Race analysis

Fri 24th Jan 2025
6.45 Southwell (12 runners)
Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap
6f

Below is an at-a-glance guide to each runner in the 6:45 Southwell (Fri 24th Jan 2025). I’ve included a brief discussion of their recent form, any relevant course/distance clues, and general positives/negatives. Odds are as shown on the race card. As always, check the market near the off for any significant moves and monitor any late-breaking trainer/jockey comments.

1. Many A Star (IRE)

Trainer: J A Osborne | Jockey: William Carver (claims 3)
Form: 7/3/8/3/1/3
Official Rating (OR): 81 | Odds: 17/2

Positives: A course-and-distance (CD) winner in the past; consistent enough of late (won off 78 in October). Ran respectably in a Class 4 at Kempton two starts back and showed he’s still competitive.
Concerns: Now 8 years old and near a career-high mark of 81, so does need to find that extra gear.

2. Lucky Man (IRE)

Trainer: Richard Spencer | Jockey: Robert Havlin
Form: 0/9/7/1/8/8/0
OR: 80 | Odds: 18/1

Positives: Has won here over 6f in the past (CD). Capable of popping up in these handicaps (won off 81 last year).
Concerns: Recent form is patchy (well beaten in last two starts). Blinkers back on but needs a revival to figure.

3. Lir Speciale (IRE)

Trainer: S C Williams | Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Form: 4/0/6/4/7/6/5 (last 7)
OR: 79 | Odds: 4/1

Positives: Early favourite or close to it. Often runs well on artificial surfaces and is still relatively lightly raced for a 6yo. A strong jockey booking.
Concerns: Results have been in-and-out since last win (summer turf). Needs to settle better in the early stages.

4. Ormolulu (IRE)

Trainer: Gemma Tutty | Jockey: Warren Fentiman (7)
Form: 3/3/1/6/1/1/9
OR: 79 | Odds: 11/2

Positives: Progressive last autumn, rattling off two wins in quick succession. Has a C&D score. If you forgive her latest “9” (possibly needed a break or didn’t fire that day), she’s on an upward curve.
Concerns: Raised in the weights since those wins; must show she can still be effective off higher marks.

5. Bulldog Drummond

Trainer: Patrick Owens | Jockey: Joanna Mason
Form: 1/0/9/5/7/7/3
OR: 79 | Odds: 33/1

Positives: Lightly raced 4yo who did notch a Class 5 win last summer.
Concerns: Recent form in Class 4/5 handicaps is modest, and he’s stepping back up in class. Needs to prove he’s up to this level on the AW.

6. Mahato

Trainer: W J Haggas | Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Form: 1/4/2/5/6/2/9
OR: 78 | Odds: 8/1

Positives: William Haggas runner with some promising bits of form (won a Newcastle novice last year). Often well supported in the betting; stable is always respected.
Concerns: Hasn’t quite progressed as connections might’ve hoped—last run was only fair (9th). Needs a bounce-back, but the ability is there.

7. Admiral D (IRE)

Trainer: R A Fahey | Jockey: Oisin Orr
Form: 6/0/0/2/7/9/4
OR: 77 | Odds: 15/2

Positives: Capable handicapper at his best; placed over this course in better-grade handicaps. If the pace sets up for him, could run into the frame.
Concerns: In and out form for a while—hard to predict. Although well handicapped on old form, must show more consistency.

8. Filly One (IRE)

Trainer: G R Oldroyd | Jockey: Tom Kiely Marshall (5)
Form: 1/1/6
OR: 77 | Odds: 18/1

Positives: Lightly raced filly who won her first two starts (turf and AW) in the summer. Could still have upside.
Concerns: 6th on her latest run in Class 3 might indicate she wasn’t quite up to it. Needs to resume progress; a bit more of an unknown in Class 4 on the AW.

9. Minnesota Lad (IRE)

Trainer: Ivan Furtado | Jockey: Dale Swift
Form: 9/4/1/0/0/6/2
OR: 76 | Odds: 8/1

Positives: Winner on the AW last autumn (Chelmsford). Placed last time out in a similar race. Ivan Furtado does well at Southwell with sprinters.
Concerns: Overall strike-rate is modest (2/14). Needs a bit of luck from stall 7.

10. Counsel

Trainer: M Appleby | Jockey: Billy Loughnane (claims 3)
Form: 4/2/1/2/4/3/6
OR: 74 | Odds: 22/1

Positives: Representing a trainer with a strong record on the AW. Billy Loughnane is an excellent 3lb claimer. Potential to outrun big odds if bouncing back.
Concerns: Hasn’t shown a great deal in last couple of runs, and 6f might be on the sharp side (horse by Frankel, typically viewed as more of a 7f–1m type).

11. Harry Did

Trainer: Harry Eustace | Jockey: Kaiya Fraser (3)
Form: 5/2/2/0/1/8/7
OR: 73 | Odds: 100/30

Positives: Heads the betting at around 100/30. A lightly raced 4yo with scope to improve on AW. Runs off a feasible mark. Big run expected if he’s come on for that last start.
Concerns: Has to prove he’s consistent enough at Class 4 level. Jockey is still relatively inexperienced, though claiming 3lb helps.

12. Mojomaker (IRE)

Trainer: David Loughnane | Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Form: 2/4/4/0/4/9/3
OR: 73 | Odds: 20/1

Positives: On a workable mark and picks up a top jockey in Kingscote. Has some back-class in sprint handicaps.
Concerns: Mixed displays in 2024; hasn’t been getting close to winning. Needs a proper jolt of improvement to topple better-fancied rivals.

