Analysis of my pick of today’s cards based on the Timewise rankings. (In race-time order)

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Fri 14th Jul 2023
2.05 York (8 runners)
William Hill Epic Value Handicap
7f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Northern Express (IRE) – 626.9
  2. Able Kane – 575.7
  3. Vafortino (IRE) – 551.0
  4. Zip – 549.0
  5. Bopedro (FR) – 538.3
  6. Another Investment (IRE) – 496.8
  7. Documenting – 467.7
  8. Gweedore – 453.4

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Able Kane: Returned to form with a win at Newmarket, but faces a tougher race now with a higher weight and back up in grade.
  2. Another Investment (IRE): In good form, with a 5-length win over C&D in a Class 3 handicap. An 11lb rise may not be harsh, but it remains to be seen if he can back it up.
  3. Bopedro (FR): Won at Newmarket and finished second over C&D. Kept on well when sixth in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot. 1m may suit best.
  4. Documenting: Inconsistent 10-year-old, but has been a good third in his last two visits to York. Best turf form is on good/faster ground. Can’t be ruled out each-way.
  5. Gweedore: Up and down this year, but went close over this C&D. May bounce back with a bold bid. Seems versatile ground-wise.
  6. Northern Express (IRE): Good record at York and in fine form this year. Close in this race last year and has been performing well with wins and placings. Firmly in calculations.
  7. Vafortino (IRE): Won the Victoria Cup at Ascot and had a good third in the same handicap this year. Fair tenth in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot. Could be thereabouts in this less competitive race.
  8. Zip: In top form on AW, but best turf form has come on soft and heavy ground. Bounced back from a midfield finish with a close second at Newcastle. Rain would be beneficial.

Based on this analysis, Northern Express seems to be the best pick. With the highest rating and a strong record at York, Northern Express has been performing well this year and has a good chance of being in the mix. Vafortino and Bopedro are also contenders based on their previous performances. The other runners have some potential but may face challenges or inconsistencies.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
3.25 Ascot (13 runners)
Close Brothers Property Division Handicap (Rnd)
1m

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Monopolise – 516.4
  2. Mustajaab – 501.2
  3. Just Bring It (IRE) – 471.3
  4. Oliver Show (IRE) – 461.2
  5. Skysail – 458.4
  6. Metal Merchant (IRE) – 458.0
  7. Imperial Ace (IRE) – 441.1
  8. Oj Lifestyle (IRE) – 434.9
  9. Good Gracious – 431.1
  10. Tyndrum Gold – 421.1
  11. Theme Park – 418.6
  12. Caragio (IRE) – 416.7
  13. Snipers Eye (FR) – 368.1

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Caragio (IRE): All starts over 7f, with a win in a Leicester maiden. Out of the frame in both handicaps since returning. Cheekpieces given a go.
  2. Good Gracious: Made a successful nursery debut at Newcastle and fourth at Haydock. Considered, especially with first-time blinkers.
  3. Imperial Ace (IRE): Did well on the AW in the winter, but out of the frame in both turf handicaps since returning. May settle better in this bigger field after being gelded.
  4. Just Bring It (IRE): Made a winning return at Kempton and two good efforts on turf. Unlucky not to finish second in a previous race. A player if bouncing back.
  5. Metal Merchant (IRE): Won twice as a 2yo and had solid efforts in May. Not completely disgraced in the Britannia at Ascot. Could be in the reckoning.
  6. Monopolise: Made it 3-10 with a win at Yarmouth. 6lb penalty makes things more difficult, but has some form.
  7. Mustajaab: Narrow wins in six starts, with the latest on his return from a break. Made no impression in the Britannia at Ascot. Back in calmer waters but others hold more compelling claims.
  8. Oj Lifestyle (IRE): 125-1 winner at Newbury and ran well at Chelmsford. Well-beaten last on handicap debut. Others more convincing.
  9. Oliver Show (IRE): Progressive in four starts, including a successful handicap debut at Kempton. Has to prove himself back on turf but could have further improvement in him.
  10. Skysail: Successful handicap debut at Goodwood, but struggled on different ground at Salisbury. Would benefit from rain. Cheekpieces given a go.
  11. Snipers Eye (FR): Progressive in three starts, finishing well behind a good horse at Newmarket. Open to further improvement as a handicap debutant.
  12. Theme Park: Won a Kempton novice and had a good effort at York. Third at Chester recently. Should be fine over a stiff 1m. Considered.
  13. Tyndrum Gold: Won two Kempton novices but only managed fifth on turf debut. Form of that race has worked out well, but still has something to prove on handicap debut.

