15:50 Southwell – Golf and Gallop Package Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)

At first glance, BOBBY SOCKS (3/1) looks like the obvious candidate here, and it’s hard to argue against his credentials. Returning from a 17-month layoff, he ran a highly encouraging race to finish third at Leicester, suggesting there’s plenty more in the tank. With the benefit of that run under his belt, plus Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen boasting excellent strike rates at Southwell, he looks the likeliest winner. However, at current odds, there might not be much juice left in the price.

Where I think the market may have overlooked some value is with SHANTWOPOINTFIVE (12/1). The race shape is crucial here – the pace forecast suggests a weakly-run race, and hold-up horses aren’t generally favoured over this trip at Southwell. Shantwopointfive, who is expected to race prominently, could be ideally positioned to capitalise.

She possibly needed her reappearance run at Leicester after a six-month break, fading late but still showing enough to suggest there’s improvement to come. Her earlier form, including a convincing maiden hurdle win at Cartmel, reads well in the context of this race. With natural progression and a better tactical setup today, she’s worth a closer look at double-figure odds.

Verdict: While Bobby Socks is the one to beat, SHANTWOPOINTFIVE offers strong each-way value in a race that may favour those on or near the pace.