Analysis for the best of Monday’s National Hunt meetings (In no particular order) Based on the Timewise rankings.

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2.55 Cartmel (11 runners)
Tony Connell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
3m1½f

Based on the provided ratings and comments, the race analysis is as follows:

  1. I Spy A Diva (Total Rating: 448.6) – The top-rated horse, I Spy A Diva, seems a solid contender. She’s been described as a progressive mare, and her recent performances have been commendable. Despite her rise in handicap, she has continued to find ways to excel. As the highest-rated horse and based on her recent form and adaptability to the trip, she’s positioned to have a significant chance in this race.
  2. Hillview (IRE) (Total Rating: 431.6) – Hillview has made excellent progress recently with three wins and a career-best performance at Uttoxeter. Despite a rise in handicap, Hillview’s recent form and the yard’s success in this race could be a significant factor. However, there’s an acknowledgement that the latest 4lb rise might demand more from the horse.
  3. Scrum Diddly (IRE) (Total Rating: 426.4) – This horse has shown substantial improvement recently, winning by 15 lengths on his handicap debut and followed up with a 13-length victory. Despite the increased weight, the horse’s recent form is commanding respect and, hence, should not be underestimated.
  4. My Bobby Dazzler (Total Rating: 380.7) – While this horse has a lower total rating compared to the top three, the comments suggest solid performances with two good runs ending last season and the possibility of making each-way claims.
  5. Mr Yeats (IRE) (Total Rating: 367.8) – A successful early part of the last season is in Mr Yeats’ favour. However, after a six-month absence and a career-high mark, this horse will need to hit the ground running to stand a chance.

It’s worth mentioning Aramax (GER) (Total Rating: 329.6) who, despite being seventh on total ratings, has shown potential with a strong second-place finish in the last race. While this doesn’t guarantee success, it’s indicative of the horse’s capabilities.

In conclusion, while I Spy A Diva, Hillview, and Scrum Diddly are ranked high in the total ratings and seem to have good chances, horses like My Bobby Dazzler and Mr Yeats should also not be discounted. Also, Aramax’s recent performances make him a noteworthy contender despite a lower total rating.

4.05 Cartmel (6 runners)
Andy Austin Happy 64th Birthday Handicap Chase
2m1½f 

Race Analysis and Rankings

Based on the total ratings, the rankings of the horses are as follows:

  1. Return Ticket (IRE) – 376.5
  2. Lermoos Legend – 372.8
  3. Whodini (IRE) – 367.0
  4. And The New (IRE) – 365.0
  5. Arthurs Quay (IRE) – 323.3
  6. Sao (FR) – 310.8

Assessment of the Top Contenders

  1. Return Ticket (IRE): The top-ranked horse in the total ratings, Return Ticket has recently been in prime form with a strong win at Carlisle, followed by a respectable fourth-place finish at Ayr. Despite needing to prove he can handle the track after being pulled up in this race last year, his recent performances give him strong claims in this race. The recent form is a key factor in horse racing, and Return Ticket has shown good form recently.
  2. Lermoos Legend: Despite returning from a layoff with a low-key run at Ffos Las, Lermoos Legend is a five-time chase winner, with the last two victories on this very track. His record at this track makes him a strong contender, even though he comes second in the ratings. The track form is a positive signal, and Lermoos Legend has a proven track record here.
  3. Whodini (IRE): Lightly raced and seemingly on an upward trajectory, Whodini is 2-3 over fences, winning the latest outing at Ayr. The faster ground will suit him well, and he is likely to give a good account of himself.
  4. And The New (IRE): And The New has been revitalised recently, winning at Market Rasen a week ago in first-time cheekpieces. He’s facing stronger opposition here and carries a 7lb penalty, but remains very well handicapped based on form as recent as last summer.

Additional Considerations:

  • Arthurs Quay (IRE): While he ranks lower in the ratings, he had a series of three wins over the winter. However, he needs to bounce back from a poor showing at Worcester and would appeal more if the ground were slower.
  • Sao (FR): Sao, the lowest-ranked horse in the ratings, has been a tricky horse to win with due to his tendency to race too freely. Despite this, he managed to finish second at Wetherby last month, suggesting some potential.

