This competitive Listed Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown presents a classic scenario where a strong pace could unravel the race for those too eager upfront and open opportunities for value plays from off the pace. With the market focusing on some of the more obvious contenders, there are angles worth exploring that may have been overlooked.

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Brave Troop (9/2) looks a worthy favourite, seeking a hat-trick for the ever-shrewd Charles Byrnes yard. His last two wins were achieved with ease, and there’s a strong sense he’s still ahead of the handicapper. What catches the eye is how effortlessly he travelled in his last outing at Navan, pulling clear with plenty in hand. The key here is his ability to settle off the pace, which will be crucial given the projected strong gallop. Byrnes has a knack for placing his horses in these big-field handicaps, and Brave Troop fits that mould perfectly.

However, James’s Gate (7/1) might offer slightly better value. While the market acknowledges his potential, it may not fully appreciate how much room there is for improvement. His last two wins were achieved in a manner that suggests more to come, particularly when considering his smart bumper form. Martin Brassil’s charge showed great tenacity last time out, rallying after being headed at Navan. The strong pace will suit, and he’s capable of making a late charge.

One that might have slipped under the radar is Stormbreaker (14/1). The pace forecast from Timeform specifically highlights that the strong gallop is likely to enhance his chances, yet the market hasn’t fully reacted. While his form figures don’t scream obvious contender, his recent performances suggest he’s been underestimated. He stayed on strongly in a Punchestown handicap where the race wasn’t run to suit. With the expected collapse of front-runners here, he could be a big player at double-figure odds.

On the flip side, Mclaurey (7/2), while talented, could find this pace scenario against him. His maiden win at Limerick was impressive, but that was achieved under different race conditions. If he’s ridden prominently, as he often is, the strong gallop might expose him, making him a vulnerable favourite at his current price.

Value Play:
While Brave Troop is a legitimate favourite, the market seems to be underrating the likes of Stormbreaker and James’s Gate, who both look primed to capitalise on this pace scenario. For those looking for a bigger price, Stormbreaker offers excellent each-way value in what’s set to be a test of stamina and patience.

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Keep an eye on the late market moves, especially for the Mullins runners, but don’t be surprised if Brave Troop and Stormbreaker fight this one out in the final furlong.