip.
Based on the above analysis, the top three horses with potential to win are:
- Mabre
- Nine Elms
- Eleven Eleven
Others that could be in with a chance include Antagonize and More Diamonds.
Leave a comment