Special Mention:

Given the total ratings and their recent form, Return Ticket (IRE) and Lermoos Legend merit a special mention. Return Ticket (IRE) has demonstrated strong form recently, making him a prime contender. Lermoos Legend has a proven track record at this course and returns to it on a very tempting mark, which could give him a crucial advantage.

3.15 Huntingdon (5 runners)
Garden Party Novices Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m4f 

Race Analysis and Rankings

Looking at the total ratings, the rankings for the horses in this race are as follows:

  1. Hardy Boy (FR) – 344.1
  2. Toughasoldboots (IRE) – 337.1
  3. Petrastar – 311.1
  4. Lough Carra (IRE) – 275.9
  5. Harry Hazard – 158.6

Assessment of the Top Contenders

  1. Hardy Boy (FR): As the highest-rated horse, Hardy Boy’s recent performance has been decent despite a less-than-stellar performance at Ffos Las. He is a dual hurdle winner, showing strength, but his recent laboured display raises some doubts. However, considering his strong rating and past wins, Hardy Boy is still a contender in this race.
  2. Toughasoldboots (IRE): Close behind Hardy Boy in the ratings, Toughasoldboots has had a strong showing in both hurdles and chase races. She had a disappointing run at Newcastle, but her quick return suggests there may be no significant issues. This horse has potential over fences, suggesting she should be considered despite her recent performance.
  3. Petrastar: Petrastar started his career strong, winning his first three starts over hurdles, but has mostly struggled since then. He has a fair bit to prove in his chasing debut after five months off, but his past victories and competitive total rating make him a contender worth considering.

Additional Considerations:

  • Lough Carra (IRE): Although lower in the ratings, Lough Carra could potentially improve with a now fitted tongue-strap. He was a runner-up four times over hurdles last autumn and was well-backed in his C&D chasing debut, suggesting potential that is yet to be fully realised.
  • Harry Hazard: The lowest-ranked horse, Harry Hazard, has modest chasing form last year and seems to be out of the handicap. Given his recent performance and low total rating, he doesn’t look like a strong contender in this race.

Special Mention:

Considering the total ratings and their recent performances, Hardy Boy (FR) and Toughasoldboots (IRE) merit a special mention. Hardy Boy, despite his recent struggles, is the highest-rated horse and has demonstrated a decent performance, especially over hurdles. Toughasoldboots, on the other hand, has shown potential over fences and could turn in a strong performance if she can bounce back from her recent disappointment.

6.30 Ballinrobe (16 runners)
McHale Mayo National Handicap Chase (Listed)
2m7f

Based on the total ratings provided, the ranking order of the horses in the 6.30 Ballinrobe race is as follows:

  1. Life In The Park (IRE) – 435.6
  2. Peregrine Run (IRE) – 409.0
  3. Ilikedwayurthinkin (IRE) – 399.2
  4. Sole Pretender (IRE) – 391.6
  5. Say It Aint So – 385.8
  6. Tullybeg (IRE) – 384.2

Starting with the highest-rated horse, Life In The Park (IRE) comes in at the top with a rating of 435.6. The horse has two wins from the last season and ran a creditable third place in its last race at Punchestown, 31 days ago. The trainer is in good form, which could contribute positively to the performance.

Next is Peregrine Run (IRE) with a rating of 409. This horse is a course and distance winner, showing it can handle the track and the distance. It had two wins from six runs last season and won a handicap chase at Chepstow recently. It has been off for seven months, but if it’s in form, it can pose a strong challenge.

Third on the list is Ilikedwayurthinkin (IRE) with a rating of 399.2. This horse is also a course and distance winner, but it’s been eleven runs since its last win in 2021. Despite this, it ran a creditable fourth place in its last race at Punchestown 33 days ago.

In fourth place, we have Sole Pretender (IRE) rated 391.6. A course winner who finished third in its last hurdle race at Cork 50 days ago, Sole Pretender is switching from hurdles to chase and significantly up in trip, which might prove challenging. However, the horse is making its handicap chase debut, which could introduce a new dynamic.

Say It Ain’t So comes next with a rating of 385.8. It recently won a handicap chase at this course 27 days ago, just holding on. However, it’s significantly up in trip this time, which could prove challenging.