Based on this analysis, Monopolise seems to be the best pick. With the highest rating and recent form, Monopolise has a good chance to perform well in this race. Just Bring It and Metal Merchant are also contenders based on their performances and consistency. The other runners have varying degrees of potential, but Monopolise appears to be the strongest choice.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
5.00 Kilbeggan (16 runners)
KilbegganRaces.com Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m3f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Tina Meehan (IRE) – 469.1
  2. Castra Vetera (IRE) – 435.6
  3. The Grey Dove (IRE) – 340.7
  4. Coastguard Lady (IRE) – 249.1
  5. Dalgan Park (IRE) – 238.4
  6. Ballycommon Chapel (IRE) – 209.7
  7. Andyourbirdcansing (IRE) – 200.1
  8. Another Red Cat (IRE) – 196.5
  9. Mandilou (IRE) – 193.2
  10. Georgiabell (IRE) – 190.1
  11. Cappacurry Croi (IRE) – 189.9
  12. Sandy Montana (IRE) – 181.4
  13. Ivy Hall (IRE) – 180.3
  14. Hot Shimmer (IRE) – 153.1
  15. Nagambler (IRE) – 125.6
  16. Sleep Sound (IRE) – 114.3
  17. Gentle And Kind (IRE) – 113.5
  18. Lady Lilly (IRE) – 16.1

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Andyourbirdcansing (IRE): Tailed off sixth on debut, may need more time and further based on pedigree.
  2. Another Red Cat (IRE): Well held in a bumper on rules debut and beaten a long way in a point-to-point.
  3. Ballycommon Chapel (IRE): Modest Flat maiden making hurdles debut, poor on latest Flat start.
  4. Cappacurry Croi (IRE): Well-held on four hurdle starts so far, needs more in first-time cheekpieces.
  5. Castra Vetera (IRE): Previously a useful prospect and a Listed bumper winner. Returned from a long break with a pulled-up run in a Grade 2 novice hurdle. Down in grade here and has strong claims.
  6. Coastguard Lady (IRE): Makes hurdles debut, showed promise on debut in a bumper but folded tamely on the next start. Could be suited to better ground.
  7. Dalgan Park (IRE): Minor promise in four starts over hurdles, well held at Tipperary last time. Needs improvement.
  8. Gentle And Kind (IRE): Landed a point-to-point and comes from a top yard. Interesting to see market support.
  9. Georgiabell (IRE): Hasn’t shown enough in two hurdle starts, unlikely to be competitive here.
  10. Hot Shimmer (IRE): Stand-out effort came when third in a maiden hurdle. Hasn’t progressed since and difficult to see her involved.
  11. Ivy Hall (IRE): Pulled up in her last start, now trying cheekpieces. Likely needs further in time.
  12. Lady Lilly (IRE): Belated debut as an 8-year-old. Tough ask.
  13. Mandilou (IRE): Point winner who slipped up on rules debut. Tougher task here.
  14. Nagambler (IRE): Pulled up in a bumper on debut. Difficult to make a case for.
  15. Sandy Montana (IRE): Tailed off on debut, hood taken off. Unlikely to feature.
  16. Sleep Sound (IRE): Well-bred, worth a market check, but no form to assess.
  17. The Grey Dove (IRE): Showed useful form in bumpers and made an encouraging start to hurdling. Step up in trip should suit. A player in this race.
  18. Tina Meehan (IRE): Well-supported and impressive winner in a bumper. Smart recruit to hurdling. Strong contender.

