Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3:30 Leopardstown) – Market Misses & Strong Contenders

Galopin Des Champs (8/15) is the obvious class act, and while he’s hard to oppose, the market appears to have priced this as a foregone conclusion. However, in a strongly-run Grade 1 over 3m 70y on potentially testing ground, there could be value lurking elsewhere—particularly in the without the favourite or place markets.

Strongest Alternative – Fact To File (7/2)

The John Durkan winner had Galopin Des Champs behind him on seasonal reappearance, but was subsequently outstayed when 7½ lengths adrift in the Savills Chase. That was only his sixth chase start, so there’s scope for improvement, especially if the race develops into a tactical affair. If he can dictate or sit closer to the pace, he might at least keep the favourite honest.

Market Overlooked Runner – Inothewayurthinkin (20/1)

The market is likely underestimating Inothewayurthinkin. He was fifth in the Savills Chase, beaten 15¼ lengths, but that race didn’t play to his strengths. His best form has come on softer ground over extreme trips, and if Leopardstown rides deeper than expected, he could stay on through beaten horses. The Cromwell-trained seven-year-old is still improving, and while winning is a stretch, he’s a serious each-way player at a big price.

Potential Weakness in the Market – Embassy Gardens (12/1)

Embassy Gardens put up a career-best performance at Tramore, but that was on heavy ground in a small field, which can flatter horses. This is a major step up in class, and his price looks more reflective of trainer/jockey confidence than substance. Given that he was pulled up on his previous start, he’s one to oppose in match bets or place markets.


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Final Thoughts

Fact To File is the most likely to chase home the favourite, but 7/2 feels about right.

Inothewayurthinkin is the overlooked value play, especially if the ground softens. A without the favourite or place bet could be a shrewd move.

Embassy Gardens looks underpriced and could struggle in this deeper contest.


The race revolves around Galopin Des Champs, but there’s always an edge to be found beyond the obvious.