Lastly, Tullybeg (IRE) comes in with a total rating of 384.2. With seven wins from 21 National Hunt (NH) runs, Tullybeg managed a fifth place in its last race at Punchestown 31 days ago. The yard is in good form, which might be a positive sign.

Special mention goes to the top-rated horse, Life In The Park (IRE), who appears to have an exceptional chance based on the total ratings and recent form. Peregrine Run (IRE) also deserves a mention as a course and distance winner with good past performance, despite the lay-off.

It’s crucial to note that horse racing is unpredictable, and various factors such as form, fitness, ground conditions and the skill of the jockey can influence the outcome. Please treat this analysis as a guide rather than a certain prediction.

4.40 Cartmel (9 runners)
Molson Coors Handicap Chase
2m5½f 

In this race at Cartmel, the analysis based on the total ratings ranks the horses as follows:

  1. Fire Away (IRE)
  2. De Barley Basket (IRE)
  3. Gaelik Coast (FR)
  4. Marshalled (IRE)
  5. Getaway Luv (IRE)
  6. Slanelough (IRE)
  7. Tontos Spirit
  8. Ubetya (IRE)
  9. The Paddy Pie (IRE)

Let’s examine the top four contenders in more detail.

  1. Fire Away (IRE) holds the highest total rating. Despite being out of form lately, a return to this track and the refitting of a visor could lead to a resurgence. This horse also holds an impressive record of winning this race last year and has a much-reduced mark, indicating a potential for a strong performance.
  2. De Barley Basket (IRE) holds the second highest total rating. The horse has shown consistent performances and has a fine strike rate over fences. Last seen six months ago with a good second place at Wincanton, this horse has the potential to take the beating if tuned up for this return.
  3. Gaelik Coast (FR) is third in the total rating. Although it had a good season hurdling, its recent performances have been below par. However, its prior successes should not be discounted.
  4. Marshalled (IRE) is fourth in the total rating. This horse has shown a revival for a new yard lately, winning a handicap chase at Newcastle with something to spare. If its jumping holds up, this horse should have a good run.

Among the horses not in the top total ratings, Tontos Spirit merits a mention due to its impressive record at this track, despite its recent performances not making a significant impact.

It is important to note that these ratings and rankings are only one aspect of race analysis and the actual race outcome can be influenced by numerous other factors.

5.45 Cartmel (14 runners)
Well Handicap Hurdle
2m6½f

Based on the total ratings, the horses are ranked as follows:

  1. Benito (FR)
  2. Iolani (GER)
  3. Hungry Tiger (IRE)
  4. Karavomylos (IRE)
  5. Cash Again (FR)
  6. Wearelongterm (IRE)
  7. Strike Of Lightning (IRE)
  8. Coup De Gold (IRE)
  9. Red Ochre
  10. Colonel Manderson (FR)
  11. Bells Express (IRE)
  12. The White Volcano (IRE)
  13. Don Brocco
  14. Les Fremantle (FR)

Benito (FR) ranks first with a total rating of 326.3. He showed good performance when he won over this C&D and was second in an inadequate trip at Sedgefield. This indicates that he can perform well in varied conditions and his return to a preferable distance on a quicker surface is promising.

The second place in the ranking, Iolani (GER) with a total rating of 315, has shown potential. Although he has a long losing run, his close finish at Carlisle and performance on the Flat course last week are noteworthy. Despite being on a good mark, the analysis suggests he may fall short against a couple of competitors.

In third position based on the ratings is Hungry Tiger (IRE) with 295.9 total points. However, his form has been inconsistent. He showed good performance when he was only narrowly defeated by Benito over C&D off a 6 lb higher mark. But, he hasn’t been able to match that level of form in his recent appearances.

Karavomylos (IRE) is ranked fourth with 292.2 total points. He showed a notable improvement in his handicap debut at Ffos Las where he finished a clear second. This suggests he may show further progress, making him a strong contender.

Out of the top-rated horses, special mention should be given to Benito (FR) and Karavomylos (IRE) based on their performance in recent races. Benito has shown versatility and consistency, while Karavomylos has the potential to improve significantly, making them excellent contenders in this race.