Based on this analysis, Tina Meehan appears to be the best pick. With the highest rating and an impressive bumper win, she looks like a smart recruit to hurdling and has strong claims in this race. Castra Vetera, The Grey Dove, and Coastguard Lady are also contenders based on their respective performances and potential. The other runners have shown limited form or have not yet demonstrated their capabilities.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
5.10 Ascot (10 runners)
Tide Handicap
6f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Spanish Star (IRE) – 610.9
  2. Popmaster (IRE) – 524.2
  3. Ingra Tor (IRE) – 522.0
  4. Temple Bruer – 512.7
  5. Haymaker – 510.5
  6. Fernando Rah – 510.2
  7. Havana Pusey – 473.5
  8. Lucky Man (IRE) – 455.9
  9. Great Max (IRE) – 431.4
  10. Hello Me (IRE) – 354.7

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Fernando Rah: Only 3lb higher than his win at Southwell, but couldn’t perform well over 5f at Windsor last month. Return to 6f and cheekpieces could help.
  2. Great Max (IRE): Useful 2yo but hasn’t won since debut. Ran decently on stable debut but hasn’t built on it in subsequent runs. First run over 6f.
  3. Havana Pusey: Unexposed 3yo, won a maiden and ran well in Listed company. Steady run for third on handicap debut. Potential for improvement.
  4. Haymaker: Ran well at Newbury on reappearance and held off Spanish Star at Windsor. Respectable fourth at Epsom. Expected to perform well.
  5. Hello Me (IRE): Won a 6f handicap at Kempton. Disappointed at Nottingham, reportedly unsuited by the ground. May be vulnerable at this level.
  6. Ingra Tor (IRE): Solid handicap form as a 3yo, ran well on AW in the spring. Low mileage and the yard is in good form. Cannot be discounted.
  7. Lucky Man (IRE): Won a sprint at York and ran well in the Ayr Gold Cup. Disappointed on York reappearance. Best form on good or slower ground.
  8. Popmaster (IRE): Finished second in last season’s Wokingham. Excusable runs this year, showed ability in close 7f finish at Newbury. Likes the C&D.
  9. Spanish Star (IRE): Better than ever at the age of eight, winning at Goodwood and Epsom. Fine fifth at Royal Ascot. Should remain competitive.
  10. Temple Bruer: Hasn’t looked back since joining this yard, winning five of his last nine starts. Strong win at Newmarket but faces a 6lb rise in a stronger race.

Based on this analysis, Spanish Star appears to be the best pick. With the highest rating and recent successes at Goodwood and Epsom, along with a strong performance at Royal Ascot, Spanish Star is expected to remain competitive in this race. Popmaster and Haymaker also show promise based on their respective comments and past performances. The other runners have mixed form or have not demonstrated enough to be considered top contenders in this race.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
5.15 Cork (19 runners)
Buy Tickets On http://www.corkracecourse.ie Maiden Hurdle
2m1f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Great Bear – 428.2
  2. Moon Rise Beauty (FR) – 397.4
  3. Chrisco (FR) – 384.1
  4. Sherodan (IRE) – 360.4
  5. Blackcastle Storm – 353.9
  6. Second Intention (IRE) – 329.0
  7. The Mediator (IRE) – 318.8
  8. Tideways Hero (IRE) – 299.2
  9. Breath Caught – 282.2
  10. Lets Do This (IRE) – 277.6
  11. Jimmy Boy (IRE) – 223.7
  12. Perzzini (IRE) – 213.6
  13. Blue In The West (IRE) – 203.4
  14. Longagoanfarbehind (FR) – 200.7
  15. The Border Boy (IRE) – 198.7
  16. Beanie To Sea (IRE) – 186.2
  17. Honey Roll Over (IRE) – 178.7
  18. Mo Chruinne (IRE) – 176.4
  19. Ladyeze Man (IRE) – 162.4
  20. Lacken Run (IRE) – 147.8
  21. Uiscenangeamharta (IRE) – 59.1
  22. Crinaloo Flyer (IRE) – 10.4

