TimeWise Chronicles

My pick of Tuesday’s racing (In race-time order).

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Tue 29th Aug 2023
2.30 Newbury (12 runners)
Play The BetVictor Predictor Nursery
7f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Loaded Quiver
    • Pros: Leading in total score, recent winning attitude, improving, and addition of cheekpieces.
    • Cons: Still not the finished product, which means inconsistency can occur.
  2. This Time Maybe
    • Pros: Recently performed well, has a high total score, and benefits from experience.
    • Cons: Has a tendency to hang to the left, which could affect performance.
  3. American Tale
    • Pros: Improved recent form, potential for further improvement, and a recent winner.
    • Cons: Fewer data points in the recent races column might mean less experience compared to others.

Summary:

Based on data and notes, ‘Loaded Quiver’ stands out as a strong contender due to its recent form and overall high score. ‘This Time Maybe’, although with a slight drawback, is also a favorite based on its performance and total points. ‘American Tale’ is an improving horse with potential. The race seems to be competitive, and while these three are the top picks, the final outcome depends on many dynamic factors on the race day.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
3.05 Newbury (13 runners)
Bet In Play On Racing At BetVictor Handicap
7f 

Top 3 Contenders with Pros & Cons:

  1. Captain Cuddles (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent form looks strong, and has Ryan Moore as jockey, which is a significant advantage. High total in data points also supports his chances.
    • Cons: Might face strong competition, as this seems a competitive race.
  2. Restrict (USA)
    • Pros: Tops the data and has won before on a similar distance. Gelding operation might bring improvement.
    • Cons: Yet to prove himself on turf, as all his previous victories were on AW.
  3. Flying Spirit
    • Pros: Has shown consistent form and improvement on turf. Recent wins and places add to his credentials.
    • Cons: Faces stiff competition and might need to show more to claim the top spot.

Summary: In simple terms, Captain Cuddles, with Ryan Moore on board, is a strong contender. Restrict is an interesting choice because of its top data points and recent gelding, but its performance on turf is yet untested. Flying Spirit is in good turf form and is a solid contender. The race seems competitive, and while these three stand out based on the data and notes, racing can be unpredictable, and anything can happen on the day.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
3.40 Newbury (10 runners)
Outdoor Digital Productions Handicap (Str)
1m

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Island Bandit (IRE):
    • Pros: High total rating, good recent form, won recently at a similar distance.
    • Cons: Might have benefited from the run of the race last time out and is now under a penalty.
  2. Classic:
    • Pros: High total score, strong market confidence as the favorite, and has been performing consistently.
    • Cons: Had a disappointing show at Group 3 level indicating potential limitations in ability.
  3. Metabolt:
    • Pros: Consistent performer, showed recent form, and has a top jockey on board.
    • Cons: Failed to continue winning streak at Galway which could indicate inconsistency.

Summary Based on the data and race notes, Island Bandit, Classic, and Metabolt emerge as the top contenders for this race. Island Bandit has shown good recent form, Classic is a favorite with consistent performances, and Metabolt is a reliable horse with a top jockey. However, racing outcomes can be unpredictable, so while these three seem the most promising based on the provided information, outcomes on the race day can vary.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
4.30 Ripon (12 runners)
Racing Again Next Tuesday 5th September Handicap
1m

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Cosmos Raj
    • Pros: Highest cumulative rating, recent respectable performance, and has a handy draw.
    • Cons: Last win was a while ago, and a lot may depend on race dynamics.
  2. Tobetso (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent good performance, high last race rating, and is relatively unexposed.
    • Cons: New to the track, and may face strong competition.
  3. Saisons D’or (IRE)
    • Pros: Consistently in the frame in recent races and has performed well on this course.
    • Cons: Hasn’t clinched a win in the latest races, suggesting a possible lack of a finishing kick.

Summary: Cosmos Raj, with the highest overall rating and a handy draw, stands out as a strong contender. Tobetso (IRE) is notable due to its recent impressive performance and being unexposed, while Saisons D’or (IRE) is consistently near the top, especially on this course. While the data and notes provide a solid overview, actual race dynamics and unforeseen events can always affect the outcome.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
4.50 Newbury (12 runners)
Always Bet Responsibly At BetVictor Handicap
1m2f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Forest Demon (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent win at Newmarket, high total score, and impressive last run score.
    • Cons: Slight increase in handicap which can affect its performance.
  2. Khinjani
    • Pros: Winner at Haydock, third-highest total score, and strong last run.
    • Cons: Has a relatively lower jockey and trainer score compared to Forest Demon.
  3. Gold Aura
    • Pros: Consistent recent form, suitable for this trip, and a competitive handicap.
    • Cons: Hasn’t clinched a win recently, indicating she might place but not necessarily win.