Finally, a glance at the comments indicates that the sixth-rated Wearelongterm (IRE) might perform well in this race. His recent form in handicaps and the likelihood of improvement with the stiffer test makes him a noteworthy horse despite his lower ranking.

In conclusion, the top-rated horses based on the total ratings combined with their recent form and comments are Benito (FR), Karavomylos (IRE), and potentially Wearelongterm (IRE) as an outsider.

2.05 Huntingdon (7 runners)
Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Chase
2m½f

Based on the total ratings given, here is an analysis and assessment of the upcoming 2.05 Huntingdon horse race:

  1. Chess Player (IRE) – Total Rating: 317.8
    Chess Player has the highest total rating of 317.8. This indicates that it is a strong contender in this race. After an improved performance when scoring on its chase debut at Worcester last July, it has somewhat underperformed. However, the comment indicates that it had a slightly better than expected performance last time and could be poised for a noteworthy performance after an 8-month break. It has a solid jockey and trainer score which bolsters its position. Its past few ratings suggest consistency in performance, which further strengthens its position.
  2. Alghazaal – Total Rating: 296.2
    Alghazaal ranks second in total ratings with a score of 296.2. The horse put up a career-best performance when winning a 9-runner handicap chase at Ludlow 20 days ago. Its ratings suggest a lighter racing schedule over fences but have the potential for further improvement. Alghazaal also seems to have the edge in terms of speed ratings, which could be a decisive factor.
  3. Obey The Rules (IRE) – Total Rating: 289.5
    With a total rating of 289.5, Obey The Rules comes in third. The horse has been quite successful over fences, with its fourth win (with cheekpieces refitted) in Leicester last December. Although it didn’t perform as expected in Wincanton last time, it has been generally consistent and is likely to bounce back. Its performance ratings suggest potential, with a considerable score in speed, jockey, and trainer.

Based on these ratings and comments, Chess Player and Alghazaal seem to have an exceptional chance of performing well in this race. Chess Player’s high total score and previous improved form suggest it could be a strong contender. Alghazaal’s recent career-best performance and the comment indicating it is “capable of better still” also mark it as one to watch closely.

Among those not in the top three ratings, Honneur De Sivola (FR) is notable. Despite having a lower total rating of 195.6, the comment points out its potential as a “likely improver now switched to handicap chasing.” This could make it a dark horse in the race, despite its relatively low score.

Remember, while these ratings and comments provide a good starting point for analysing the race, horse racing is inherently unpredictable and subject to factors that can’t always be quantified.

3.50 Huntingdon (10 runners)
Join Racing TV Now Handicap Hurdle
2m

Here’s the ranking and analysis of the horses in the 3.50 Huntingdon race, using their total ratings as the main basis, and the comments for additional insights:

  1. Kingfast (IRE) – With a total rating of 386.2, Kingfast leads the field. He has recently been in excellent form, securing two victories this month for his new yard. Despite being 9 lbs higher now, he is expected to put forth a strong performance, with the prospect of securing a hat-trick making him a particularly noteworthy contender.
  2. Bluebella – Coming second in the ratings is Bluebella with a total of 366.8. She significantly improved her performance when fitted with a tongue tie, emerging victorious in a recent race at Worcester. She’s seen as a major player if she manages to handle the quick turnaround, which would be her main challenge.
  3. Embolden (IRE) – Third on the ratings list is Embolden, with a total of 311.7. He had a victorious run in a 2m handicap at Plumpton over Easter and demonstrated a good form at Stratford. His recent run at Uttoxeter, where the soft conditions over 3m tested his stamina, is seen as an outlier and this race is expected to be more suitable for him.
  4. Alkhattaaf – Alkhattaaf is fourth in the rankings, with a total rating of 298.0. His best hurdles performance was recently seen at Wincanton, and he has since shown his capability with a Flat success. His opening mark in this sphere is considered manageable, and he could be a strong contender in this race.
  5. Vision Of Hope – Vision Of Hope rounds off the top five, having a total rating of 293.3. She had two victories in her five Flat starts. Despite being a bit headstrong over hurdles, her recent performance at this course and distance indicates that she can make an impact from her lowly mark if she manages to piece things together.

