2:55 Leopardstown – Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) – Analysis & Value Picks

A small but select field lines up for this year’s Goffs Irish Arkle, and while the market has firmly latched onto Majborough as the standout, there are a couple of angles that might just provide better value.


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Market Overview & The Short-Priced Favourite

Majborough (4/6) is priced as if defeat is almost out of the question, and while he is undoubtedly an exciting prospect, it’s worth asking whether his price accurately reflects his chances.

He won the Triumph Hurdle in dominant fashion last season and made a stylish chase debut at Fairyhouse. The bare form of that win is hard to assess, but what stands out is his fluent jumping and ability to dictate matters. However, he was a 5yo hurdler last season, and history suggests that horses transitioning from juvenile hurdles to open Grade 1 novice company often find it tough against older, more battle-hardened rivals at this stage of the season.

Since 2010, only one 5-year-old has won this race, and even that came in a weak renewal. Given that trend, and the strength of opposition he faces, I wouldn’t be rushing to take odds-on.


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Main Danger: Ile Atlantique (3/1)

Stablemate Ile Atlantique could be underestimated. He was a smart novice hurdler last season but looks an even better chaser, progressing rapidly with each start. His latest Grade 2 win at Naas, beating Firefox by 5 lengths, was a serious performance – he jumped well, travelled smoothly, and found plenty under pressure.

The key here is that he brings proven chase form at a high level, something that Majborough still lacks. He also boasts plenty of stamina, an attribute that has often been crucial in this race, where the final furlong can become a real test. If the pace is strong, his ability to stay further than 2m1f could be a big advantage.

At 3/1, his chance is at least as good as Majborough’s, yet he is nearly three times the price.


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The Market Overlooked One: Touch Me Not (11/1)

If there is one at double-figure odds who could hit the frame, it’s Touch Me Not. He ran a stormer in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown, finishing second to JPR One. That race has a solid record of producing top-class chasers, and his performance there suggests he’s still improving.

What really stands out is his jumping technique. While some in here, including the favourite, are still relatively untested over fences, Touch Me Not has already proven he can handle a fast-run race at Grade 1 level.

The other key angle is pace. If this turns into a strong test up front, there’s a chance that Touch Me Not, who tends to sit just behind the leaders, could pick up the pieces late on. At 11/1, he looks an each-way bet to nothing.


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Market Missed: Is Firefox Worth a Lay?

Firefox is a talented horse, but he was beaten fair and square by Ile Atlantique last time and has no obvious reason to reverse the form. At 10/1, he looks underpriced compared to Touch Me Not, who arguably has stronger chase form in the book.

Laying Firefox for a place might be a play, as he could be vulnerable if this turns into a stamina test.


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Final Betting Strategy

✅ Back Ile Atlantique (3/1, Win Bet) – Proven over fences, looks every bit as good as Majborough but at a far bigger price.
✅ Back Touch Me Not (11/1, Each-Way Bet) – Solid jumping, proven at a high level, and could be the one to pick up the pieces late.
❌ Lay Firefox for a place – Hasn’t quite convinced over fences and might struggle in the closing stages.

This is shaping up to be a more competitive race than the market suggests, and with Majborough potentially vulnerable at the prices, there’s value to be had in opposing him with more experienced chasers.