My pick of Monday’s racing.

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Mon 28th Aug 2023
2.05 Downpatrick (10 runners)
A J C Group Maiden Hurdle
2m2f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Signora Di Milano (IRE)
    • Pros: Highest points on data, recent good performance finishing second.
    • Cons: Only twice-raced which means less form to evaluate.
  2. Fortuna Favente (IRE)
    • Pros: Promising performance on the last outing, expected to show improvement.
    • Cons: Inexperienced with just one NH race.
  3. Dubeyeracingcraic (IRE)
    • Pros: Fair form on the Flat and decent recent performance in a novice hurdle.
    • Cons: Transitioning form might not always translate between Flat and hurdles.

Summary Signora Di Milano stands out as a strong contender based on both data points and recent form. Fortuna Favente and Dubeyeracingcraic follow closely as horses that have shown potential and are expected to progress. However, as always in racing, outcomes can be unpredictable, but these three seem to have the most going for them in this particular race.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
2.50 Chepstow (14 runners)
Noahs Retreat – Accessibility At
Heart Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

7f

Top 3 Contenders with Pros & Cons:

  1. Secret Bid
    • Pros: Highest total rating, promising debut, lineage related to winners.
    • Cons: Limited race history for comprehensive assessment.
  2. Miguel (IRE)
    • Pros: Impressive start, expected to benefit from the distance increase.
    • Cons: Greenness on debut might indicate a lack of race experience.
  3. Thunderous Love
    • Pros: Good debut, faced challenges but finished well, indicating stamina and determination.
    • Cons: Only one race to judge from, and might face competition from more seasoned horses.

Summary:

Based on ratings and recent performances, Secret Bid appears as the top contender, closely followed by Miguel (IRE) due to its encouraging start and potentially beneficial distance increase. Thunderous Love completes the top three, showing promise in its debut and potential to overcome in-race challenges. While Secret Bid leads in ratings, Miguel and Thunderous Love might give a close competition based on their recent form and potential for improvement.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
3.25 Chepstow (7 runners)
Days Recruitment Supports Noahs
Retreat Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f 

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Mexicali Rose
    • Pros: High total rating, consistent performance, and the last race suggests potential for better positioning.
    • Cons: Was unsuited by an emphasis on speed in the previous race; however, this could also be viewed as a pro for today’s race.
  2. Concon Candy (IRE)
    • Pros: Showed improvement in her last race, strong LR and horse rating.
    • Cons: Reliance on cheekpieces to boost performance.
  3. From Beyond
    • Pros: Consistent past performance and high rating, with an attempt to find better form via cheekpieces.
    • Cons: Disappointing performance after the wind op and recent switch in headgear.

Summary

Mexicali Rose appears to be the strongest contender with potential untapped performance. Concon Candy (IRE) and From Beyond follow closely, with the former showing recent improvement and the latter undergoing changes in hopes of finding better form.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
3.35 Ripon (6 runners)
British Stallion Studs EBF Ripon
Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy Stakes (Listed)

6f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Task Force
    • Pros: High overall rating, strong pedigree, and showed promise in its maiden race.
    • Cons: Limited data due to only one known race; can be unpredictable.
  2. Seven Questions (IRE)
    • Pros: Consistent performer, three straight wins, and appears to be in form.
    • Cons: Faces stiffer competition here; performance under pressure is yet to be tested.
  3. Asadna (IRE)
    • Pros: Remarkable debut and the highest last race rating.
    • Cons: Recent performance hasn’t matched initial promise; form is questionable.

Summary

Task Force, showcasing an impeccable pedigree and promising debut, leads the pack as the top contender. Seven Questions (IRE), with consistent wins, is another horse to watch, while Asadna (IRE), despite a stellar debut, needs to recapture its initial form to challenge the frontrunners.

3.40 Epsom (11 runners)
Betfred Nifty 50 Amateurs Derby
Handicap (Gentleman Amateur Jockeys)

1m4f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Citizen General (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent victory, strong ratings, market confidence.
    • Cons: Turned out quickly which might affect performance.
  2. Premiere Ligne (FR)
    • Pros: Consistent performance, potential improvement with cheekpieces.
    • Cons: Slightly less market confidence than the top pick.
  3. Captain Haddock (IRE)
    • Pros: Past winner of this race, performed well recently, advantage with weight.
    • Cons: Last year’s performance was less ideal, indicating potential inconsistency.

Summary: Citizen General (IRE) appears to be the leading contender, having both strong ratings and recent impressive performances. Premiere Ligne (FR) is a close second with consistent performances and potential for improvement. Captain Haddock (IRE) is a notable mention due to his previous victory in this race and advantageous weight, making him a solid third choice.