One horse that didn’t make the top five based on total ratings but deserves mention due to positive comments is Fort De L’ocean (FR). Despite his 6th place rating of 278.9, he showed that he retains his ability after a long absence by finishing second in a 2m Southwell handicap hurdle. He might be one to keep an eye on.

As usual, these assessments should serve as guidance for the race, and actual race conditions can have significant impacts.

4.55 Huntingdon (6 runners)
Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle
2m4½f

Here’s the ranking and analysis of the horses in the 4.55 Huntingdon race, using their total ratings as the main basis, and the comments for additional insights:

  1. Highland Frolic (FR) – With a total rating of 390.7, Highland Frolic is the clear leader in this race. He has displayed fairly useful form on the Flat, recently opened his hurdles account with a victory at Plumpton, and has demonstrated potential in handicap company. Based on the comments, his recent good performance at Ludlow suggests that he’s worth trying at this trip, making him a strong contender for the win.
  2. Red Force One – Red Force One comes second in the ratings with a total of 308.7. He has three victories on the Flat in 2022, and he was narrowly defeated in a recent 19.6f handicap here, implying that he has solid form. The comments indicate that he would be hard to beat if he maintains the same level of performance, making him another horse to watch.
  3. Sinndarella (IRE) – Sinndarella, who ranks third with a total rating of 270.5, hasn’t seen much progression since her victory at Ludlow, but her recent creditable effort at Bangor suggests that she could be competitive in this race.
  4. Awesome Foursome – Fourth in the ratings is Awesome Foursome with a total of 253.3. He achieved his best hurdle performance when he finished second at Market Rasen. However, he faltered in his next race, which makes him a bit inconsistent. Based on the comments, there are other horses in the race that seem more reliable.
  5. Ben Bulben (IRE) – Ben Bulben ranks fifth with a total rating of 209.3. He has shown some promise in handicap races, including a decent performance at Warwick. However, according to the comments, he needs to improve his form in order to be competitive in this race.

A horse worth noting despite not being in the top five by ratings is Solid Fuel. His total rating is only 150.3, and he has had little impact over hurdles so far. The comments suggest that he is facing a tough challenge in this race.

As always, while these assessments provide a guide, the actual race conditions and the form of the horses on the day can significantly influence the results.

4.30 Ballinrobe (5 runners)
McHale Pro Glide Hurdle
2m2½f

Here’s the ranking and analysis of the horses in the 4.30 Ballinrobe race, based on the total ratings and the comments provided:

  1. Cash Back (FR) – Cash Back is the top-rated horse with a total rating of 519.2. Despite finishing 17th out of 18 in a recent handicap hurdle at Punchestown, he is still considered a smart chaser. The comments suggest that he is expected to bounce back from the recent defeat, hinting at strong prospects in this race.
  2. Fils Doudairies (FR) – Fils Doudairies comes second in the ratings with a total of 384.8. He’s a smart hurdler, with his latest win at Leopardstown. Unfortunately, he fell in a recent Grade 3 chase at Killarney, but was doing well until that point. If he’s recovered from the fall, he could pose a serious challenge in this race.
  3. Fighter Allen (FR) – Fighter Allen ranks third with a total rating of 342.9. He’s a winning hurdler and was once a useful chaser, but he’s currently out of sorts. Given the lack of recent positive performance commentary, his chances in this race seem uncertain.
  4. Enfranchise (IRE) – Fourth in the ratings is Enfranchise with a total of 285.8. He’s a useful flat winner and showed a decent performance in a recent listed mares event at Killarney. The comments suggest he’s open to progress in this sphere, making him one to watch, despite his lower ranking.
  5. Off You Go (IRE) – Off You Go rounds out the top five with a total rating of 257.5. Despite being fifth in ratings, he demonstrated potential with a strong second place in a minor event hurdle at Down Royal. Coming back after 9 months and reducing the trip, he could present a surprising challenge in this race.

While Cash Back and Fils Doudairies stand out with their higher total ratings and positive comments, do keep an eye on Off You Go, whose recent performance and return from a break could make him a potential dark horse in the race. As always, actual race conditions and the form of the horses on the day can significantly influence the results.

