14:50 Musselburgh – Value Play in Competitive Handicap Chase.

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With a competitive renewal of the Scottish Champion Chase Handicap Chase, there are strong cases to be made for several at the head of the market, but there’s value to be found beyond the obvious contenders.

Market Leaders & Their Claims

The Kalooki Kid (5/2) heads the market after an impressive Doncaster win over 19f, quickening well and hitting the line strongly. The 7lb rise is manageable, and with course form and a progressive profile, he’s a worthy favourite. However, this is a deeper race and while he rates a big player, there’s better value elsewhere.

Marble Sands (4/1) has been consistent in strong handicaps, chasing home the improving Springwell Bay at Cheltenham last time. He has winning form at the track and should run well again, but this is his third hard race in quick succession, and at his price, there are more interesting options.

The Value Play – Fidelio Vallis (7/1)

FIDELIO VALLIS may have been underestimated by the market at 7/1. A C&D winner last January, he was well backed for his return at Doncaster in December but shaped as if the run was needed. That race came under an inexperienced amateur rider, and today he’s reunited with Alice Stevens, who has ridden him to success before.

The first-time cheekpieces could also bring improvement, and given that he had the beating of Corrigeen Rock over this trip last year, there’s reason to believe he retains the ability to be competitive off 140. He should be much fitter for that recent run, and the return to a track where he’s won before makes him interesting at the prices.

Dark Horse – Minella Drama (14/1)

MINELLA DRAMA has a bit of a boom-or-bust profile, but at 14/1, he’s too big a price considering his form at this venue. His Old Roan Chase win at Aintree in October showed he retains plenty of ability, and he’s 1-1 over C&D. He was disappointing in the Peterborough Chase last time, but this drop in class, back at a track where he’s won, could spark a revival.

With Donald McCain’s Musselburgh record (22% strike rate) and a return to conditions he enjoys, he should be much shorter than 14/1 and could reward each-way backers.

How The Race Will Be Run

Saint Segal is likely to make the running after relishing front-running tactics at Newbury, and a good gallop looks assured with Minella Drama and Corrigeen Rock also likely to race prominently. This should set up well for closers like Marble Sands and Fidelio Vallis, while The Kalooki Kid will need to prove he can quicken off a strong pace.


Conclusion & Recommended Bets

  • Win Bet – Fidelio Vallis (7/1) – C&D winner, cheekpieces added, well-handicapped.
  • Each-Way Play – Minella Drama (14/1) – Previous C&D winner, too big a price for class.

This looks a race where the market may have overlooked previous C&D form, and both Fidelio Vallis and Minella Drama are too big given their profiles. The Kalooki Kid has obvious claims, but 7/1 and 14/1 offer much better value in a deep contest.

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