Summary: Based on data and notes, Forest Demon (IRE) appears to be the strongest contender with a recent win and impressive stats. Khinjani follows closely and has shown consistency. Gold Aura, though not the highest scorer, shows potential for this trip. It would be wise to consider these horses for any potential wagers.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
5.05 Bellewstown (15 runners)
Gibneys Malahide Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)
1m

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Skontonovski
    • Pros: Highest total rating, consistent recent form, and the yard is performing well.
    • Cons: Had a race just 5 days ago which might impact stamina and freshness.
  2. Rampage (IRE)
    • Pros: Strong recent performances and has won at a prominent track like Leopardstown. The introduction of a visor might bring improvement.
    • Cons: How the horse will adjust to the new visor is uncertain.
  3. What Adaay
    • Pros: Proven performance at this course and consistent form at the track.
    • Cons: Hasn’t raced for 54 days which might either mean it’s well-rested or a bit rusty.

Summary Based on the data and notes, Skontonovski seems to be the strongest contender due to its high rating and recent form. Rampage (IRE) follows closely, especially with the potential benefit from the visor. What Adaay cannot be ruled out given its consistent performance at this track. However, Skontonovski’s recent race could be a double-edged sword, impacting its freshness for this race.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
5.15 Worcester (6 runners)
Worthingtons Pre-Training Handicap Chase
2m7f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Reserve Tank (IRE)
    • Pros: Represents an in-form yard, took advantage of a lowered mark for a recent win, and still has room for improvement.
    • Cons: Historically inconsistent.
  2. Mr Mafia (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent winner after a break, has a history of consistent performance.
    • Cons: Needs to perform even better to win this time.
  3. Carlo Du Berlais (IRE)
    • Pros: Improved significantly in chasing, won 2 out of the recent 3 races, and there’s potential for more.
    • Cons: Faces stiffer competition here and has a 5 lb increase to consider.

Summary:

Based on both data and notes, Reserve Tank (IRE) appears to be in a strong position, coming from an in-form yard and has shown recent successes. Mr Mafia (IRE), a veteran with a recent win, will need to up his game, while Carlo Du Berlais (IRE), having shown significant improvement recently, could still have more to offer. It should be an interesting race with these three contenders likely to be at the forefront.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
5.45 Worcester (7 runners)
Dog House Pizzeria Novices Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. The Derry Girl (IRE)
    • Pros: Highest total score, recent win over the course & distance, good backing from connections.
    • Cons: Carrying a penalty which could affect performance.
  2. Winterwatch (GER)
    • Pros: Bookmakers’ favorite, consistent runner-up finishes over hurdles.
    • Cons: Poor performance in the last flat race.
  3. Gaius
    • Pros: Previous win at the course & distance, second-highest total score.
    • Cons: Recent underperformance on the last outing.

Summary: The Derry Girl stands out as a top contender due to her recent win and strong backing, but she’s facing a penalty which could hinder her performance. Winterwatch, though not leading in scores, is the bookmakers’ favorite and has consistent runner-up finishes over hurdles. Gaius is a wildcard with a blend of past success and a recent dip in form. These three are the main horses to watch in the race.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
6.20 Worcester (10 runners)
Ann Hitchings Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)
2m4f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Sea The Clouds (IRE)
    • Pros: Strong recent performance over C&D, previous hurdle winner.
    • Cons: Carries the burden of expectation, might face stiff competition.
  2. Oslo
    • Pros: Previous wins and showed form in recent race after a long absence.
    • Cons: Might be rusty, given the 14-month break before his recent return.
  3. Izayte (FR)
    • Pros: Consistent recent form in handicaps.
    • Cons: The increased trip could be a concern for stamina.

Summary

Sea The Clouds (IRE), with its recent C&D performance, appears to be the market favorite and a top contender. Oslo, coming off a long break, is expected to compete keenly based on past achievements. Izayte (FR) has been performing well recently, and if the horse handles the longer distance, he’s expected to be in the mix.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
7.05 Musselburgh (7 runners)
Thank You Peter Jackson Handicap
1m1f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Asgards Captain (IRE)
    • Pros: Leading in total score, performed well recently, and the increase in distance could be a plus.
    • Cons: Odds might decrease further due to public backing.
  2. Metric
    • Pros: Recently won a race, high total score, and still considered to have potential.
    • Cons: Carrying a penalty which could impact performance.
  3. Future Times (FR)
    • Pros: Respectable recent performance and the decrease in trip could be beneficial.
    • Cons: Has had many chances and hasn’t capitalized.

