Analysis of the Derby using the Timeform ratings as a guide.

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  1. 131p Military Order
  2. 130 Auguste Rodin
  3. 128p Arrest
  4. 128 Dubai Mile
  5. 127p Passenger
  6. 127p Sprewell
  7. 127p Waipiro
  8. 127 The Foxes
  9. 127 White Birch
  10. 120p San Antonio
  11. 118 Dear My Friend
  12. 117 Adelaide River
  13. 112p Artistic Star
  14. 104p King of Steel

Let’s dig deeper into these:

Military Order is the top-rated horse at 131p. A ‘scopey’ type with a sibling who won this very race and the King George, he has been progressing well. His recent wins include drawing away from Waipiro late on in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The long straight in this race should suit him and his improvement, pedigree, and stamina make him a strong contender.

Auguste Rodin is rated at 130, the son of triple Group 1 winner Rhododendron, he was third-highest rated 2yo in Europe last year. Despite a disappointing performance in the 2,000 Guineas, earlier signals from his trainer suggest something special is expected today. His pedigree and the likelihood of the trip suiting him are positive indicators.

Arrest has a rating of 128p. His form as a 2-year-old was impressive, winning his maiden on good to firm and being just denied by Dubai Mile in a Group 1. Stamina seems to be the least of his problems, but if the weather stays dry, it might affect his performance. Nonetheless, his record suggests he is a strong contender.

Dubai Mile, also rated at 128, is another strong candidate. He was tenacious when he beat Arrest in the Group 1 at Saint-Cloud, and despite a fifth-place finish in the 2,000 Guineas, his fighting spirit could still land him in a strong position.

Passenger is rated at 127p, his debut at Newmarket was impressive. However, he had an unhappy experience in the Dante at York where his path was blocked, yet he still managed to dead-heat for third behind The Foxes. His ability is not clearly defined, but his trainer, who has won this race six times, has recommended he be supplemented.

From the analysis, Military Order stands out with its high ratings and strong performance in recent races. His lineage also adds a strong boost to his potential, with a brother that won this race previously.

In addition to these, a few other horses might be worth a look, despite their lower ratings, based on their promising recent form or positive comments. These include Sprewell, who seems to have greatly improved this year, White Birch, whose best form has yet to be seen and his strong finish in recent races is encouraging, and The Foxes, who has a history of strong performances and a will to win that is hard to deny.

Remember, while ratings offer a good measure of a horse’s potential, they don’t always guarantee success on the day of the race. Various factors such as the condition of the track, the horse’s form on the day, and the strategies employed by the jockeys can all have an impact on the final result.

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