3.45 Southwell (11 runners)
British EBF Future Stayers Novice
Stakes (GBB Race)

7f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Superposition
    • Pros: High rating, deemed promising from its debut, could improve in the next race.
    • Cons: Only one race history might mean unpredictable performance.
  2. Spaceport (IRE)
    • Pros: Strong rating, finished second in its debut, potential for improvement.
    • Cons: Limited race history.
  3. Roman Secret (IRE)
    • Pros: Has two races under its belt, indicating more experience. Performed decently in both outings.
    • Cons: Needs a more challenging race, which means it might find competition tough if not given the right conditions.

Summary:

Superposition and Spaceport (IRE) appear to be the strongest contenders due to their high ratings and promising previous performances. Roman Secret (IRE) also shows potential and has the advantage of more race experience. While Superposition and Spaceport (IRE) are on the rise and show potential for improvement, Roman Secret (IRE) needs the right conditions to shine.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
4.10 Ripon (8 runners)
Ripon Rowels Handicap
1m

Top 3 Contenders with Pros & Cons:

  1. Kathab (IRE)
    • Pros: Leading in the ratings, recent win, on an upward trajectory, C&D winner.
    • Cons: Pressure to maintain winning form and complete a hat-trick can sometimes affect performance.
  2. Isla Kai (IRE)
    • Pros: C&D winner, consistent recent form, performed well in the last race.
    • Cons: Not as dominant in ratings as Kathab.
  3. Another Batt (IRE)
    • Pros: Consistent recent performance, C&D winner, chasing a hat-trick.
    • Cons: Recent win was on heavy ground which might have suited the horse’s stamina, conditions might be different here.

Summary:

Kathab (IRE) stands out as the strongest contender due to its leading ratings and recent form. Both Isla Kai (IRE) and Another Batt (IRE) also offer strong credentials, especially given their successes at this course and distance. These three horses appear to be the frontrunners for the race, with Kathab holding a slight edge.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
4.50 Epsom (10 runners)
Worshipful Company Of Loriners Handicap
1m½f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Bowland Park
    • Pros: Highest data score, C&D winner, consistent recent form.
    • Cons: Hasn’t won recently, even if the performance has been consistent.
  2. English Spirit
    • Pros: Strong recent form, backed by a winning yard, and has Oisin Murphy as the jockey.
    • Cons: Last win was not on a turf track, which might suggest slightly better performance on AW surfaces.
  3. Bobby Dassler (IRE)
    • Pros: Win at Nottingham, good performance at this C&D, and has Hollie Doyle riding.
    • Cons: May not perform as well in very testing ground conditions.

Summary Bowland Park appears to be the strongest contender, with English Spirit and Bobby Dassler (IRE) closely following. Bowland Park’s consistent form, course familiarity, and high total score make it a strong candidate, while English Spirit’s recent form and backing from a winning yard boosts its chances. Bobby Dassler (IRE) also stands out, especially with Hollie Doyle as the jockey.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
5.05 Ballinrobe (9 runners)
Hollymount Nursing Home Handicap Hurdle
2m2f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Samui
    • Pros: Highest total score, strong jockey and trainer ratings, recent good form.
    • Cons: Making handicap hurdle debut which could introduce unpredictability.
  2. Charlie Luciano (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent win and good performance, making handicap hurdle debut which could offer potential.
    • Cons: Less strong in terms of total score compared to Samui.
  3. Jay Jay Zee (IRE)
    • Pros: Third-highest total score, lightly-raced, potential for improvement.
    • Cons: Below form in the last race, cheekpieces on for the first time which could alter performance unpredictably.

Summary: Samui appears to be the strongest contender with high ratings and recent good form. Charlie Luciano has also shown good recent performances, making him a notable competitor. Jay Jay Zee, though a bit unpredictable, still holds potential, especially coming from a leading stable.

Mon 28th Aug 2023
5.20 Epsom (9 runners)
Betfred Play Freds 5 Million Handicap
7f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Capital Guarantee (IRE)
    • Pros: High total rating, in-form with two consecutive wins, booked a top jockey in Oisin Murphy.
    • Cons: Still appeared raw in the last race, though managed to win.
  2. Desert Falcon (IRE)
    • Pros: Progressive form, cheekpieces might enhance performance, decent total rating.
    • Cons: Needs to apply himself better based on previous performance notes.
  3. Restrict (USA)
    • Pros: Decent total rating, past wins indicate potential, might improve with the wind op.
    • Cons: First time on turf, has been off for a while, and recent performance isn’t very clear.

Summary

Capital Guarantee (IRE) is the standout contender with impressive ratings and the addition of a top jockey. Desert Falcon (IRE) shows potential, especially with the addition of cheekpieces. Restrict (USA), while having a decent rating, has some variables like a recent break and a switch to turf, which might affect his performance.

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