Analysis of my pick of today’s cards based on the Timewise rankings.

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Tue 11th Jul 2023
3.55 Pontefract (7 runners)
Iveco Daily Business Trimline At
Northern Commercials Handicap

6f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Summerghand (IRE) – 618.9
  2. Kitai (IRE) – 571.4
  3. Aphelios – 522.7
  4. It Just Takes Time (IRE) – 504.2
  5. Earls (IRE) – 490.0
  6. Aleezdancer (IRE) – 458.9
  7. Bay Breeze – 452.7

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Summerghand (IRE): Hasn’t been at his best this year and finished midfield in big-field handicaps in the last three starts. However, dropped down the weights and this race is easier than what he’s used to. 1-1 record at the track. Could go well if conditions suit.
  2. Kitai (IRE): Won a 2yo C&D maiden last September and a handicap at Carlisle two weeks ago. Traveled strongly in the last race and expected to be similarly effective now back down to a sprint trip. Lightly raced 3yo with room for improvement. Leading claims.
  3. Aphelios: Showed progress last year after joining the current yard. Not at his best in two runs this season but a recent fifth-place finish at Windsor was a step in the right direction. Visor replaces cheekpieces. Unproven on slow ground.
  4. It Just Takes Time (IRE): Disappointing as a favorite at Ripon in the last race, suffering interference and becoming unbalanced. Previously in top form with wins at Thirsk and Ripon. Could bounce back with a big performance.
  5. Earls (IRE): Won four in a row last season and back on the scoresheet in a big-field handicap at Cork in May. Down the field at the Curragh but still deserving respect based on his previously progressive profile. Cheekpieces go on.
  6. Aleezdancer (IRE): Reappeared with a handicap win at Doncaster. Mixed form since then, but denied a clear run at York two starts ago. On a competitive mark and not ruled out, especially with first-time blinkers.
  7. Bay Breeze: Needs to bounce back from a poor performance at Ripon but showed good form with wins at Ripon and Thirsk prior to that. Can be in the mix if leaving the last race behind.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Kitai (IRE). She has shown promise with previous victories and her recent win at Carlisle indicates her current form. Travelling strongly in the last race suggests she can be effective back down to a sprint trip. As a lightly raced 3-year-old, Kitai has room for improvement and is expected to be a strong contender in this race.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
5.05 Pontefract (7 runners)
Charles Stewart & Co Steve Evans Memorial Handicap
1m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Hi Clare (IRE) – 459.8
  2. Do I Dream (IRE) – 430.5
  3. Lerwick – 428.9
  4. Phoenix Fire (IRE) – 397.9
  5. Paternoster Square (FR) – 345.7
  6. Cassy O (IRE) – 331.9
  7. Mossbawn – 313.8

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Hi Clare (IRE): Won over C&D last month and finished second at Bath last time, bumping into a horse completing a hat-trick. Shown promise on soft ground. Improving profile and strong claims.
  2. Do I Dream (IRE): Posted her second C&D win in April and returned to form with a staying-on second at Carlisle. Effective on good ground and could be competitive back up in trip.
  3. Lerwick: Best performance came when second over C&D last September. Fair fourth at Haydock and suffered an unlucky passage at Doncaster. Retains potential and could be in the mix.
  4. Phoenix Fire (IRE): Easily won a 2yo novice race and showed promise with a third-place finish at Haydock on his second run this season. Possible player in this race.
  5. Paternoster Square (FR): Well beaten on debut but showed improvement with a seventh-place finish at Nottingham and a runner-up at Windsor. Makes handicap debut off a fair mark and expected to progress. Respected.
  6. Cassy O (IRE): On a 14-race losing sequence but went close at Doncaster last month and was a good fourth there last time. Also effective on slow ground. Could be in contention if he doesn’t lose ground at the start.
  7. Mossbawn: Mark has tumbled, but tailed off in his final run for the previous yard and has shown poor form in his two runs for the current stable.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Hi Clare (IRE). She has shown promise with a recent win over C&D and a strong second-place finish at Bath. Her profile is improving, and she holds strong claims in this race. Do I Dream (IRE) and Lerwick are also contenders with their recent performances and potential, respectively. However, Hi Clare appears to be the standout choice.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
6.00 Brighton (7 runners)
At The Races App Form Study Classified Stakes
5½f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Notre Maison – 374.2
  2. Northern Chancer – 246.3
  3. Tilsworth Ony Ta – 243.0
  4. Kodi Dancer (IRE) – 234.2
  5. Arzaak (IRE) – 216.8
  6. Ellie Piper – 208.1
  7. Darlo Pride – 165.9

