Kempton 1-Mile: Who to Back and Who to Avoid

At Kempton over a mile, running style can make or break a horse’s chances. Analyzing the last 400 races gives us a clear idea of what works—and what doesn’t.

Back the Front-Runners

Horses that take the lead early have a real edge, boasting a 16.16% strike rate—the best of all running styles. Kempton’s all-weather track rewards those who grab control and maintain momentum, making front-runners your go-to choice. They consistently put themselves in the best position to win.

Avoid Held-Up Horses

At the other end of the spectrum, held-up runners struggle. Despite being the most common running style, their strike rate is a poor 6.14%, with punters taking heavy losses. Traffic issues and the track’s layout work against late chargers here, so tread carefully with these types.

Prominent and Mid-Division: Mixed Bag

Prominent runners fare decently with an 11.8% strike rate but aren’t as reliable as front-runners. Mid-division horses fall further behind, with only 9.09% managing to win. Both are safer bets than hold-ups, but they lack the punch of those leading the pack.

Poor Starters: No Chance

Horses that blow the start rarely recover, winning just 4.58% of the time. If you see a runner with a history of slow breaks, it’s best to steer clear.

The Takeaway

Stick with early pace. Front-runners dominate, while prominent types are a solid back-up. Avoid held-up horses unless there’s a compelling reason, and don’t even consider poor starters. At Kempton tonight, the race is likely to be won in the first few furlongs.

The front running style of HOLLOWAY BOY makes him interesting here if he takes to the All Weather 🏇🤔