The market is heavily leaning towards Kopek Des Bordes (evens), and on paper, it’s easy to see why. Willie Mullins’ charge has looked every bit the exciting prospect in his two wins to date, including a smooth success over course and distance. However, while his raw ability is undeniable, there’s a significant factor that the market might be underestimating—the pace.

The strong pace forecast could be Kopek Des Bordes’ undoing. His jumping, while improving, still carries the hallmarks of inexperience. Under pressure in a truly run Grade 1, any novicey mistake could be magnified, particularly if he’s racing prominently in a field that isn’t going to hang about.

This opens the door to potential value plays.

Sea of Sands (40/1)

It’s easy to dismiss Sea of Sands after his pulled-up effort last time out, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He was found to be clinically abnormal post-race, and a return to his prior form would make this price look ludicrous in hindsight. His third in the Grade 2 Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle was a solid performance in a race that has thrown up subsequent winners.

Importantly, the forecasted strong pace should play into his hands. He’s more comfortable settling off the speed, and if he’s back to full health, he has the class to pick off tiring rivals. Mullins wouldn’t keep him in a race of this calibre if there were lingering concerns, and at 40/1, he’s a compelling each-way bet in a race that could fall apart late on.

Bleu de Vassy (8/1)

While Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid D’Authie dominate the betting, Bleu de Vassy represents solid value in the mid-range. His second in the Future Champions Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown came behind a talented type in Romeo Coolio, and interestingly, he traded at half his starting Betfair SP in-running before fading late. This suggests he was travelling like the best horse in the race for a large portion.

He’s a strong traveller and handles soft ground well, making him well-suited to the conditions. If the leaders crack under the hot tempo, Bleu de Vassy could be the one to capitalise, especially if ridden a touch more conservatively this time.

Final Thoughts:

While Kopek Des Bordes has the profile of a future star, this isn’t a one-horse race. The pace could be a leveller, and there’s a strong argument that the market is underestimating horses like Sea of Sands and Bleu de Vassy who are better suited to these dynamics. Sea of Sands in particular is hugely overpriced if he’s back to his best.

In races like this, value often lies away from the obvious—and the pace setup could be the key to unlocking it.