In today’s 12:55 at Fairyhouse, the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Chase promises to be a tactical affair on heavy ground, with the pace forecast set to very weak. This sets the stage perfectly for horses that can race prominently, and one name stands out clearly against the field.

PAGGANE – The Strongest Contender

Trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend, Paggane comes into this race off the back of an eye-catching second over fences at Limerick. The mare’s Timeform rating of 143p not only marks her as the top-rated in the field but also signals considerable room for improvement. The ‘p’ symbol is particularly significant here—horses marked with this symbol often progress quickly, especially when trained by someone of Mullins’ calibre.

Crucially, the weak pace forecast plays into Paggane’s hands perfectly. She typically races up with the pace, and in a race devoid of strong front-runners, this tactical advantage could prove decisive. With Townend’s impressive 35% strike rate at Fairyhouse, the signs point strongly in her favour.

Market Oversight – IRIS EMERY

While the market rightly favours Paggane, there might be some overlooking of Iris Emery at 7/1. Another Mullins-trained mare, Iris Emery has a Timeform rating of 135 and is capable of bettering that mark. While she has been prone to mistakes (indicated by the ‘x’ on her Timeform card), the drop in pace could allow her to settle better and avoid jumping errors.

Given the heavy ground and tactical nature of the race, Iris Emery could be primed to pick up the pieces if Paggane falters or encounters trouble.

Verdict

Paggane looks the standout, with all indicators—form, pace dynamics, and trainer-jockey stats—pointing towards a strong showing. However, for those looking for each-way value, Iris Emery could represent a shrewd play at the current odds, especially if the market continues to overlook her potential to improve in these conditions.

Recommended Bet:

• Paggane to win
• Iris Emery each-way at 7/1