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Notre Maison: Has two classified wins with cheekpieces on. Comfortably beat Arzaak last time and was a runner-up with some luck at Ffos Las. Strong contender.
  2. Northern Chancer: Unplaced in all 11 starts. Has a bit to find on these terms, but the addition of a visor may help.
  3. Tilsworth Ony Ta: Only 1-28. Showed promise with a close fourth here in May when wearing cheekpieces. Not the hardest to oppose in this race.
  4. Kodi Dancer (IRE): Unlucky not to beat Notre Maison at Ffos Las but followed it with a poor performance at Yarmouth. Capable but carries risks. Overall record of 1-19.
  5. Arzaak (IRE): Struggles to win and was comfortably beaten by Notre Maison last time. Looks vulnerable.
  6. Ellie Piper: Hasn’t performed up to par in 2023. Previously showed promise with good runs last year. Below par recently, especially with the addition of a hood.
  7. Darlo Pride: Ran okay in a 6f handicap with a tongue-tie two starts back but was well beaten in a classified race with cheekpieces added. Now goes in blinkers. Opposable.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Notre Maison. She has performed well with cheekpieces, winning two classified races and beating Arzaak comfortably last time. Despite a bit of luck in her recent runner-up performance, she remains a strong contender. Northern Chancer could also be considered with the addition of a visor, but Notre Maison appears to be the top choice.Tue 11th Jul 2023


6.10 Uttoxeter (8 runners)
Visit stmodwenhomes.co.uk Find Your New Home Novices Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Our Scholar (IRE) – 491.5
  2. Liverpool Knight – 431.9
  3. The Big Jetaway (IRE) – 424.6
  4. Shengai Enki (FR) – 373.6
  5. Activist (FR) – 339.2
  6. Star Legend (IRE) – 314.8
  7. Poppop (FR) – 248.5
  8. Selecto – 216.2

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Our Scholar (IRE): On a hat-trick, having won at Warwick (2m3f) and last time over C&D. Has performed well on good to soft ground. Chance of continuing the winning streak.
  2. Liverpool Knight: Won over 1m3f on the Flat and had a good first run over hurdles when third at Southwell (2m, good). However, struggled on easier ground at Fakenham. Could bounce back.
  3. The Big Jetaway (IRE): Chase winner over 2m1f on good to soft ground. Finished 7l behind Our Scholar over C&D in the last hurdle race. Carries 6lb more this time. Has a chance.
  4. Shengai Enki (FR): Fair form in bumpers, finishing third at Kelso (2m, good to soft). Bought for £28,000 and interesting on hurdles/stable debut.
  5. Activist (FR): Showed promise on the Flat in France up to 1m4f but not as good over hurdles. Has to find improvement to compete with Our Scholar and The Big Jetaway based on their C&D form.
  6. Star Legend (IRE): Showed promise on the Flat up to 1m4f with a best RPR of 80. Interesting that Harry Cobden rides him on hurdles/stable debut instead of Our Scholar. Has a chance.
  7. Poppop (FR): Modest performer in bumpers and needs to improve on two runs over hurdles.
  8. Selecto: Has won three times on the Flat, including over 1m4f on good to soft ground. Could perform well on hurdles debut.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Our Scholar (IRE). He is on a hat-trick, with recent wins at Warwick and over C&D. He has shown good form on good to soft ground and has a strong chance of continuing his winning streak. Liverpool Knight and The Big Jetaway also have chances, but Our Scholar stands out as the top choice.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
7.00 Brighton (7 runners)
Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Handicap
1m2f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Mrembo – 430.3
  2. Chips And Rice – 420.0
  3. Queens Company – 375.5
  4. Giovanni Baglione (IRE) – 347.8
  5. Ermin Street (IRE) – 337.8
  6. Forward Flight (IRE) – 292.8
  7. How Hard Can It Be – 261.8

