2:25 Leopardstown – Handicap Hurdle Analysis

A typically competitive Leopardstown handicap hurdle with plenty of unexposed types, proven course performers, and a mix of chase-to-hurdle switchers. The market has latched onto Meetingofthewaters, but while he’s lightly raced over hurdles and represents the Mullins/Blackmore combination, he’s short enough at 15/8 given the depth of opposition.

There’s a strong chance that Flicker Of Hope (11/1) is being underestimated. A winner of four of his last five, he beat the reopposing Backmersackme in a large-field Navan handicap last time, and while only a short-head separated them, the way he responded when challenged suggests there’s more in the tank. He’s creeping up the weights but remains progressive and should be suited by what looks a well-run race.

Defending champion Perceval Legallois (13/2) makes obvious appeal. He stayed on strongly to win a competitive chase over 24.4f here last time and returns to hurdles off just a 2lb higher mark than last year’s win. His hurdling form before that was solid, and he’s likely to be played late off a strong gallop. With plenty of front-runners in opposition, conditions could be ideal.

The market may also have undervalued Glen Kiln (20/1). He won with a bit in hand at Navan last time (20f), and although this step up to 3m is a question mark, he shapes as though he’ll stay. His mark still looks workable, and he’s an improving type in a race where many rivals have questions to answer.

Good Time Jonny (33/1) might be one for those looking at the longshots. A former Cheltenham Festival winner, his recent form is uninspiring, but he’s well-handicapped and has won at this track before. Tony Martin has landed a few big punts in these handicaps before, and while he needs to show more spark, he’s worth noting in the market.


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Verdict & Betting Angle:

Perceval Legallois (13/2) – Looks well-handicapped and should be staying on strongly.

Flicker Of Hope (11/1) – Market may be underestimating him given his progressive profile.

Glen Kiln (20/1, EW) – Unexposed and capable of outperforming market expectations.

Good Time Jonny (33/1, EW) – Could be a plot job if money arrives late.


With a strong pace likely, stamina and well-handicapped runners with proven big-field form should be key. I’d be looking to play Flicker Of Hope and Perceval Legallois, with Glen Kiln as a lively outsider at a price.