13:30 Sat 22 April 2023

DUBAI DUTY FREE FINEST SURPRISE STAKES (John Porter) (Group 3) (1)

Distance 1m 4f

Prize £39,697 Age 4yo+ Race State Declaration Surface Turf Runners 8

Going Soft (Good to Soft in places)

Selection: Mojo Star (IRE)

Reasoning:

Mojo Star has an impressive rating of 454.2, with odds of 9/2. Though he has won just a maiden, he was the runner-up in the Derby and St Leger in 2021 and went close in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot on his only outing last season. Two of his peak efforts were on good to soft ground, with a fair show in the 2021 Arc on heavy ground. Mojo Star was withdrawn this month because of soft ground, but his 2022 form makes him a strong contender, and he could have a big shout despite this step back down in trip.

Hurricane Lane has the highest total points (626.1) and is the favourite with odds of 8/11. However, he only had two runs last season and took two backward steps. The class act in this field, he needs to reaffirm his previous form to justify his odds, but it’s worth keeping an eye on him.

Max Vega has a good record at Newbury, having won this race last year (on good ground) and another C&D Group 3 last October (heavy). However, conceding weight all round looks tricky this time, but he has each-way claims with a rating of 439.2 and odds of 8/1.

Israr has a rating of 485.2 and odds of 6/1. He was a close third at Royal Ascot in his second handicap and won at Doncaster (1m4f, heavy) last October. Despite flopping when favourite for the November Handicap, his peak form has to be taken seriously, although this will be his first time out of handicaps.

Overall, Mojo Star seems to be the best selection due to his strong performance in past races and the potential for improvement on today’s conditions.

13:50 Sat 22 April 2023

CPMS NOVICES’ CHAMPION HANDICAP CHASE (2)

Distance 3m 20y

Prize £26,015 Age 5yo+ Race State Declaration Runners 9

Going Good to Soft (Good in places)

Selection: City Chief (IRE)

Reasoning: City Chief (IRE) is the top-rated horse in this race with a total of 601.0 points and odds of 2/1. This progressive horse has been performing well since moving to fences, winning his last two races comfortably. He demonstrated excellent jumping in his previous race at Wetherby, which was a Grade 2 event. City Chief’s suitability for today’s conditions, combined with a strong jockey and trainer rating, makes him the top choice for this race.

Other contenders to consider are:

1. Oscar Elite (IRE): With 393.6 total points and odds of 4/1, Oscar Elite has solid credentials in novice company. He has a good chasing experience and performed notably in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot.
2. Sail Away (FR): With 358.1 total points and odds of 9/2, Sail Away comes into this race fresh and dangerous. He won impressively at Warwick last May and his return from a ten-month break was encouraging.
3. Ned Tanner (IRE): With 405.8 total points and odds of 14/1, Ned Tanner has an each-way appeal. He has a 2-5 strike-rate as a chaser and ran well at Haydock over a trip shorter than his best.

While City Chief stands out as the most likely winner, it is important to consider the other contenders mentioned above as potential threats or for each-way bets.

14:05 Sat 22 April 2023

DUBAI DUTY FREE STAKES (Fred Darling) (Group 3) (1)

Distance 7f

Prize £39,697 Age 3yo Race State Declaration Surface Turf Runners 14

Going Soft (Good to Soft in places)

1. Magical Sunset (504.3 points, 9/2 odds)
2. Swingalong (438.1 points, 5/1 odds)
3. Bridestones (425.4 points, 4/1 odds)
4. Olivia Maralda (419.6 points, 8/1 odds)
5. Fully Wet (471.2 points, 16/1 odds)
6. Crystallium (467.5 points, 20/1 odds)

My selection would be Magical Sunset, as this horse has the highest total points (504.3) and reasonable odds (9/2). Furthermore, Magical Sunset has an impressive past performance, with an emphatic Listed win over C&D on heavy ground, taking her record to 3-5. The horse is open to further improvement this season and holds solid claims.

Swingalong could be a strong contender as well, as she has the second-highest rating and has shown potential over 6 furlongs. Although this is a new trip for her, she has the breeding to stay the distance and holds a leading chance based on her ratings.

An interesting outsider to consider is Olivia Maralda. Despite being ranked fourth in total points, her C&D win in July and a strong performance behind Meditate in a Curragh Group 2 race make her a potential dark horse in this race.

Overall, I would select Magical Sunset as the most likely winner, but keep an eye on Swingalong and Olivia Maralda as potential threats.

