Analysis of the 10 races on ITV4 today.

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1.15 Haydock (7 runners)
Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Florida Handicap
1m4f

Based on the total ratings provided, here are the horses in descending order:

  1. Cmon Kenny – 290.6
  2. Auld Toon Loon – 288.3
  3. Tiger Beetle – 279.7
  4. Thunder Ahead – 278.5
  5. Peripeteia – 263.8
  6. In The Breeze – 261.5
  7. Swift Tuttle – 215.2

Now, let’s analyse and assess these horses.

  1. Cmon Kenny (290.6): Despite being a lightly raced 7-year-old, Cmon Kenny attracted market support in his last race at Newbury, although he was well beaten. However, the ground conditions might not have been ideal for him. The horse is well-treated based on his best form, and with William Buick booked for this race, it indicates that the horse’s backers could maintain their faith. Cmon Kenny stands out as an intriguing prospect.
  2. Auld Toon Loon (288.3): Auld Toon Loon showed promise in his recent handicap debut at Wetherby where he came second in a field of 14. He demonstrated a strong finish and was just denied victory. Given this performance, there’s every chance he’ll stay this longer distance. His relatively high rating and unexposed profile suggest he has strong claims.
  3. Tiger Beetle (279.7): Despite a disappointing performance at Newbury, Tiger Beetle had shown good form in his previous races, finishing third at both Wolverhampton and Doncaster. He’s expected to handle this 1m4f distance and fast ground, making him a strong contender.
  4. Thunder Ahead (278.5): This horse has shown mixed form recently. Although he has not been at his best on the Flat or over hurdles this year, his performance at Chelmsford was respectable. A drop back in distance could be beneficial, and he’s on a competitive mark, making him another horse that can’t be ruled out.

In addition to these, it is worth mentioning Peripeteia, who despite being fifth in the ratings, might perform well on better ground, given her sole grass win came on good to firm conditions.

It’s worth noting that this is a competitive race, and while the ratings provide a good indication, factors such as form, ground conditions, and jockey bookings should also be considered when predicting the outcome.

1.30 Goodwood (6 runners)
William Hill Festival Stakes (Listed)
1m2f

In assessing the race based on the total ratings, the horse with the highest total is Francesco Clemente (IRE) at 505.1. Following him is King Of Conquest at 488.8, El Drama (IRE) at 419.6, Phantom Flight at 396.9, Imperial Fighter (IRE) at 382.9, and Jack Darcy (IRE) at 378.9.

  1. Francesco Clemente (IRE): Coming in as the top-rated contender, Francesco Clemente (IRE) has an impressive record, being unbeaten last year in three races. Although he’s returning after ten months off, he is anticipated to retain his potential, particularly if the ground conditions are good. He also has nothing to prove if the ground continues to quicken up, making him a strong favourite based on ratings and comments.
  2. King Of Conquest: The second-rated contender, King Of Conquest, has been lightly raced but has demonstrated good form in recent handicaps. His performance at Newmarket three weeks ago, where he battled to success, highlights his potential. Although he is taking a step up in class here, he is considered to be well worth it. The only consideration would be his performance on quicker ground, which he has not encountered before.
  3. El Drama (IRE): El Drama (IRE) ranks third in the ratings, but his record is somewhat mixed. He has had success in domestic Listed company and has placed second twice at the Group level. However, he also had a disappointing performance in the Dubai Turf. His performance could potentially be impacted by fast conditions, as he has never raced on ground firmer than good.
  4. Phantom Flight: Fourth-rated Phantom Flight has been quite successful last year, winning three out of six races, including a notable win at York’s Ebor meeting. Despite a third-place finish in his return last month at Kempton, he still holds potential, especially if he can find a clear run this time.
  5. Imperial Fighter (IRE): Despite ranking fifth, Imperial Fighter (IRE) has many questions to answer. His best performance so far was last season, where he placed third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. However, his recent performances have not matched that level, and he will need a significant resurgence to be competitive in this race.
  6. Jack Darcy (IRE): Lastly, Jack Darcy (IRE) has demonstrated some good form in the past, but he also has points to prove. He finished last season with a modest seventh place at Kempton. He will need to start strong in this season to make an impact in this race.

In conclusion, based on the ratings and additional comments, the race seems poised to be between Francesco Clemente (IRE) and King Of Conquest. However, horse racing often involves unexpected twists, and all the contenders have demonstrated potential in different ways, which should make for an exciting race.