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Beanie To Sea (IRE): Nothing to recommend so far.
  2. Blackcastle Storm: Won a maiden on the all-weather and over extended 1m2f. Pleasing debut in 2023, but the hood is already a concern.
  3. Blue In The West (IRE): Second reserve. Winning pointer, but may need more experience and looks more like a handicap type.
  4. Breath Caught: RPR 103 on the flat in Britain, but has struggled in Irish hurdles. Latest performance was better but in a poor race, took a heavy fall late.
  5. Chrisco (FR): Alarmingly weak in the market lately and ran accordingly. Hard to fancy despite respectable previous runs. Drops in trip but finishes weakly.
  6. Crinaloo Flyer (IRE): Dam fell in only point-to-point start. Closely related to a useful hurdle winner. Trainer has a low strike rate.
  7. Great Bear: Grand dual-code type, stays well on the flat. Roughly ran to mark on stable debut. Absence is a concern, but considered the one to beat.
  8. Honey Roll Over (IRE): Huge odds so far in hurdling and ran accordingly.
  9. Jimmy Boy (IRE): It’s been a long time since he justified his rating and doesn’t appear appealing.
  10. Lacken Run (IRE): First reserve. Tailed off at Clonmel.
  11. Ladyeze Man (IRE): 80s, tailed off at Clonmel.
  12. Lets Do This (IRE): 18s, unimpressive in both hurdle starts. May need a handicap.
  13. Longagoanfarbehind (FR): Quick return after a midfield finish at Roscommon. Awaits a mark and best watched.
  14. Mo Chruinne (IRE): Third reserve. Quiet performances so far, best watched.
  15. Moon Rise Beauty (FR): Bumper winner, but disappointing hurdling performances sandwiched by a decent second at Limerick. Trained by a top trainer and can’t be ruled out.
  16. Perzzini (IRE): 9-4 in Sedgefield bumper over a year ago but has disappointed as a favorite. Nice pedigree, and the new yard could improve him.
  17. Second Intention (IRE): 66s, pleasing start at Limerick, but never a threat. Runner-up was disappointing in a subsequent race. Lovely pedigree and potential for improvement.
  18. Sherodan (IRE): Very promising bumper winner in 2021, not seen since. Showed retained ability behind an odds-on shot at Ballinrobe. More depth in this race, but could go one better.
  19. The Border Boy (IRE): Down the field in a bumper in June. Hooded for hurdles debut.
  20. The Mediator (IRE): Classy bumper winner, but frustrating since then, costly to follow. Poor performance when last seen. Top trainer may find the key to him.
  21. Tideways Hero (IRE): Pulled up in a point. Pleasing hurdling debut at Punchestown, showing definite ability. This race has more depth.
  22. Uiscenangeamharta (IRE): Half-brother to a point winner. Dam unraced. Yard has a low strike rate with hurdlers.

Based on this analysis, Great Bear appears to be the best pick. With the highest rating and a strong dual-code background, Great Bear is considered the one to beat in this race. Moon Rise Beauty and Sherodan also show promise based on their comments and previous performances. The other runners have either shown inconsistency or have yet to impress.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
5.30 York (11 runners)
William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Apprentice Handicap
1m4f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Obsidian Knight (IRE) – 450.7
  2. Natchez Trace – 443.8
  3. Savrola (IRE) – 408.9
  4. A La Francaise – 403.6
  5. Sea Stone (IRE) – 395.5
  6. Sea Grey – 383.8
  7. Bringbackmemories (FR) – 374.8
  8. Gibside – 372.7
  9. Ready To Shine (IRE) – 369.3
  10. Bollin Margaret – 358.6
  11. Gastronomy – 308.9