14:25 Sat 22 April 2023

CORAL SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE (LIMITED HANDICAP) (Grade 2) (1)

Distance 2m

Prize £42,712 Age 4yo+ Race State Declaration Runners 12

Going Good to Soft (Good in places)

1. Rubaud (FR) – 563.3 points
2. First Street – 516.9 points
3. Anna Bunina (FR) – 447.4 points
4. Highway One O Two (IRE) – 439.9 points
5. Royal Mogul (IRE) – 435.1 points
6. Parisencore (FR) – 404.1 points

In addition to these top six, the comments highlight Salsada (391.2 points) and Soaring Glory (386.9 points) as horses worth considering.

Selection: Rubaud (FR)

Reasoning: Rubaud is the top-rated horse with 563.3 total points and is at odds of 11/2. This French horse has a strong last race rating of 151.2 and an impressive speed rating of 78.7. Rubaud has been in good form, making all the running for his three wins over hurdles, most recently in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton with a hood fitted. While an easy lead might be unlikely, and any rain could count against him, Rubaud’s overall rating, strong recent performance, and suitability for today’s conditions make him the top choice.

Notable mentions:

1. Anna Bunina (FR) – With a total of 447.4 points and odds of 13/2, Anna Bunina has a strong history in this race, finishing second to Milkwood two years ago and winning last year. Although she is 12lb higher this time, she has demonstrated the ability to perform well under similar conditions.
2. Salsada – Although not in the top six by total points, Salsada has been noted as a useful Flat performer who has done well since switching to hurdling. She chased home the high-class Epatante in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster, and her ability to perform well on various ground conditions makes her a horse to watch in this race.

14:40 Sat 22 April 2023

WATERSHIP DOWN STUD TOO DARN HOT GREENHAM STAKES (Group 3) (1)

Distance 7f

Prize £51,039 Age 3yo Race State Declaration Surface Turf Runners 11

Going Soft (Good to Soft in places)

1. Chaldean
2. Knight (IRE)
3. Streets Of Gold (IRE)

Chaldean is the clear favourite, with an overall rating of 671.4 and odds of 4/6. This horse had a fantastic last season, winning the Acomb, Champagne Stakes, and Dewhurst. Chaldean is 2-2 under Frankie Dettori and has proven to perform well on soft ground. This horse should solidify his 2,000 Guineas credentials.

Knight (IRE) is the second choice, with an overall rating of 557.1 and odds of 6/1. This promising colt is two from two, having won a maiden at Yarmouth and the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. Knight has the potential for further improvement this season and seems to be one of the main contenders.

Streets Of Gold (IRE) is the third pick, with an overall rating of 530.4 and odds of 14/1. This horse has been incredibly consistent, winning all five of its races. Although this race will be more challenging, it’s hard to overlook a colt with such a strong winning streak.

Other factors to consider:

• Theoryofeverything has an overall rating of 397.3 but is worth mentioning due to its promising debut at Doncaster and potential for Group-race performance.
• Zoology has an overall rating of 447.3 and could perform well for its in-form stable, despite being lower-rated.

Overall, Chaldean seems to be the best bet based on its impressive record, high ratings, and strong performance under today’s conditions. However, keep an eye on Knight (IRE) and Streets Of Gold (IRE) for potential upsets, as well as Theoryofeverything and Zoology as potential dark horses.

15:00 Sat 22 April 2023

JORDAN ELECTRICS LTD FUTURE CHAMPION NOVICES’ CHASE (Grade 2) (1)

Distance 2m 4f 110y

Prize £25,978 Age 5yo+ Race State Declaration Runners 7

Going Good to Soft (Good in places)

1. Thunder Rock (IRE)
2. Balco Coastal (FR)
3. Datsalrightgino (GER)

Thunder Rock is the top-rated horse with 506.9 total points and odds of 4/1. Although he was never a serious threat in his last race at Cheltenham Festival, today’s assignment is easier, and he’s very much in the mix. Thunder Rock also has a strong speed rating of 85.5 and a jockey rating of 63.7, which could give him an edge in this race.

Balco Coastal has a total of 501.5 points and odds of 2/1, making him a strong contender as well. He has been progressive over fences until coming up short in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham, but his previous form, including chasing home high-class Gerri Colombe in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles, makes him a force to be reckoned with. Balco Coastal has the highest jockey rating of 101.1, which could be a significant factor in the race.

Datsalrightgino comes in third with 371.7 total points and odds of 9/2. He had a poor performance at Cheltenham last month, but his previous second-place finish in the Grade 2 Pendil at Kempton puts him in contention. His jockey rating of 54.9 and trainer rating of 37.6 are not as high as the other two contenders, but he could still be a serious threat if he bounces back to form.