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Mrembo: Won grinding it out at Newbury (1m3f) in cheekpieces. Only 3lb higher for this race, but previous poor run at Brighton is a concern.
  2. Chips And Rice: Turf winner who made a successful stable debut at Lingfield (1m2f, Polytrack). Ran well at Ascot (1m2f, soft), and the Kempton race last time didn’t suit. In the mix.
  3. Queens Company: Came from off the pace to win at Yarmouth (1m2f, good to firm). A 4lb rise and stronger company found her out at Doncaster. Similar scenario could be expected here.
  4. Giovanni Baglione (IRE): Struggled at Newmarket recently, and has a bit to prove despite being down the weights.
  5. Ermin Street (IRE): Has only won a 1m Southwell maiden on AW. Not shaping like a winner waiting to happen, despite dropping in weights. Tries blinkers.
  6. Forward Flight (IRE): Only win for Alan King was off a 4lb higher mark. Was knocking on the door before failing to fire at Beverley. Worth a try at 1m2f again.
  7. How Hard Can It Be: Running well on the AW and pushed Chips And Rice close at Lingfield (1m2f). Majority of racing has been on AW, so Brighton is a new experience.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Mrembo. Despite a previous poor run at Brighton, she won grinding it out at Newbury and carries only 3lb more for this race. Chips And Rice and Queens Company also have chances, but Mrembo stands out as the top choice.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
7.30 Brighton (11 runners)
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified Stakes
1m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Willing To Please – 321.5
  2. Shabs – 268.5
  3. Runner Bean – 258.2
  4. Centerstage (IRE) – 255.6
  5. Madrinho (IRE) – 251.6
  6. Tranquillity – 249.7
  7. Ceilidh – 243.8
  8. Hector Loza – 236.2
  9. Lord Clenaghcastle (IRE) – 206.7
  10. Plymouth Rock (IRE) – 203.8
  11. Reel Power – 189.1

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Willing To Please: Three-time winner who has been running well, apart from a blip two runs back. Was a closing runner-up in an Ayr classified race (7f) last time and is in contention.
  2. Shabs: Longstanding maiden who has placed multiple times. Chased home two prominent racers in a 1m classified race at Bath. Could be thereabouts.
  3. Runner Bean: Best form has been at 6f, but hasn’t made the frame in eight starts. Having the first run in a classified race.
  4. Centerstage (IRE): Hasn’t made expected progress in handicaps but could be a greater threat at this level. Shown enough to suggest a potential win.
  5. Madrinho (IRE): Veteran having his 100th career start. Hasn’t been great lately but went down narrowly on his last visit to Brighton in May over 7f. Not raced over this distance for a while.
  6. Tranquillity: First six runs were at 5f/6f, but closed to be a third over the extended 7f at Ffos Las recently. Should be a player on the first classified assignment.
  7. Ceilidh: Left Hughie Morrison for £5,000. Placed third over 6f at Brighton before a less successful run over 7f at Kempton. Unraced over this distance.
  8. Hector Loza: Record of 3-35. Effective on downhill tracks, but hasn’t found form since changing trainers.
  9. Lord Clenaghcastle (IRE): Won a classified race on the AW but has been quiet in the last two runs and now with a new trainer.
  10. Plymouth Rock (IRE): Regressed since joining the current yard and returns from a lengthy break. Not easily recommended.
  11. Reel Power: 0-8 and yet to place. Ran decently with the first-time visor at Lingfield in a classified race over slightly shorter distance. Possibilities if building on that.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Willing To Please. With three wins and consistent form, including a recent runner-up finish in a classified race, she looks well placed to be in contention. Shabs and Centerstage also have chances, but Willing To Please stands out as the top choice.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
7.40 Uttoxeter (11 runners)
Visit stmodwenhomes.co.uk Find Your New Home Handicap Chase
2m 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Arbennig (IRE) – 466.0
  2. Gouet Des Bruyeres (FR) – 355.4
  3. Striking Out – 323.8
  4. Chemical Warfare (IRE) – 310.9
  5. Gambie Tiep (FR) – 300.2
  6. Seaforth Mancy (IRE) – 297.1
  7. Famoso (IRE) – 278.6
  8. Millies Mite (IRE) – 253.3
  9. Lonimoss Bareliere (FR) – 213.3
  10. Bandit D’Ainay (FR) – 196.2
  11. Fair To Dream – 158.8

