Based on the total ratings and provided comments, here’s an analysis of the race:
- Autumn Festival (Total Rating: 457.9): Autumn Festival tops the total rating, making it the front-runner in this analysis. The horse had a productive 2022 campaign, with seven wins mostly over 7f. Its recent performance in the Thirsk Hunt Cup was credible, and the drop back in trip seems to be ideal. Autumn Festival also has a successful record under William Buick, which could be a positive factor. All these attributes make Autumn Festival the top contender in the race.
- Nizaaka (Total Rating: 372.6): Nizaaka ranks second in total ratings. The mare is described as useful and respectable, with good performance records, particularly in handicaps on British soil. Despite a tough task in the Lingfield Group 3, she appears ready for this level of competition. However, her recent performance after a break has been below par, making her standing in this race a bit uncertain.
- Lyndon B (Total Rating: 372.1): This horse ranks closely behind Nizaaka. Lyndon B won a 7f handicap at Glorious Goodwood previously and had a commendable performance at Newbury in his final outing last year. If he returns to action in similar form, he is likely to be a strong competitor.
- Able Kane (Total Rating: 343.0): Able Kane is fourth in the rating totals, but he seems to be hitting his peak form as his latest effort was better than his reappearance. His last start under Oisin Murphy resulted in a win back in 2021. He’s on a favourable mark currently, which could be a positive sign. However, he ended 2022 below par and hasn’t hit top form in two runs this term, casting some doubt on his performance in this race.
Looking at the comments for horses that didn’t make the top four in total ratings, the following horses might have potential:
- Ropey Guest (Total Rating: 326.5): Despite his low strike-rate, he often runs in better races and has clear possibilities off the current mark back down in class. With a Victoria Cup reappearance under his belt and lots of useful form, he might perform well.
- Global Esteem (Total Rating: 341.0): This horse remains well handicapped having gained his last three wins off this mark. Despite being a disappointing favourite in a lower grade at Newmarket last week, he could stand a good chance provided he’s back on song.
In conclusion, Autumn Festival, Nizaaka, Lyndon B, and Able Kane seem to be the top contenders in this race based on total ratings and their past performance. However, Ropey Guest and Global Esteem could also be ones to watch, despite their lower total ratings.
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