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. A La Francaise: Runner-up in her last two appearances, narrowly beaten in a valuable Sunday Series race at Beverley. Expected to give another good account despite a 2lb rise in weight.
  2. Bollin Margaret: Scored a 6-length victory at Thirsk and has consistently made the frame in four consecutive races since then. Not much room for error off the current mark, but expected to be in contention.
  3. Bringbackmemories (FR): Broke through for a win at Haydock and followed up with a keeping-on second at Beverley. Due to go up another 2lb but should be suited by the move back up in trip. A good chance.
  4. Gastronomy: Showed promise in a second-place finish at Ripon on seasonal/stable debut. Didn’t replicate that form on soft ground but may still have potential.
  5. Gibside: Posted a career-best performance with a stylish win at Carlisle, followed by a lesser performance on soft ground. May fare better on the quicker surface at York.
  6. Natchez Trace: Returned to form with an AW win and a creditable third at Chester. Can sometimes harm chances by racing too freely but in good form.
  7. Obsidian Knight (IRE): Has won on Polytrack at Lingfield and gave a good account with a second-place finish at Newbury on turf. Shouldn’t be far away if in similar form.
  8. Ready To Shine (IRE): Won at Thirsk and followed up with a close second at Haydock. Running before a 2lb rise takes effect and not yet fully exposed. Respected.
  9. Savrola (IRE): Made a winning seasonal/stable debut at Wolverhampton and had excuses for a last-place finish at Salisbury. Bred to be suited by the longer trip and remains of interest.
  10. Sea Grey: Without a win since a debut in November 2021 but has shown promise. Kept on well for third place behind Bringbackmemories at Haydock. Should be fine over the longer trip.
  11. Sea Stone (IRE): Runner-up over today’s trip in the UAE and hasn’t been seen since a lesser effort there. Current mark should be workable if fully tuned up.

Based on this analysis, Obsidian Knight (IRE) seems to be the best pick. With the highest rating and a good account in his recent turf performance, Obsidian Knight is expected to be in contention. Bringbackmemories and Ready To Shine (IRE) also show promise and have been in good form. The other runners have either shown inconsistencies or need to prove themselves further.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
7.20 Kilbeggan (13 runners)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase
3m1f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. The Friday Man – 593.1
  2. Au Fleuron (FR) – 509.5
  3. Desertmore House (IRE) – 495.4
  4. Whatsavailable (IRE) – 401.0
  5. Papal Lodge (IRE) – 384.8
  6. Sky Sprinter (IRE) – 363.0
  7. Doctor Churchill (IRE) – 309.2
  8. Summer Tide (IRE) – 306.8
  9. Gali Flight (FR) – 284.6
  10. Riggs (IRE) – 276.0
  11. Rust To Riches (IRE) – 231.6
  12. Bessy Bradley (IRE) – 221.5
  13. Finding Freedom (IRE) – 196.4

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Au Fleuron (FR): Bumper and maiden hurdle winner who has been performing well in smart handicap company. However, has been below form in the last two outings and was beaten by a large margin on his chasing debut. Considered a stable second-string.
  2. Bessy Bradley (IRE): Rated just 80 over hurdles and has no chance in this company on his chasing debut.
  3. Desertmore House (IRE): Dual hurdle winner at Downpatrick and came close at Kilbeggan over 3m. Point-to-point win should help on chasing debut, and has a chance of being involved.
  4. Doctor Churchill (IRE): Disappointing in his last two hurdle starts and needs a major improvement with cheekpieces on his chasing debut.
  5. Finding Freedom (IRE): Point-to-point winner who has been well-beaten in all rules starts and is not fancied in this company.
  6. Gali Flight (FR): A maiden after 20 hurdle and five chase starts. Has to find improvement to compete with the best in this field.
  7. Papal Lodge (IRE): Won a handicap hurdle at Thurles but hasn’t reached that level in subsequent races. Best to watch on chasing debut.
  8. Riggs (IRE): Formerly a smart hurdler with a modest record. Beaten by a considerable margin on his chasing debut and needs significant improvement.
  9. Rust To Riches (IRE): Point-to-point winner who has been well-beaten in recent handicap chases. Faces a tough task in this company.
  10. Sky Sprinter (IRE): Modest ability shown in bumpers and a maiden hurdle. Returning from a year off to make his chasing debut and has a lot to find.
  11. Summer Tide (IRE): Maiden hurdle winner who was beaten by 29l in his second chase start. Could be more interesting in handicaps after this race.
  12. The Friday Man: Winner of four races over hurdles, including a victory at Cheltenham on comeback. Performed well in two beginners’ chases and looks likely to handle the longer trip. Considered the powerful yard’s first-string.
  13. Whatsavailable (IRE): Useful hurdler with wins at Fairyhouse but below form in the last two starts. Failed to complete both previous chase runs and is opposable.

