Leopardstown, 14:10, Sunday 2nd February 2025

The Ladbrokes Dublin Chase brings together some of the top two-milers, but there’s a feeling the market may be underestimating a few key dynamics, particularly with the strong pace forecasted and some recent trends that could shake up the betting landscape.

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EL FABIOLO – More Value Than Meets the Eye?

At 4/1, El Fabiolo looks to be slipping under the radar. After an impressive six-race winning streak over fences, including a dominant display in this very contest last year, the market seems overly focused on his last two defeats. His jumping was indeed an issue at Cheltenham, but that heavy ground and the pressure of a festival crowd can find flaws in any horse. His second to Jonbon at Sandown wasn’t a disgrace either, with the quicker ground potentially blunting his edge.

Back on more favourable conditions and returning to Leopardstown—where he’s shown his class—this could be the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back. The key factor is the strong pace forecast, which should allow him to settle mid-pack and pounce late. Given his high cruising speed and ability to quicken off a solid tempo, El Fabiolo offers real value in a race that may unfold perfectly for him.

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SOLNESS – A Front-Running Wildcard at 17/2

The market seems to be underestimating Solness after his surprise win in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase last time. While some may dismiss that performance as a fluke, there’s more to it. Solness dictated the pace from the front and had the field in trouble early, showcasing his ability to maintain a strong gallop under pressure.

With Quilixios and Senecia likely to be prominent, there’s a risk of a speed duel, but if Solness can establish control early, his stamina (effective up to 21f) could prove decisive. Joseph O’Brien knows how to place his horses smartly, and at 17/2, he’s massively overpriced for a horse coming off a Grade 1 win at this track.

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MARINE NATIONALE – The Forgotten Contender at 6/1

Another that’s being overlooked is Marine Nationale, available at 6/1. While all eyes are on the Mullins battalion, Marine Nationale quietly brings a compelling case. Unbeaten over hurdles, including a dominant win in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, his transition to fences has been smooth, with consistent performances against quality opposition.

His recent third to Solness might seem underwhelming, but he was finishing strongly that day, and the race shape didn’t suit. A stronger pace here could see him to better effect, especially if the leaders overcook it upfront. Barry Connell’s charge looks to be improving with each run, and there’s a sense that his ceiling over fences hasn’t been reached.

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Potential Market Flaws

• Gaelic Warrior is undoubtedly talented but trades short at 11/10 despite clear signs he’s not at his best at Leopardstown. His tendency to jump right could be costly here, and his last run suggested vulnerabilities in how he handles this track. His price reflects potential rather than guaranteed performance.
• El Fabiolo’s defeats have spooked the market, but the context of those losses—jumping errors in unique circumstances—suggests he’s not as vulnerable as the odds imply.
• Solness and Marine Nationale are both overlooked based on superficial readings of their form, but deeper analysis suggests they’re positioned to take advantage if the race doesn’t play out as expected.

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Final Thoughts: Where’s the Smart Money?

• El Fabiolo at 4/1 is the standout value. A class act when things click, and this setup suits him.
• Marine Nationale at 6/1 offers a solid each-way angle, especially with his progressive profile.
• Solness at 17/2 is the wildcard; if the race unfolds in his favour, he could cause another upset.

In a race where the market seems heavily weighted towards the Mullins hotpot, there’s value lurking beneath the surface for those willing to look beyond the obvious.