Analysis of some races at Newton Abbot on Wednesday using the Timewise Rankings.

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1.55 Newton Abbot (10 runners)
Newton Abbot Racecourse On Facebook
Mares National Hunt Novices Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f

Analyzing the provided data and the comments about the horses, here’s the report for the 1.55 race at Newton Abbot:

  1. Carrigeen Kampala (Total: 492.0) is the clear leader based on the ratings provided. The horse seems to have an impressive track record, having won in its first bumper at this course and decisively won on her return last month at Stratford. The note that she could improve further if she settles better implies that she may yet have potential beyond what we’ve already seen. Despite carrying a penalty, Carrigeen Kampala appears to have a good chance in this race, largely due to her scope for further progress in this sphere.
  2. Mairis Icon (Total: 291.6) ranks second in terms of the total ratings. Although the horse has been well beaten in two bumpers, the comments suggest some promise shown in her hurdling debut and a significant improvement during her most recent race over this course and distance. Her form puts her in a competitive position, and she is expected to progress further.
  3. Edeiffs Rock (Total: 281.6) comes in third based on the total rating. Having shown promise in her initial races and managing a creditable second at Warwick, this horse seems to be a strong contender if she can build upon her previous performance.
  4. Ryders Rock (Total: 234.7) ranks fourth according to the ratings. However, the comments suggest this horse has had middling performances in bumpers and an unfortunate hurdling debut. Given this, the horse appears to be less likely to compete with the top three rated horses in this race.
  5. Ambush Annie (Total: 234.4) is rated fifth. The comments suggest this horse has been well held in her previous hurdle runs, and her chances largely depend on whether the application of a tongue-tie makes any significant difference in her performance.

Interestingly, despite Scarlett Clipper having a low total rating (156.9), the comments suggest that this horse is a newcomer worth keeping an eye on due to her well-bred pedigree. Her half-siblings have shown impressive results in previous races, and it’s notable that the horse is from the same yard as Carrigeen Kampala.

In summary, Carrigeen Kampala is the clear favourite based on the ratings and the analysis of the comments. Mairis Icon and Edeiffs Rock are also strong contenders. Despite her low total rating, Scarlett Clipper could potentially surprise everyone due to her promising lineage.

2.30 Newton Abbot (5 runners)
Talk Tidy Marketing Handicap Chase
3m2f

Based on the total ratings, the top five horses in the 2.30 race at Newton Abbot are as follows:

  1. Tommie Beau (Total: 378.7)
  2. Trevada (Total: 363.1)
  3. Ballinsker (Total: 361.2)
  4. Forgot To Ask (Total: 327.1)
  5. Premiumaccess (Total: 298.7)

Tommie Beau leads the pack in terms of total ratings. However, considering the comments, he has proven to be unpredictable with inconsistent performances, despite a strong win at Plumpton in March. Although he is dropping back in trip off a workable mark, the associated risks are worth considering.

Second on the ratings is Trevada. The comments suggest that he displayed clear promise over hurdles and had a solid start over fences recently. Although the horse is stepping back up significantly in trip, he is a brother to a 3m chase winner, implying that he could perform well in this race. Furthermore, he is also running for an in-form yard, which adds to his appeal. Given these considerations, Trevada might be considered as having an exceptional chance despite his second-place ranking in the total ratings.

Ballinsker, third in ratings, won twice in hurdles and had a convincing victory at Chepstow recently. With only a 4lb increase since his last win, he remains a strong contender and might be considered as having an exceptional chance in this race.

Forgot To Ask, fourth in the ratings, has seen some disappointments since his last win at Stratford last May. Despite going back up in trip, he has something to prove given his recent performance and may need to return to his best form.

Finally, Premiumaccess, ranking fifth in total ratings, has managed to reach the frame multiple times since October, but his record in the chase is less impressive. Despite being well-treated on his best chase form, his only win dates back to December 2020, and the comments suggest that other horses look stronger contenders for this race.

3.30 Newton Abbot (7 runners)
Racing Partnership Novices Handicap Chase
2m5f

Based on the total ratings, the top five horses in the 3.30 race at Newton Abbot are as follows:

  1. Swapped (Total: 378.7)
  2. Chief Black Robe (Total: 362.2)
  3. Imprevu Du Large (Total: 279.0)
  4. Seymour Promise (Total: 263.3)
  5. Mountain Grey (Total: 199.1)

Swapped leads the field in terms of total ratings. However, the horse’s comments suggest that despite a promising start over hurdles, recent performances have been disappointing. The switch to fences and added cheekpieces could potentially lead to an improvement, but this is not guaranteed.

Chief Black Robe ranks second in total ratings, but the comments about him are overwhelmingly positive. After a transformative debut on chase, where he handily defeated six competitors, he seems very well treated under a penalty for the win. Despite dropping back in trip, he appears to be a strong contender and could pose a real threat in this race.

