The Gambler’s Fallacy is a common cognitive bias that occurs when someone mistakenly believes that the probability of a particular event happening is influenced by previous events or outcomes.

In simple terms, it is the incorrect belief that the outcome of a random event is somehow connected to or affected by previous outcomes, even though the events are considered independent and unrelated.

For example, let’s say you’re flipping a fair coin. If you were to get “heads” five times in a row, the Gambler’s Fallacy would lead you to believe that the next flip is more likely to be “tails” based on the assumption that there must be a balance or correction due to the string of heads.

While it may feel intuitive to think that the next flip is “due” to be tails, in reality, each coin flip is an independent event with a 50% chance of landing on either heads or tails. Past outcomes do not affect the probabilities of future outcomes.

The key idea here is that the fallacy arises from an incorrect understanding of probabilities and randomness. It is important to recognize that each event has its own independent probability, regardless of what has occurred in the past.

Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy is crucial when making decisions based on probabilities, whether it’s in gambling, investing, or even everyday life situations. It reminds us not to rely on past results to predict future outcomes accurately.