With a strong pace forecast and a field stacked with promising mares, there’s room here to look beyond the obvious favourites and find some value, particularly with the market heavily focused on Willie Mullins’ Future Prospect.

Future Prospect (6/4 Fav)

She was visually impressive when quickening away to win by 9 lengths at Fairyhouse, and it’s easy to see why the market has latched onto her. However, that win came in a steadily run race where she was able to dictate her own terms. Today’s pace forecast is markedly different – a strong gallop over soft ground could expose any chinks in her stamina, and at the current price, she looks short enough. It’s worth remembering that Mullins’ bumper horses often carry a market premium, and while his record in this race is formidable, it’s not infallible.

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Value Angles the Market May Have Missed:

Carrigmoornaspruce (6/1)
Her form is perhaps more solid than the market suggests. Yes, she was beaten comprehensively by Amen Kate at Listowel, but she’s since won twice, including a cosy victory over Sortudo at Leopardstown, showing a sharp turn of foot late on. The strong pace forecast here could play perfectly into her hands – she’s a mare who finishes her races well, and if the leaders go too hard up front, she’ll be the one picking up the pieces. Additionally, her tendency to trade much higher in-running could offer opportunities for those watching the race live.

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Bambino Fever (17/2)
Overshadowed by more prominent stablemates, Bambino Fever could slip under the radar. She won comfortably at Punchestown, and while the bare form might not leap off the page, it’s often the manner of the victory that tells the story in these bumpers. She travelled smoothly and quickened impressively – a hallmark of a mare with more to offer. Given Mullins’ strike rate in this race, ignoring his second or third strings can be costly, and Bambino Fever could well represent value at her current odds.

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Churchfield Sunset (12/1)
Trained by Emmet Mullins, she’s shown progressive form and could well outperform her odds. She won a listed event at Navan last time out, asserting herself in the final furlong, and while this is a step up in class, she’s bred to improve further. If the race turns into a stamina test, she’s one who could be finishing strongly.

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Final Thoughts:

While Future Prospect is rightly favourite, the pace dynamics here suggest a more open race than the market implies. Carrigmoornaspruce and Bambino Fever stand out as value plays, with the former particularly appealing given her ability to finish off a strong pace. Churchfield Sunset also looks a fair each-way option at double-figure odds.

In races like this, where unexposed talent meets unpredictable race dynamics, it’s often wise to side with value over hype – and there’s plenty of value lurking beneath the surface here.