My selection for the race would be Thunder Rock (IRE), as he has the highest overall rating, a strong speed rating, and a relatively high jockey rating. Additionally, he has shown promise in earlier races and today’s race could present an opportunity for him to get back on track. While Balco Coastal has stronger jockey and trainer ratings, Thunder Rock’s overall performance and suitability for today’s conditions make him a more appealing choice.

15:15 Sat 22 April 2023

BETGOODWIN SPRING CUP HANDICAP (2)

Distance 1m (Str)

Prize £36,078 Age 4yo+ Race State Declaration Surface Turf Runners 14

Going Soft (Good to Soft in places)

1. Lattam (IRE) – Lattam has the second-highest total points at 442.4 and is the favourite with odds of 11/4. Lattam had an impressive win in the Irish Lincoln at Curragh on soft to heavy ground, which is similar to today’s conditions. The 5lb rise in weight looks manageable for Lattam, and he seems likely to improve further. The combination of recent form and potential for improvement makes Lattam a strong contender for the win.
2. Alrehb (USA) – Alrehb has the highest total points of 481.1 and odds of 7/1. He won the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, and although his turf record is not as impressive, he has placed in three of his five turf attempts. If Alrehb can cope with the new mark and slower ground, he is a strong contender for a place in the top three.
3. Atrium – Atrium has a total of 443.9 points and odds of 10/1. He had a below-par performance in the heavy-ground Lincoln but was generally progressive otherwise. Atrium ended his 2022 campaign with wins at Newbury and Doncaster on good and soft ground, respectively. He may still have more to offer, which makes him a potential candidate for a top-three finish.

Other notable mentions include Brunch and Bless Him (IRE). Brunch has a total of 431 points and odds of 10/1. He was the runner-up in the Lincoln two years ago and performed well in a Listed event at Doncaster on his 2023 reappearance. William Buick is back on board, and Brunch should not be dismissed. Bless Him (IRE) has a total of 407.8 points and odds of 16/1. He has shown career-best form in major 7f handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot but has not raced on slow ground before, which raises a question mark about his suitability in today’s conditions.

15:35 Sat 22 April 2023

CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (PREMIER HANDICAP) (1)

Distance 3m 7f 176y

Prize £112,540 Age 5yo+ Race State Declaration Runners 23

Going Good to Soft (Good in places)

1. Dusart (IRE) – Total: 520.9, Odds: 14/1
2. Monbeg Genius (IRE) – Total: 477.2, Odds: 4/1
3. Flash Collonges (FR) – Total: 477.4, Odds: 20/1
4. Threeunderthrufive (IRE) – Total: 475.1, Odds: 16/1
5. Kittys Light – Total: 449.6, Odds: 7/2

Based on the recent form, odds, and overall ratings, my top pick for this race would be Monbeg Genius (IRE). Monbeg Genius has the third-highest total rating (477.2) among the contenders, and it currently has favorable odds at 4/1. This horse has shown consistency in its last few races, with a solid performance in its most recent race (117.8 LR).

Some other key factors supporting this selection include:

1. Speed: Monbeg Genius has a competitive speed rating of 73.4, which is one of the higher ratings in this race.
2. Jockey and Trainer: The horse’s jockey and trainer ratings (70.4 and 64.5, respectively) indicate a strong team behind the horse, which could contribute to better race performance.
3. Recent Form: Monbeg Genius has performed well in its last few races, showcasing its ability to compete effectively in this race.

1. Dusart (IRE) – Total: 520.9, Odds: 14/1 Dusart has had wind and back surgery prior to this season, which could affect his performance. He also underperformed in his last two starts. However, the fact that he has headgear on for this race might help him focus better. His high total rating still makes him a contender, and the 14/1 odds offer potential value. If you believe Dusart can bounce back from his recent underwhelming performances, he could be a good pick.
2. Flash Collonges (FR) – Total: 477.4, Odds: 20/1 Flash Collonges has had wind surgery in the past and has recently shown improvement in his performance. His first chase win at Newbury (near 3m, good) indicates that he is capable of staying beyond that distance. With a 4lb rise, he is not entirely ruled out and could be an interesting choice for those looking for longer odds.
3. Threeunderthrufive (IRE) – Total: 475.1, Odds: 16/1 Threeunderthrufive’s performance this season has not lived up to his initial chasing promise. However, the return of cheekpieces for this race could help him regain focus. Given his total rating and 16/1 odds, he could be an interesting pick if you believe that the cheekpieces and a recovery effort will improve his performance.
4. Kittys Light – Total: 449.6, Odds: 7/2 Kittys Light was a never-nearer second in this race last year and has shown that he can perform well at this distance. The return of cheekpieces could help him perform better, and his stamina is not in question. With odds of 7/2, he is one of the favourites in the race, and his chances should not be underestimated.