1.50 Haydock (7 runners)
Betfred TV Hell Nook Handicap
2m½f 

The race to be analysed is the 1.50 at Haydock, the Betfred TV Hell Nook Handicap. This is a Class 2 race, taking place on good to firm ground, with 7 runners participating.

Let’s start by considering the total ratings:

  1. Carzola (IRE) – 466.5
  2. Solent Gateway (IRE) – 381.0
  3. Mountain Road (FR) – 368.5
  4. Law Of The Sea – 361.1
  5. Reshoun (FR) – 313.2
  6. Themaxwecan (IRE) – 307.4
  7. Firstman (FR) – 234.1

Based on the total ratings alone, Carzola is a clear standout, holding a significant lead over the second-ranked horse, Solent Gateway. Carzola’s recent form, with three consecutive victories, speaks volumes about its current performance levels. However, note that Carzola is up 10lb from the last race, which might present a challenge.

Solent Gateway, the second in the ratings, has displayed good runs on the All-Weather this year at up to 2 miles. Its effectiveness on good ground also stands it in good stead for this race. Mountain Road, another horse that has done well on the All-Weather and has shown promise in early turf career, is third in the ratings and could offer some competition.

However, if we consider the horses’ recent form and potential for improvement, Law Of The Sea has a strong claim for consideration. Although fourth in the total ratings, it showed great promise in the Chester Cup and is ridden by the highly experienced jockey, William Buick. Given the horse’s ability to win on fast ground previously, it could present a serious challenge.

Reshoun, Themaxwecan, and Firstman rank lower in the total ratings, but each has their merits. Reshoun has proven to be a smart staying handicapper but struggled recently. Themaxwecan’s recent performance was less inspiring, but it has won on good to firm ground previously. Firstman, despite its low rating, had a successful winter season at Dundalk but needs to bounce back after a disappointing performance at Newmarket.

In conclusion, based on the total ratings and recent performance considerations, the top three horses to consider for this race could be Carzola, Solent Gateway, and Law Of The Sea. However, as always in racing, surprises can and do happen, and the lower-rated horses might also provide some interesting competition.

2.05 Goodwood (13 runners)
William Hill Harroways Handicap
7f 

Based on the total ratings provided, here’s an analysis and ranking of the horses:

  1. Yacowlef (IRE) – 454.9
    Yacowlef has the highest total rating of 454.9, which makes it the top contender for this race. He has shown excellent form in the Newmarket races this season. Despite a 6lb rise to deal with, his consistent performance suggests he’s a horse very much going the right way.
  2. Fully Wet – 431.9
    With a total rating of 431.9, Fully Wet is the second highest-rated horse in this race. She has demonstrated promise, winning two races last season at Group 3 and Listed levels. She may have underperformed in the 1,000 Guineas trials, but this race should provide more insight into her future prospects. As the only filly in this field, she brings some interesting variation to the race.
  3. Prairie Falcon – 410.5
    Prairie Falcon is rated third highest at 410.5. He had a successful campaign at two, winning a nursery race at this course. Despite a quieter start to the current season, his past performance can’t be ignored.
  4. Bresson – 405.9
    At a total rating of 405.9, Bresson is the fourth highest-rated horse. He showed significant potential when he won at Yarmouth and improved again to finish second at Salisbury. He seems to be open to improvement at three.
  5. Tafreej (IRE) – 393.7
    Tafreej, with a total rating of 393.7, ranks fifth. His performance at Newbury, where he travelled strongly for a long way, suggests that he could prove himself to be nicely handicapped under drier conditions.

While these are the top five horses based on total ratings, it’s worth mentioning a few other horses who have received positive comments, even if their ratings are lower.

Dark Thirty (IRE) – 375.0
Dark Thirty has been praised for his progressive form this season. He made all in a 7f handicap at York’s recent Dante meeting. Despite being only 3lb higher here, he’s expected to perform competitively.

Urban Sprawl – 364.3
Urban Sprawl has been a consistent performer, with three 7f nursery wins last season and good placed efforts this year. His capability to perform well on drier ground could prove advantageous.

Seeking Gold (IRE) – 385.0
Seeking Gold was within a length of Guineas winner Chaldean on his debut and then comfortably improved. He is expected to have a future in handicaps off this sort of mark.