5.30 Ballinrobe (16 runners)
McHale Mayo Handicap Hurdle
2m6½f

Analysing the provided horse race ratings and their associated comments, here’s a brief overview, with focus primarily on total ratings, excluding odds as per request.

  1. Merlin Giant (FR) – Rated the highest with a total of 466.7. The horse showed promise with two wins from five runs last season and has potential for a significant performance, despite a less impressive recent outing. The move back up in trip might prove beneficial.
  2. Power Of Pause (IRE) – A close second with a total of 462.1. However, the recent form has been questionable with a pull-up in the last race due to a bad mistake. If recovered from that incident, this horse has potential to contend.
  3. Troubled Times (IRE) – Comes third in the ratings with 422.5. Has shown promise and recently had a career-best win. This will be its first handicap hurdle, and there could be more to come, making this horse one to watch.
  4. The Little Yank (IRE) – Rated fourth with 352.5. Although its recent form is a bit below par, it has a course win to its credit and could be a dark horse if it builds on the last performance.
  5. Lunar Power (IRE) – Total rating of 340.4 places it fifth. Despite the unimpressive recent form and long odds, the horse could surprise with first-time blinkers on.

It’s also worth mentioning the sixth-rated Prince Zaltar (FR) with a total of 333.9, who is coming off a career-best win with a tongue strap for the first time and could continue this upward trend.

In addition, from the horses not leading in the ratings, special mention goes to Fruit Blossom (IRE). Despite ranking seventh with a total of 330.0, the horse seems to be improving and recently had a career-best win with cheekpieces on. This win was just 9 days ago, showing good recent form, and could be a strong contender in this deeper race.

In conclusion, based on the ratings, Merlin Giant (FR), Power Of Pause (IRE) and Troubled Times (IRE) are the top contenders, with Troubled Times (IRE) and Prince Zaltar (FR) being particularly promising based on recent form and comments. Despite not being in the top five in terms of ratings, Fruit Blossom (IRE) should not be underestimated considering its recent win.

6.00 Ballinrobe (8 runners)
McHale Tiger Roll Beginners Chase
2m1f

Here is an analysis of the race based on the total ratings and further consideration of the horse’s form comments:

  1. Hercule Du Seuil (FR) – Total Rating: 487.5
    Hercule Du Seuil tops the total ratings and is seen as the top contender for this race. The French horse had a promising start over the larger obstacles, coming second in a novice chase at this course and distance on debut, which suggests he has adapted well to chasing. With more experience this time around, there’s a high chance for improvement, enhancing his prospects for a win.
  2. Ballyadam (IRE) – Total Rating: 450.4
    Ballyadam takes the second spot in the total ratings. His fifth-place finish in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown a month ago was creditable. He’s now switching from hurdles to chase, and the comments suggest that there’s more to come over fences. Given his previous performance, he is a strong contender.
  3. Winter Fog (IRE) – Total Rating: 441.5
    Winter Fog ranks third in the total ratings. Despite a mid-field finish in his last race at Punchestown, the horse was competitive, achieving a creditable eighth place in a field of 18. He is making his chase debut for a leading yard, indicating potential for a good performance.
  4. Prairie Dancer (IRE) – Total Rating: 420.5
    Prairie Dancer is in fourth place according to the ratings. Despite finishing tenth in a handicap hurdle at Cork 50 days ago, the comments suggest he went in snatches. As he makes his chase debut, there’s room for improvement if he settles well into the new discipline.

Now, considering notable comments for horses not at the top of the ratings:

  • Lieutenant Highway (IRE) – Total Rating: 333.7
    Despite not being amongst the top rated, Lieutenant Highway stands out due to his previous performances. A useful hurdler, he had four wins from six runs last season. He’s now making a chase debut for a top yard and is coming back down in trip, suggesting there’s potential for him to perform well.

In conclusion, while Hercule Du Seuil and Ballyadam top the ratings and are strong contenders, Winter Fog and Prairie Dancer cannot be overlooked. Lieutenant Highway could also surprise despite his lower total rating. Keep an eye on the performance of Hercule Du Seuil, who appears to have a significant chance based on both ratings and comments.

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