With a strong pace forecast, this race is likely to suit those who can settle off the speed and finish strongly, rather than those reliant on dominating from the front. Afadil is a worthy favourite given his course record and the form of the Paul Nicholls yard, but at the prices, there are better options that the market may be underestimating.

Value Plays

MAGHLAAK (9/1) – Looks well suited to race setup

With a strong pace expected, the way Maghlaak finishes his races could be a key asset here. A highly rated flat performer (peaked at 93), he took well to hurdles when winning impressively at Catterick, before being turned over at Ayr on heavy ground in a race that may have come too soon (just 5 days later).

The step back to a more galloping track and better ground could see him return to form, and the 10lb claim from James Robottom is a significant advantage. Given that the pace scenario should suit hold-up horses, Maghlaak looks overpriced at around 9/1 and may trade lower in running.

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BALHAMBAR (5/1) – Consistent and progressive

A horse with a solid recent record in strong handicaps, Balhambar has been knocking on the door and was an eye-catching second at Southwell last time, staying on well in a race where he was possibly positioned too far back. He was also third in a hot Cheltenham handicap in November, which has worked out well.

The return of cheekpieces (worn for previous wins) could be a significant factor in getting a sharper performance. With a strong pace to aim at and proven ability to perform in deep handicaps, he looks likely to be involved.