Third in ratings is Imprevu Du Large. While he has yet to secure a major win, his recent performance in a handicap at Ludlow suggests potential. The switch to fences and the drop back in trip could bring out more to offer. The added tongue-tie could also be an indication of expected improvement.

Seymour Promise is ranked fourth in total ratings. The horse showed promise after returning from a long absence with a couple of runner-up efforts over hurdles. However, recent performances have been disappointing, and he carries risks with his return to this sphere.

Mountain Grey is fifth in the total ratings. His performance has been quite underwhelming, with no finishes closer than 13l to a winner. His recent pull-up over fences at Newton Abbot also raises concerns about his chances in this race.

In summary, while Swapped holds the highest rating, his recent form might raise some eyebrows. On the other hand, Chief Black Robe, despite being second in the ratings, stands out as an exceptional contender based on his recent impressive performance.

4.00 Newton Abbot (7 runners)
Download The At The Races App Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f

In the 4.00 race at Newton Abbot, the horses are ranked based on their total ratings as follows:

  1. Maroochi (Total: 348.5)
  2. Kapitaliste (Total: 327.8)
  3. Hunting Percival (Total: 325.8)
  4. Loved Out (Total: 305.7)
  5. Sherborne (Total: 304.1)

Maroochi tops the total ratings. Maroochi had a victory on this course and distance last September, however, the horse’s two subsequent falls raise concerns. After a 188-day break, if Maroochi manages a clean round, there could be potential for a strong performance.

In second place based on ratings is Kapitaliste. This horse has shown consistency with numerous placements, including a recent runner-up position at Worcester two weeks ago. Notably, both of Kapitaliste’s wins have been at this track, hinting at a possible affinity with the course. Considering the horse’s track record and 1lb lower here, Kapitaliste is expected to perform well.

Thirdly, we have Hunting Percival. His best hurdles form suggests potential, but a recent pull-up and a two-year gap since his last win cast doubt on his current form. The switch back to hurdles comes with its risks, making Hunting Percival a less solid choice.

Loved Out, in fourth place based on total ratings, has a victory off this mark at Ffos Las last June and recently ran a close race there. Despite a quick turnaround after a break, Loved Out is expected to be competitive again in this race.

Ranked fifth is Sherborne, who showed a marked improvement after a wind operation, winning smoothly at Ffos Las three weeks ago. Despite a 10lb increase in the weights, if Sherborne can replicate his last performance, he is a strong contender.

In summary, Maroochi, despite leading in the ratings, needs to overcome recent issues with falls to deliver a strong performance. Kapitaliste, who ranks second, stands out as a top pick based on his consistent track record and previous victories at this course. Sherborne, despite being fifth in the ratings, is also worth mentioning given his recent upswing in form following a wind operation.

5.03 Newton Abbot (14 runners)
newtonabbotracing.com Novices Handicap Hurdle
2m2½f

Based on the provided total ratings, the top three contenders for this race are ‘Charlie My Boy (IRE)’, ‘Zoran’, and ‘Shalott (IRE)’.

  1. Charlie My Boy (IRE) – This horse is ranked first in total ratings at 322.7. The comments suggest that Charlie My Boy is an eight-race maiden who finished second in his previous two races for the new yard this spring. He was slightly hampered during the closing stages at Fontwell in his last run, but still managed to come out as a close second. The horse is up 5lb from that race but is considered open to more progress. As the top-rated horse with a seemingly strong form, Charlie My Boy is a strong contender for this race.
  2. Zoran – Zoran ranks second in total ratings with 282.2. While this horse is still 0-6 over hurdles for Paul Nicholls, the comments show that he finished fifth on his recent stable debut at Southwell but wasn’t beaten far. The horse shaped with some promise and is continuing to edge down the weights. If Zoran can build on his recent performance, he may have a solid chance in this race.
  3. Shalott (IRE) – Shalott is third in total ratings at 263.8. This nine-race maiden is returning from a 382-day absence, but his last two races showed promise, finishing a commendable third at both Warwick and Uttoxeter. The yard is reportedly in good form, which could further enhance Shalott’s prospects. This horse could be a serious contender if he can replicate his pre-break performance.

As for other horses with positive comments, despite not being in the top total ratings, ‘Imperial Measure (IRE)’ and ‘Ballygoe (IRE)’ are noteworthy:

  • Imperial Measure (IRE) – This horse has been placed in 2m handicaps at Ffos Las in his last two runs and seems to have potential, especially if he can handle a return to fast ground.
  • Ballygoe (IRE) – Despite being an 11-race maiden, he’s dropped some way in the weights and fell close to the end at Exeter. With a tongue-tie now added after a short break, he could be dangerous.

In summary, ‘Charlie My Boy (IRE)’, ‘Zoran’, and ‘Shalott (IRE)’ stand out as top contenders based on the total ratings. Among them, ‘Charlie My Boy (IRE)’ may have an exceptional chance given his recent strong performances. The ‘Imperial Measure (IRE)’ and ‘Ballygoe (IRE)’, while not as highly rated, may also perform well based on their positive comments.

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