In terms of total ratings, the horses are ranked as follows:
- Yibir (585.3)
- Haskoy (509.9)
- Israr (490.6)
- Gaassee (IRE) (453.7)
- Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) (442.9)
- Kemari (428.2)
- Old Harrovian (402.1)
Based on the ratings and the given comments, here’s an analysis and assessment of the top contenders:
- Yibir: With the highest total rating of 585.3, Yibir is the clear frontrunner according to the stats. Yibir is a high-class performer and finished 2022 with a victory at Newmarket, suggesting potential for another good campaign. Despite being off since last July, he brings clearly the best form to the race, although the commentary suggests some hesitation with trust.
- Haskoy: Coming second in terms of ratings, Haskoy scored 509.9. She’s shown notable form, having placed second in the St Leger after just three starts, which is impressive. Her relatively rapid progression is notable and she has potential for further improvement, despite her lack of experience.
- Israr: Israr ranks third with a total score of 490.6. Despite this being his first move out of handicaps and into a Group race, Israr is considered a contender. He has demonstrated potential in previous races, including a third-place finish in the King George V Handicap last summer, suggesting he might be set for a good year.
- Gaassee (IRE): Gaassee has a total rating of 453.7. Gelded since his last run, he showed promise with a four-win streak in the previous season and finished third in the Old Newton Cup. There is potential for Gaassee to offer more in 2023, although he will need to bounce back from his Ebor disappointment.
While the above four are the leading contenders based on ratings, it’s worth noting some comments on the other runners. Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) has some smart form from 2021, and while he ran only once last term and below form on reappearance, there is potential for him to build on his performances. Kemari is a form player who, despite not having won since the 2021 Royal Ascot, has run plenty of good races and should not be dismissed outright. Old Harrovian, the lowest-rated horse, has shown significant improvement in recent races, with the potential for further progress if he proves effective on turf.
In conclusion, based on total ratings, Yibir seems to be the strongest contender, followed by Haskoy and Israr. However, the race could be influenced by factors beyond just the total ratings, such as current form, conditions on the day, and how well each horse performs at this level of competition.
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