In conclusion, Yacowlef stands as the top contender based on the total ratings. However, it’s important to consider horses like Dark Thirty, Urban Sprawl, and Seeking Gold who have shown strong form, despite their lower ratings. Horse racing is unpredictable, and various factors, including track conditions and the jockey’s strategy, can affect the final outcome.

2.25 Haydock (11 runners)
Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
1m

Here is an analysis of the horse race at Haydock. The horses are ranked according to the total ratings, and the analysis includes additional considerations based on positive comments of horses not in the top of the ratings.

  1. James Mchenry (Total Rating: 535.2)
    James Mchenry leads in the ratings and has shown impressive form. He has built upon his 2-year-old promise to win 1m handicaps on both starts this season, with the most recent victory over the course and distance. Despite a 7lb rise in weights and running in a better race, he’s progressive and might handle the ground well.
  2. Covey (Total Rating: 445.6)
    Covey stands second in the ratings and has been successful in the last two races at Southwell and Newcastle. He is making a handicap debut, which can sometimes be challenging, but has shown consistent promise. The absence of the usual hood is a variable to consider.
  3. Gincident (IRE) (Total Rating: 394.9)
    Gincident is third in the ratings and has four wins from his last six starts, including a victory at Musselburgh last month. Despite being 7lb higher and running on a different ground type, he’s shown a progressive profile and might still have more to give.
  4. Defence Of Fort (IRE) (Total Rating: 387.2)
    Defence Of Fort came up short in his last two races last season, but his debut victory at Ascot was impressive. If he can tap back into that form, he is a player in this race. His first run since being gelded might bring a change in performance.
  5. Scholarship (IRE) (Total Rating: 387.1)
    Scholarship has had a mixed bag of performances, with a recent disappointment at Ascot. However, his handicap win at Newbury shows that he can bounce back. Cheekpieces are added in this race, which might influence his performance.

Additional considerations

Despite not being in the top of the ratings, Killybegs Warrior (IRE) and Royal Cape (IRE) have positive comments about their form. Killybegs Warrior has shown improvement this spring and could be on a good mark now back down in trip in a handicap. Meanwhile, Royal Cape showed significant improvement winning at Windsor and tackles very different ground in this first handicap; his pedigree provides optimism he’ll handle it, and it remains to be seen where his limitations lie.

This analysis excludes odds as they are notional and focuses on the overall ratings and performances of the horses. Please note that these assessments are a guide and, in racing, the outcome can be influenced by numerous factors.

2.40 York (14 runners)
William Hill Epic Boost Handicap
5f 

  1. Korker (IRE): With a total rating of 441.4, Korker is the leading contender according to the ratings. Korker seems to have the potential to perform well, having several of the competitors behind him in a previous race 9 days ago. However, his propensity for starting slowly could compromise his chances. Nevertheless, he still seems to have not reached his peak performance and commands major respect.
  2. Fine Wine (FR): Following closely in second position with a rating of 421.8, Fine Wine is a highly respected competitor, especially considering his impressive track record in 5f races. Although he will need to perform better than ever to compete with his current mark, his strong performance in the previous season and affinity for the racecourse suggest he should not be overlooked.
  3. Alligator Alley: Coming in third with a total rating of 407.1, Alligator Alley has had a mixed performance in recent times. Although he achieved an AW hat-trick in Southwell earlier, his form on turf has been less impressive. His sixth place finish in a previous race against several of today’s opponents does not speak to his favour, but his performance may improve if he makes it into the frame.
  4. Chipstead: With a total of 363.5, Chipstead has had a good run in the past season and also had a notable win in Catterick. However, his most recent performance was disappointing and he will need to bounce back significantly in this race. This seems possible as he’s returning to handicap company.
  5. Bedford Flyer (IRE): With a rating of 359.0, Bedford Flyer showed promise when finishing third on this course and distance nine days ago. It was his first run since joining Mick Appleby’s stable and his speed and prior form, including a victory at the Dante meeting in 2021, make him a notable contender.

Beyond the ratings, a few others are worth mentioning:

Mondammej: Although slightly lower in total rating at 344.0, Mondammej’s comment suggests a potential upside. Despite some quirks, his recent fourth place over the course and distance and the fact that he is better off today against Korker and Bedford Flyer, puts him in contention.

