13:40 Southwell – A Case for MARTALMIX’JAC (FR)

At first glance, Prince Cleni looks the obvious choice here, coming in off the back of strong recent form and boasting a solid record over course and distance. But while his credentials are hard to knock, the market may be underestimating MARTALMIX’JAC (FR), who represents a bit of value in this contest at around 8/1.

The key angle here is pace. Southwell’s three-mile chases can often favour those on or near the pace, particularly when the forecast suggests a weak early gallop. Hold-up horses tend to find themselves at a disadvantage when the tempo isn’t strong, and that’s exactly the scenario we’re looking at today. Martalmix’jac is a horse who tends to race prominently or even make the running, and that tactical position could prove crucial here.

It’s also worth noting that Martalmix’jac bounced back to form when finishing second at Ludlow last time out. He was beaten 6½ lengths but stayed on well, showing a spark we hadn’t seen in his previous few starts. That run suggests he’s back in good heart, and the handicapper has left him on a mark of 85, which still looks lenient based on his best form. His ability to handle soft ground adds another positive, considering the conditions at Southwell today.

Another interesting point the market seems to be overlooking is that Martalmix’jac has had a breathing operation, and sometimes these horses can take a couple of runs to show the full benefit. His Ludlow performance could be the start of a resurgence, and with a suitable pace setup, he looks primed to outrun his odds.

While Prince Cleni deserves his place at the head of the market, he’s now priced at a point where there’s little room for manoeuvre, especially in a race where mistakes or tactical misjudgements can have a big impact. In contrast, Martalmix’jac offers a solid each-way angle in a race that could play to his strengths if he gets into a rhythm out front.

At the current odds, he’s worth siding with to either win or hit the frame.