Based on this analysis, The Friday Man appears to be the best pick. With the highest rating and consistent performances in beginners’ chases, The Friday Man is expected to be a strong contender. Desertmore House and Au Fleuron (FR) also show potential, while the other runners have either shown inconsistency or need to prove themselves further.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
7.30 Chester (10 runners)
Expleo Handicap
1m3½f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Box To Box (IRE) – 521.6
  2. Dark Pine (IRE) – 495.4
  3. Baryshnikov – 489.1
  4. Cormier (IRE) – 487.1
  5. Ferrari Queen (IRE) – 478.4
  6. Sovereign Spirit – 449.5
  7. Dream Harder (IRE) – 445.2
  8. Sonnerie Power (FR) – 425.5
  9. Mr Curiosity – 409.7
  10. Demilion (IRE) – 376.3

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Baryshnikov: Has a strong record at Chester, winning three races over 1m2f. Expected to perform well if there is a strong pace, and stamina will be tested over the longer trip.
  2. Box To Box (IRE): Front-runner who has a good record at Chester, including a win in this race last year. Prefers conditions to dry out and may face competition for the lead.
  3. Cormier (IRE): Has had success in both codes and won a Flat race at Chester last summer. Returns from a break after undergoing wind surgery and may be best watched for now.
  4. Dark Pine (IRE): Better suited to a soft surface and had an unlucky loss of unbeaten course record at Chester. Stamina for this distance is not fully proven but deserves respect.
  5. Demilion (IRE): Enthusiastic front-runner who won a handicap debut and placed second at Chester. Conditions should suit better, but not the only possible pacemaker.
  6. Dream Harder (IRE): Multiple wins on the All-Weather and has shown promise on turf. Needs to bounce back from a disappointing run as a favorite in his last start.
  7. Ferrari Queen (IRE): Faced tough competition after winning her first two starts. Drops to handicap company but still faces a competitive field.
  8. Mr Curiosity: Dual turf winner in 2021 but has limited recent runs. Longer trip should suit, but still needs to prove himself.
  9. Sonnerie Power (FR): Unexposed 4-year-old who won on handicap debut. Has performed well on both turf and All-Weather surfaces and could be in the frame.
  10. Sovereign Spirit: Handy sort with three wins this year. Has struggled in soft ground conditions and may be best watched unless the conditions dry out significantly.

Based on this analysis, Box To Box (IRE) seems to be the best pick. With a high rating, a previous win in this race, and a preference for front-running, Box To Box has a strong chance of performing well. Dark Pine (IRE) and Baryshnikov also show promise based on their records at Chester and their ability to handle the distance. However, Box To Box stands out as the top choice.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
8.05 Chester (8 runners)
Excell Supply Handicap
5½f 

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Lihou – 553.8
  2. Roman Dragon – 543.2
  3. Count Dorsay (IRE) – 528.4
  4. Shalaa Asker – 508.8
  5. Origintrail (IRE) – 468.7
  6. Recon Mission (IRE) – 433.4
  7. Bezzas Lad (IRE) – 409.7
  8. Huddle Up (IRE) – 367.9

Now let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Bezzas Lad (IRE): Has two front-running wins at Lingfield this year and was a good second over 6f at Chester four weeks ago. Better drawn today and still well treated. May face competition for the early lead from stablemate Recon Mission.
  2. Count Dorsay (IRE): Ended a lengthy losing run with a win at Hamilton two weeks ago. Has run well at Chester in the past and would appreciate further rain. Strong claims.
  3. Huddle Up (IRE): Has two wins on slower than good ground in Ireland. Has been running well in defeat this year. Drawn wider than ideal but the intermediate trip could suit.
  4. Lihou: Performs well at Chester with two course wins over 6f. Had a good season apart from a blip at Epsom. Short-head second over 5f at Chester last month behind a subsequent winner. Unlikely to be bothered by the conditions. Strong candidate back down in class.
  5. Origintrail (IRE): Had two wins over 6f on good ground last year, including one at Chester. Progress has stalled since then. Decent run at York on return but needs to step up today.
  6. Recon Mission (IRE): Runner-up twice off a lower mark earlier this year. Fair third at Bath last week. Inside stall and jockey Franny Norton are positives to consider.
  7. Roman Dragon: All four wins have come at Chester over 6f. Dominated in his last race at Chester 13 days ago. Manageable 5lb rise and handles soft ground. Should be in the mix with a useful 3lb claimer.
  8. Shalaa Asker: Been in good form since December, with four wins in 2023. Made all to win at Pontefract 19 days ago. Rarely seen on slower than good ground but handles soft ground. Widest stall tempers enthusiasm.

