13:40 Market Rasen – TRUSTATRADER APPLY TODAY EBF ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier)

In a small field where tactics could play a crucial role, I’M A LUMBERJACK looks the strongest contender on paper, but there may be more to this race than the market suggests.

I’M A LUMBERJACK impressed when stretching away at Warwick, and his stamina is assured. The sharper nature of Market Rasen should suit his running style, but with a pace forecast indicating a very weak early gallop, this could neutralise his stamina edge, particularly if he’s held up off a steady pace.

This brings BELLIANO into sharp focus. He’s a chaser in the making and took a while to assert at Ascot over further, but he’s likely to be better positioned in this small, tactical affair. His ability to stay on strongly will be valuable if they dawdle early and then sprint for home. Paul Nicholls’ 24% strike rate with hurdlers in this distance range further bolsters his claims.

However, the market might be underestimating SILVER THORN at 6/1. He touched a low in-running last time, suggesting he travelled well before fading. Emma Lavelle is in red-hot form, and this gelding could be better suited by today’s conditions, especially if the race turns tactical. His pedigree hints at potential improvement over hurdles, and while he’s not as flashy as the front two in the market, the price may not reflect his true chances.

Verdict: I’M A LUMBERJACK remains the likeliest winner, but the tactical nature of this race could see BELLIANO capitalising if he’s allowed an easy lead. SILVER THORN is the interesting value each-way play, with a chance to outrun his odds if the leaders misjudge the pace.