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Arbennig (IRE): Returned to front-running tactics and comfortably won over C&D 19 days ago. A 7lb rise could have been worse. Will Featherstone rides again.
  2. Gouet Des Bruyeres (FR): Had tack issues and finished a remote fourth here last time. Was running quite well before that, including a third-place finish behind Chemical Warfare. The return of cheekpieces could be beneficial.
  3. Striking Out: Maiden hurdle winner. Started well over fences with two seconds but subsequent runs weren’t as encouraging. Return to hurdling at Worcester was also disappointing. This trip may be too sharp.
  4. Chemical Warfare (IRE): Won a Newcastle chase in May but has fallen short in hurdle races since. Bit to p KOrove off this high a mark but still on the shortlist.
  5. Gambie Tiep (FR): Bumper winner in France but mostly disappointing since arriving in Britain. Changed hands recently and has yet to show improvement.
  6. Seaforth Mancy (IRE): Pulled up in his last three hurdles and has had bleeding issues. Could be a better chaser but comes with risks. Blinkers are applied.
  7. Famoso (IRE): Non-runner.
  8. Millies Mite (IRE): Returned to fences with a third-place finish at Fontwell but then ran poorly at Worcester. Still a maiden and may struggle.
  9. Lonimoss Bareliere (FR): Runner-up to Arbennig here last time but was never a threat to the winner. A longstanding maiden.
  10. Bandit D’Ainay (FR): Exposed veteran whose good days have become hard to predict. Safer to look elsewhere.
  11. Fair To Dream: Well behind Famoso at Stratford last time as a 40-1 outsider. Out of the weights.

Based on this analysis, the best pick based on ratings and comments would be Arbennig (IRE). With a convincing win over the course and distance recently and a manageable 7lb rise in the weights, Arbennig seems well positioned to perform well again. Gouet Des Bruyeres (FR) and Chemical Warfare (IRE) are also contenders, but Arbennig stands out as the top choice.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
8.00 Brighton (8 runners)
Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter Fillies Handicap
7f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Diamond Cottage – 397.6
  2. Storymaker – 389.3
  3. Bonkersinabundance (IRE) – 375.6
  4. Spanish Mane (IRE) – 374.0
  5. Honeymooner (IRE) – 362.4
  6. Film Star – 340.3
  7. Ikkari (IRE) – 333.4
  8. Menalippe (IRE) – 319.5

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Diamond Cottage: Has won three of her last six starts, all over the C&D. Competitive and narrow winning margins have resulted in a slight weight increase. Expected to be in the mix.
  2. Storymaker: Finished third in all three novice runs over various distances. Keenness proved costly in a recent handicap outing. The drop in trip may be more suitable.
  3. Bonkersinabundance (IRE): Winner over 6f at this course last month. Showed resilience to finish fourth after a slow start at Leicester. Returning to a longer distance could work in her favor.
  4. Spanish Mane (IRE): Solid form last summer, including a victory in this race. Returned to winning ways at Lingfield over 7f. Looks competitive based on recent performance.
  5. Honeymooner (IRE): Improved with blinkers, winning at Windsor over 1m. Carries a penalty but the form of the win looks decent for this level.
  6. Film Star: Close second on handicap debut over the C&D, followed by a comfortable win on the return visit. Up 5lb in the weights but appears to have found the right level.
  7. Ikkari (IRE): Finished second at Wolverhampton over 7f in her first start after wind surgery, followed by a poor run over 6f at Kempton. First visit to this course, but chances based on the penultimate effort.
  8. Menalippe (IRE): Won two 7f nursery races at Leicester. Showed good form with a second-place finish over the C&D in May but needs to rediscover that form. Missed the start in her recent outing.

Based on this analysis, Diamond Cottage seems to be the best pick. With consistent form over the C&D and recent victories, she is well placed to perform strongly again. Spanish Mane and Film Star also have solid chances based on their recent form.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
8.10 Uttoxeter (12 runners)
stmodwenhomes.co.uk Handicap Hurdle
2m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Magic Mike (IRE) – 453.8
  2. Lightening Company (IRE) – 400.9
  3. What Will Be (IRE) – 354.5
  4. Coeur Aimant (FR) – 332.3
  5. Rock On Tommy – 315.5
  6. Pot Of Paint – 288.8
  7. Professor Calculus – 279.9
  8. Faron (IRE) – 273.3
  9. African Sun (IRE) – 269.8
  10. Robbers Bridge (IRE) – 256.0
  11. Beautiful Surprise – 253.3
  12. Fou Diligence (IRE) – 212.2