Summary & Shortlist

Likely Favourites:
- Harry Did (No. 11) is around 100/30 and clearly respected if he can step forward again.
- Lir Speciale (No. 3) at 4/1 has the raw ability to figure; has shown glimpses of strong AW form.
Interesting Alternatives:
- Ormolulu (No. 4, 11/2) was on a roll before her last run. If that was just a blip, she could bounce back.
- Mahato (No. 6, 8/1) from William Haggas – rarely a trainer to overlook in Class 4 handicaps, and the horse still has potential despite a couple of lesser runs.
- Many A Star (No. 1, 17/2) is proven over C&D and might still have a bit of life off 81.
Bigger Prices:
- Admiral D (No. 7, 15/2) is capable if on a going day.
- Minnesota Lad (No. 9, 8/1) consistent sprinter for an in-form yard; place claims.

If you’re looking for solid each-way value, Many A Star or Minnesota Lad could go well at mid-range prices. If you trust the form lines of the likely favourite, Harry Did merits respect with further improvement likely. Meanwhile, those wanting a “trainer angle” might side with Mahato (Haggas/Fallon) hoping for a revival.

As ever in a competitive sprint handicap, small margins can decide it. Watch the market for clues (especially on any improvers returning from a short break) and consider the draw/pace setup at Southwell, which sometimes favours prominent runners on the inside.

Tentative Pick: Ormolulu (No. 4) each-way if she’s showing positive signals in the market; she was on a good upward curve before her latest run and might still be ahead of the handicapper.🤞

Below is a concise post-race summary of the 6f Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap at Southwell (Fri 24th Jan 2025), focusing on how the race unfolded and noting any eyecatching performances or hard-luck stories:

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Winner: Many A Star (IRE) — SP 6/1

Trainer: J A Osborne | Jockey: William Carver (3)

In-Running: Settled in mid-division and raced keenly. Switched out to challenge over 1f out, quickened smartly to lead entering the final furlong, kept on strongly.

Comment: Showed a neat turn of foot, proving he still retains plenty of ability as an 8yo. Enjoys a strong gallop to chase and clearly handles Southwell well.

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2nd: Ormolulu (IRE) — SP 9/2 F (½ length behind)

Slowly away and dropped in. Traveled well but found limited room over 1f out. Switched for a run, staying on strongly in the final 100 yards to take 2nd.

Verdict: Unlucky not to break more alertly. Once in the clear, she stayed on nicely, suggesting she remains on a competitive mark.

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3rd: Harry Did — SP 5/1 (short head behind 2nd)

Held up toward the rear, made good headway entering the final furlong. Kept on well but just lost out on 2nd close home.

Verdict: Lightly raced and progressive for connections. Another bold run suggests more to come, particularly on the AW. A step back up to 7f could be interesting.

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4th: Mahato — SP 15/2 (3 lengths behind 3rd)

Broke well and tracked the leader. Hit the front of the chasing group over 2f out, but wandered slightly under pressure, fading late.

Verdict: Threatened to win before flattening out. Remains lightly raced for William Haggas and can be marked up if he learns to settle.

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5th: Counsel — SP 14/1

Quickly into stride, opened up a clear lead mid-race. Headed entering the final furlong and weakened late.

Verdict: Tried to make all and gave backers a real sight. May be suited by an easier 6f (or dropping slightly in class) if employing similar front-running tactics.

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6th: Minnesota Lad (IRE) — SP 13/2

Held up, ridden over 1f out, plugged on without threatening.

Verdict: Never in a position to challenge seriously but didn’t fold. Remains capable in similar Class 4/5 contests.

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Also-Rans

7th: Lir Speciale (IRE) [13/2] – Mid-pack, one-paced when the tempo lifted. Needs to recapture earlier AW form.

8th: Mojomaker (IRE) [16/1] – Mid-division, brief effort 2f out, weakened final furlong. Looked in need of a drop in class or a different trip.

9th: Lucky Man (IRE) [16/1] – In touch, effort 2f out but faded. Blinkers reapplied here; may need further help from the handicapper.

10th: Admiral D (IRE) [14/1] – Slow to find stride, never landed a blow. Possibly one to note if dropped in grade.

11th: Bulldog Drummond [28/1] – Chased leaders but found little from over 1f out. Lightly raced; still learning in Class 4 company.

12th: Filly One (IRE) [18/1] – Prominent early but dropped away; remains lightly raced and may come on from this run.

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Race Replay

Early Pace: Counsel set a strong gallop, going several lengths clear by halfway.

Key Moment: Many A Star quickened sharply around 1f out, gaining the necessary jump on rivals who were still navigating traffic.

Late Movers: Both Ormolulu and Harry Did found their strides inside the final furlong, staying on, but the winner had already stolen first run.

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Going Forward

Many A Star remains effective in these Class 4 handicaps, especially with a well-run 6f. He’s also versatile regarding tactics, though he raced keenly here.

Ormolulu’s luckless passage suggests she’ll continue to be a danger in similar contests, particularly if breaking on terms.

Harry Did is unexposed on the AW and shaping like a horse who has further progression in him.

Time: 1m 13.87s (around standard for 6f at Southwell).
A fair winning performance in a competitive sprint; those finishing in the frame look worth following in upcoming AW events.