Based on this analysis, Lihou appears to be the best pick. With a high rating, strong performances at Chester, and a recent close second at the track, Lihou seems well-suited for this race. Count Dorsay and Roman Dragon also have strong claims, but Lihou stands out as the top choice.

Fri 14th Jul 2023
8.10 Cork (15 runners)
Coolagown Stud Flat Race
2m1f

Based on the ratings provided, here’s the ranking of the runners from highest to lowest:

  1. Beauforts Storm (IRE) – 346.2
  2. Faux Fur (FR) – 287.8
  3. Charlies Dilemma (IRE) – 224.0
  4. Dream Shaper (IRE) – 192.1
  5. Shannonbreeze (IRE) – 134.6
  6. Pondhill Pulse (IRE) – 123.0
  7. Alittlesetback (IRE) – 119.2
  8. Shoot Champagne (IRE) – 80.7
  9. Money To Burn (IRE) – 56.5
  10. Glen Kiln (IRE) – 47.3
  11. Black Vega (IRE) – 38.7
  12. Calendar House (IRE) – 34.2
  13. Aleish Lass (IRE) – 23.0
  14. Nothing Hectic (IRE) – 17.0
  15. Loch Awe (IRE) – 7.3

Let’s assess the comments for each runner:

  1. Aleish Lass (IRE): Debutante with strong breeding but probably best watched unless there is significant market support.
  2. Alittlesetback (IRE): Pulled up and didn’t feature on debut, not expected to be a contender.
  3. Beauforts Storm (IRE): Made an encouraging debut at the Curragh, finishing strongly despite being worn down late. Considered a major player.
  4. Black Vega (IRE): Well-bred first foal with notable siblings. Market support would be worth noting on belated debut.
  5. Calendar House (IRE): Half-sister to multiple winners, worth checking the market for further insights.
  6. Charlie’s Dilemma (IRE): Didn’t perform well on debut but the race appeared stronger. Could show improvement in this race.
  7. Dream Shaper (IRE): Promising debut effort in a Kilbeggan bumper, but more will likely be required here.
  8. Faux Fur (FR): Showed promise on debut at Ballinrobe, but couldn’t replicate that performance when beaten at odds-on in a slow-run race. May perform better with a stronger pace.
  9. Glen Kiln (IRE): Fourth foal of a winning mare, worth monitoring the market.
  10. Loch Awe (IRE): Half-sister to a winner but unlikely to make a winning debut.
  11. Money To Burn (IRE): Debutant with a respectable pedigree, market support would provide valuable insights.
  12. Nothing Hectic (IRE): Mizzou filly with useful relatives, but likely needs more time to develop.
  13. Pondhill Pulse (IRE): Tailed off on debut, now fitted with a tongue tie.
  14. Shannonbreeze (IRE): Tailed off in a bumper last month, now fitted with a tongue tie.
  15. Shoot Champagne (IRE): Mahler filly with promising relatives, a newcomer from a respected source. Market expectations will be insightful.

Based on this analysis, Beauforts Storm appears to be the best pick. With a high rating and an encouraging debut at the Curragh, Beauforts Storm is considered a major player in this race. Faux Fur showed promise but may need a stronger pace to perform at her best. Charlie’s Dilemma could improve from his disappointing debut, and Black Vega is an interesting contender to watch for market support. However, Beauforts Storm stands out as the top choice.

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