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Magic Mike (IRE): Has won his last two races, including a victory at Perth over 2m on good to soft ground. Still on a fair mark and expected to perform well.
  2. Lightening Company (IRE): Showed promise with a third-place finish on testing ground at Wetherby. Previously beat a subsequent winner on the Flat. Disappointing in recent runs.
  3. What Will Be (IRE): Second in a C&D selling hurdle on good to soft ground, wearing blinkers for the first time. Faces a tougher challenge in this race.
  4. Coeur Aimant (FR): Yet to win over hurdles but finished a close second at Cartmel nearly a year ago. No headgear this time but comes from an in-form yard. Considered as a possibility.
  5. Rock On Tommy: Winner of a C&D selling hurdle in June 2022. Struggled in subsequent runs but may have failed to stay longer distances. The return to 2m could help.
  6. Pot Of Paint: Fair handicapper on the Flat but hasn’t shown much over hurdles. Has joined a new yard and could show improvement with the application of a tongue-tie.
  7. Professor Calculus: Won a novice handicap at Taunton and finished third in an ordinary handicap at Newton Abbot. Now tries cheekpieces. Soft ground may not be ideal.
  8. Faron (IRE): Won a maiden and a novice hurdle in Ireland last season but has been disappointing since joining the current yard. Well handicapped but needs to prove himself.
  9. African Sun (IRE): Fair third in a Southwell novice handicap but has produced ordinary efforts since then. Carries 2lb extra and is out of the handicap.
  10. Robbers Bridge (IRE): Maiden who tends to pull hard. Has been in the frame over longer distances. Could settle better over 2m.
  11. Beautiful Surprise: Former 7f juvenile winner on the Flat. Ran fifth at Worcester but is out of the handicap and softer ground may not suit.
  12. Fou Diligence (IRE): Ex-Irish runner with a poor strike-rate. Has been out of form recently. Others appear stronger contenders.

Based on this analysis, Magic Mike (IRE) stands out as the best pick. With two consecutive wins, including one on similar ground, he is in good form and expected to perform well. Lightening Company (IRE) and What Will Be (IRE) could also be considered as contenders based on their previous performances.

Tue 11th Jul 2023
8.20 Tramore (12 runners)
Irish Injured Jockeys Supported
By Tramore Racecourse Handicap (47-65)

2m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. All In Peder (FR) – 435.6
  2. Franno (IRE) – 413.7
  3. Walnut Beach (IRE) – 395.7
  4. Mephisto (IRE) – 360.9
  5. Your Honor (IRE) – 340.0
  6. Appian Way (FR) – 307.4
  7. Wild Shot – 307.2
  8. Ballybaun Star (IRE) – 304.6
  9. Kalmira (IRE) – 303.7
  10. Scalor (FR) – 261.6
  11. Honketonk Angel (IRE) – 248.5
  12. Craic Eile (IRE) – 226.2

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. All In Peder (FR): Coming off a win over 2m and ran well over 1m5f in the previous start. Now high in the weights but may excel at this trip.
  2. Franno (IRE): Won narrowly over 1m4f recently and carries a penalty. Reckoned as a contender.
  3. Walnut Beach (IRE): Longstanding maiden on the Flat but has been performing well over hurdles. Capable off this mark and enters the reckoning.
  4. Mephisto (IRE): Three Flat wins, two on the AW, but has been less impressive on turf recently.
  5. Your Honor (IRE): Has previous wins over 1m2f/1m3f and performed well over hurdles. Considered as one to watch back on the Flat.
  6. Appian Way (FR): Took time to shed maiden status over hurdles but recorded consecutive wins in handicap hurdles. Pulled up on stable debut over hurdles and hasn’t shown much on the Flat.
  7. Wild Shot: Multiple winner under both codes and has been consistent with recent fourth-place finishes over shorter distances. Worth a try over this distance on the Flat.
  8. Ballybaun Star (IRE): Refused to race in a previous event and lost lengths at the start in the recent run. Risky at the moment.
  9. Kalmira (IRE): AW winner and finished second over 1m5f, including a close battle with All In Peder. Weighted to reverse placings in the rematch.
  10. Scalor (FR): Last win came over fences and had a disappointing return to the Flat. Overall strike-rate is not impressive.
  11. Honketonk Angel (IRE): Down the field in maiden races from 1m2f to 1m4f. Potential to raise her game now handicapping at a modest level.
  12. Craic Eile (IRE): Nearly won a handicap hurdle but inferior to some of today’s opposition. Still seeking a win on the Flat.

Based on this analysis, All In Peder (FR) appears to be the best pick. Coming off a recent win and showing good form over both shorter and longer distances, he is well positioned to perform strongly in this race. Franno (IRE) and Walnut Beach (IRE) also show promise based on their recent wins and consistent performances.

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