Zarzyni (IRE): Zarzyni’s total rating of 335.5 isn’t as high as the leaders, but his positive comments suggest potential. Despite being underwhelming since last summer, his mark has dropped and he made a satisfactory return recently. If he’s back on song, he can play a leading role.

Overall, based on the ratings and the analysis, Korker, Fine Wine, and Alligator Alley seem to be the strongest contenders, with Chipstead and Bedford Flyer also in consideration. The horse race is likely to be highly competitive, and factors such as recent form, track affinity, and any changes in performance conditions could influence the final outcome.

3.00 Haydock (8 runners)
Betfred Nifty Fifty Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2)
6f

Based on the provided ratings, the race contenders are ranked as follows:

  1. Cold Case (Total: 525.5)
  2. Little Big Bear (IRE) (Total: 488.9)
  3. Shouldvebeenaring (Total: 474.7)
  4. Bradsell (Total: 472.2)
  5. Al Dasim (IRE) (Total: 469.5)
  6. Matilda Picotte (IRE) (Total: 434.5)
  7. Mill Stream (IRE) (Total: 371.6)
  8. The Ridler (Total: 366.3)

Cold Case tops the ratings with a total of 525.5, indicating the strongest performance statistics. Little Big Bear follows closely, scoring a total of 488.9, with Shouldvebeenaring coming in third at 474.7.

Let’s analyse the top three contenders:

  1. Cold Case: This horse’s total rating reflects consistent and steady progress, with a perfect start to his 3yo campaign marked by a dogged win in Group 3 at Ascot. Cold Case ended 2022 victoriously in the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy, highlighting his solid credentials and reliability.
  2. Little Big Bear (IRE): Despite ranking second in total ratings, this horse’s record shows immense promise, having demonstrated stellar form as a 2yo with a seven-length success in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. However, concerns arise from his latest run in the 2,000 Guineas where he finished lame, so his current form may be a question mark.
  3. Shouldvebeenaring: A tough competitor, Shouldvebeenaring has five wins to his name, reflecting a pattern of durability. His total ratings rank him third, but this race appears to be a more challenging assignment, and he will need a personal best to succeed.

Beyond the top three by total ratings, two other contenders have noteworthy performances as per their comments.

  • Al Dasim (IRE): While this horse doesn’t top the ratings, he made significant progress last winter, winning five on the bounce at Wolverhampton and Meydan. His best effort was seen when he won Group 3 on the latter course. Al Dasim may not have reached his limit yet, and could present a surprise.
  • Matilda Picotte (IRE): Matilda Picotte has been consistent in her career so far. She showed well in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and is likely to take the drop back to 6f in her stride. With a knack for front running, she could be a dark horse in this race.

In conclusion, while the total ratings favour Cold Case, Little Big Bear, and Shouldvebeenaring, it’s worth noting the potential of Al Dasim and Matilda Picotte based on their comments, indicating they could be strong contenders.

3.15 York (9 runners)
William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies Stakes (Group 3)
1m6f

Here is the analysis and ranking of the horses based on the total ratings, excluding odds considerations, and considering positive comments of horses not in the ratings:

  1. Sea Flawless (IRE) – Total rating: 420.3. A late bloomer, she has shown significant promise in novice events this year. She has proven herself over 1m2f, but her ability over this longer distance is untested. Given her consistent performance and clear potential, she is a solid contender in this race.
  2. Mimikyu – Total rating: 415.7. Although Mimikyu’s form dipped in her last two attempts over 1m4f, she has otherwise shown progressive performance. Her record at about 1m6f is commendable, having won the 2022 Park Hill at Doncaster. Given her prior success over this distance, she has strong potential despite her Group 2 penalty.
  3. River Of Stars (IRE) – Total rating: 409.1. A Sea The Stars filly with a solid and progressive record. Although she finished behind Mimikyu in the Park Hill when last seen, she has otherwise demonstrated her capabilities with a Listed win at Chester. If she performs up to her full potential, she remains of major interest.
  4. One Evening – Total rating: 383.7. With only three races under her belt, One Evening is relatively unexposed. However, she has shown promise, especially given her bloodline. She shaped as if the 1m6f distance will suit her in her recent race at Lingfield, so further improvement is expected.
  5. Voodoo Queen – Total rating: 381.5. She delivered a creditable performance in the 2022 Galtres Stakes here and at Goodwood on her reappearance, indicating that she might be ready for the longer distance. While she’ll need to step up her game to compete with the top contenders, improvement is possible.