Summary: Based on the data and the race notes, Asgards Captain (IRE) stands out as a top contender due to consistent past performances and the belief that a longer trip would be favorable. Metric, a recent winner, is also a horse to watch, although it has the challenge of a penalty. Future Times (FR), although not a consistent winner, offers value with its recent commendable performance and might benefit from the adjusted trip.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
7.15 Bellewstown (12 runners)
Gibneys Gormanston Fillies Maiden
1m4f 

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons

  1. Erato (IRE)
    • Pros: Highest data ratings, performed decently on debut and can likely improve with the addition of blinkers.
    • Cons: Started slowly on its debut.
  2. Delicate Girl (IRE)
    • Pros: Strong recent form, having finished second in its last race. Likely has more to offer.
    • Cons: Though its recent form is strong, the competition is stiff, and other contenders might have improved performances.
  3. Eziva (IRE)
    • Pros: Yard in good form, decent ratings, and visored which could indicate better focus this time. Had met trouble in the last race but still finished decently.
    • Cons: Hasn’t showcased a winning form yet, and there are others with better recent results.

Summary

Based on data metrics and race notes, Erato (IRE), Delicate Girl (IRE), and Eziva (IRE) stand out as the top contenders for the upcoming race at Bellewstown. While Erato boasts the highest ratings, Delicate Girl’s recent second-place finish makes it a strong competitor. Meanwhile, Eziva has potential, having met trouble in its last race but still finishing well. It will be interesting to see how these contenders perform in the race.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
7.35 Musselburgh (9 runners)
100% Racing TV Profits Back To Racing Handicap
7f

Top 3 Contenders with pros & cons:

  1. Wreck It Ryley (IRE)
    • Pros: Recent win, top of the data analysis list, and only 2 lb up.
    • Cons: Will other competitors have studied his recent win and adjusted strategies?
  2. Cuban Rock
    • Pros: Course winner, which indicates a level of comfort and adaptability to the track. Likely to perform better under stronger handling.
    • Cons: The last performance was not optimal; will he be able to overturn that?
  3. Rwenearlytheredad
    • Pros: Consistent recent performance as per data. The sharper track might suit him more.
    • Cons: Lost to Wreck It Ryley in the last race, so will need to find a way to overcome that challenge.

Summary:

Wreck It Ryley (IRE) looks to be in strong form after a recent win and tops our data analysis, making him a prime contender. Cuban Rock, though faltered in the last outing, is a course winner, suggesting he’s familiar with the track and could bounce back. Rwenearlytheredad, consistent in his performance, may find this track more suitable. While these three seem to stand out based on the data and notes, horse racing is unpredictable, and outcomes can be influenced by various external factors.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
7.45 Bellewstown (13 runners)
Ploughman Bar & Grill (Q.R.) Handicap
2m1f

Top 3 Contenders with Pros & Cons

  1. Barnacullia (IRE)
    • Pros: High rating, favorable odds, recently secured a career-best win, and only 2 lbs heavier here.
    • Cons: Short recovery time since the last race, only 12 days ago.
  2. Herculaneum (IRE)
    • Pros: Consistently good form, recent solid performance at Galway.
    • Cons: Stepping up in trip significantly, which can be an uncertainty.
  3. Walking On Glass (IRE)
    • Pros: Reasonable rating, good recent form, and odds suggest value.
    • Cons: Stepping up in trip, which may or may not suit the horse.

Summary Barnacullia (IRE) appears to be in the best form coming into this race and is the highest-rated horse, suggesting he’s a strong contender. Herculaneum (IRE) has shown consistent form and is one to watch, especially given his recent solid performance. Walking On Glass (IRE) can’t be discounted either, especially given the value on offer, but the step up in trip remains a question mark.

Tue 29th Aug 2023
7.55 Worcester (12 runners)
Richard Hitchings Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m7f

Top 3 Contenders with Pros & Cons

  1. Judge Earle (IRE)
    • Pros: Strong recent performance, has won multiple times over fences, and the course might suit.
    • Cons: Transition from fences to hurdles can be unpredictable.
  2. Blue Sans (IRE)
    • Pros: On a winning streak, has a consistent performance, and the jockey seems to get the best out of her.
    • Cons: This race might be tougher than its previous races.
  3. Woodie Flash (IRE)
    • Pros: Has won on this course and distance recently, suggesting he might be suited for the track.
    • Cons: The horse is moving to handicap racing, which might be more challenging.

Summary: “Judge Earle” has shown consistent and promising performance, making it a solid contender for the race. “Blue Sans” is on a winning run and might keep the momentum going, though this race could be more challenging. “Woodie Flash” won recently on this course but is facing a potentially tough mark in handicap racing.

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