This Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown looks like another potential Mullins masterclass, with three of his leading novices lining up. The market is firmly behind Ballyburn at short odds, and while his form and profile justify favouritism, there are subtle dynamics at play here that suggest there’s value elsewhere.

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Ballyburn (5/6) – The Obvious but Overbet?

There’s no denying Ballyburn’s class—he’s a top-tier novice who stays well, jumps efficiently, and thrives on softer ground. His second to Sir Gino over a shorter trip at Kempton last time shouldn’t be held against him; the drop in distance didn’t suit, and he’s back at an optimal trip today. However, the market might be overreacting to his overall profile, pushing his price too short in a field stacked with improving chasers.

While Ballyburn’s prominent running style fits well with Leopardstown’s pace bias, his price leaves little room for error. He’s still relatively untested over fences at this level, and in a race where small mistakes could be costly, backing odds-on in a novice chase feels risky.

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Impaire Et Passe (11/4) – Under the Radar for a Mullins Star?

The market seems to be undervaluing Impaire Et Passe, possibly due to Ballyburn’s dominant profile overshadowing him. This horse has done very little wrong, winning the Faugheen Novices’ Chase at Limerick with plenty in hand. His hurdling form—winning the Aintree Hurdle and Select Hurdle—marks him out as a horse of real class, and his transition to fences has been smooth.

Importantly, Impaire Et Passe travels strongly and finishes well, which will be crucial if the pace heats up more than forecasted. With Ballyburn expected to attract heavy market attention, Impaire Et Passe represents the best value among the Mullins runners, especially if he drifts slightly before the off.

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Champ Kiely (6/1) – The Forgotten Mullins Runner?

If we’re following the trend of Mullins dominance in this race (winning five of the last six renewals), Champ Kiely looks like the forgotten horse in the market. His chasing debut win after a lengthy absence was eye-catching, pulling clear with ease at Fairyhouse.

His form over hurdles isn’t far behind his more celebrated stablemates, with a Grade 1 win at Naas and a solid third in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. There’s every chance he’s improved for the switch to fences, and the market might be underestimating his potential to mix it with the front two.

At 6/1, he offers a solid each-way proposition in a race where the market seems too focused on Ballyburn and Impaire Et Passe.

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Outside Value – Better Days Ahead (11/1)

While Gordon Elliott’s Better Days Ahead faces a stiff task, his form over hurdles and fences is solid. He was narrowly beaten by Croke Park last time, but that was over a longer trip and a different track setup. The key here is whether the pace allows him to come off the bridle smoothly. If there’s any faltering up front, he could pick off tired horses late.

At double-figure odds, he’s not without a shout for a place, especially in a race that could throw up a surprise if the market overcommits to the Mullins trio.

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Final Thoughts:

While Ballyburn is the class act, the market might be overconfident in pricing him up so short in a competitive Grade 1 novice chase. Impaire Et Passe offers the most obvious value if you’re looking to oppose the favourite, while Champ Kiely could surprise at a bigger price. Keep an eye on late market moves for Better Days Ahead as an outsider with place potential.

In races like these, finding value is all about identifying what the market misses—and today, it might be underestimating the depth of Mullins’ hand and the potential for an upset if Ballyburn doesn’t have things all his own way.