Beyond the top five based on total ratings, Typewriter (IRE) is worth noting. Despite her lower rating of 342.6, she recently posted a career-best RPR and shaped as if the 1m6f distance could suit her.

In conclusion, Sea Flawless (IRE) and Mimikyu emerge as the top contenders based on the total ratings. However, River Of Stars (IRE) and One Evening also hold strong potential for an upset. A keen eye should also be kept on Typewriter (IRE) despite her lower rating, given her recent strong performance and potential suitability to the 1m6f distance.

3.30 Haydock (14 runners)
Betfred Temple Stakes (Group 2)
5f 

Based on the information provided and the recent form, these are the horses that seem to be well-positioned for the race:

  1. Dramatised (IRE): After impressive performances in its first two 2yo starts, including winning the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, this horse remains very lightly raced and could have more to offer now back at a bare 5f.
  2. Royal Aclaim (IRE): Despite unplaced performances in the Group 1 Nunthorpe and a French Group 3, Royal Aclaim was extremely impressive in a Listed race at York. This lightly raced 4yo could tap back into that abundant promise following a break.
  3. The Platinum Queen (IRE): This horse enjoyed an excellent 2yo campaign, finishing second in the Nunthorpe and winning the Abbaye. Although sold out of Richard Fahey’s yard for 1,200,000gns in November, this front-runner should be respected.
  4. Twilight Calls: With strong performance in the previous year and being second in both this race (good) and the Group 1 King’s Stand, Twilight Calls can be considered a key player.
  5. Live In The Dream (IRE): After two wins in progressive 2022 (including on fast ground) and continuous improvement this spring, this front-runner could be bang there once more.
  6. Mitbaahy (IRE): Despite a couple of blips in Group races last season, Mitbaahy enjoyed a progressive campaign, winning a Group 3 at Newbury. This 4yo could still have more to offer for his top trainer.

Remember, these are potential contenders based on the current form and recent performances. Horse racing is unpredictable and the actual outcome might differ.

3.40 Curragh (11 runners)
Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)
1m

Here is the analysis of the race at Curragh, based on the ratings provided and excluding odds from the consideration:

  1. Paddington (Total Rating: 600.4): This horse is currently the highest rated, boasting a total of 600.4. He has won three of his four starts and has been successful in his two races this season. However, it’s crucial to note that all of his best form is on soft ground. The key question here is whether Paddington will be able to deliver on the good ground at Curragh.
  2. Cairo (IRE) (Total Rating: 574.1): Cairo is the second highest rated horse with a rating of 574.1. Cairo showed improvement last season, beating Bold Discovery in a Leopardstown Group 3 and comfortably landing a Dundalk Listed in March. However, Cairo’s performance in the UAE Derby was underwhelming. It’s key to observe how he performs in this first start since then.
  3. Galeron (IRE) (Total Rating: 485.9): With a rating of 485.9, Galeron comes in third. He secured the Goffs Million here in September and gave a career best in the 2,000 Guineas despite being hampered at the start. The horse clearly likes the track and could play a significant role in this race.
  4. Proud And Regal (IRE) (Total Rating: 467.6): Rated at 467.6, Proud And Regal had a good last season, winning the Tyros Stakes and the Criterium International, finishing second in the National Stakes too. His run in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown was decent, and it will be interesting to see how he performs back at 1m on quicker ground.
  5. Hi Royal (IRE) (Total Rating: 457.2): Hi Royal is rated at 457.2. His performance significantly improved in his last outing when he was second in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. He had a good chance of winning, but unfortunately, he hung badly to his left. Back on good ground here, he could set a high standard for the competition.

While these are the top-rated contenders based on total ratings, Royal Scotsman (IRE) (Total Rating: 451.2), although not in the top 5, has a notable positive comment. He maintained a high level of form last year, won the Richmond Stakes, and narrowly missed out in the Dewhurst. Despite his keenness in the 2,000 Guineas on his reappearance, he didn’t really get going until the last, where he finished third between Hi Royal and Galeron. With that experience under his belt, he could have a decent chance of winning here.

Overall, the race promises to be competitive, with Paddington and Cairo leading the ratings and Royal Scotsman as a potential dark horse based on positive comments despite not being in the top five of total ratings.

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