In a small-field novice hurdle like this, it’s easy to gravitate towards the obvious, and Vanderpoel (4/11) certainly ticks all the right boxes. An impressive debut winner over hurdles at Huntingdon, he’s got a 125p Timeform rating, suggesting further improvement is likely. With the race lacking any obvious pace angle, his adaptability to different race scenarios makes him the clear standout.
However, at prohibitive odds, the value hunters among us might be looking elsewhere. With only seven runners, each-way options are limited, but there could be a slight angle the market has overlooked.
King Of Records (10/3) returns from a 488-day absence, which understandably raises concerns, but he’s no slouch. Fairly useful on the flat in France and now under Venetia Williams, he’s got the potential to spring a surprise if fit enough. Venetia tends to have her runners well-prepared, and the weak pace could play into the hands of a horse with flat speed and stamina. If there’s a chink in Vanderpoel’s armour—whether inexperience or second-run syndrome—King Of Records could capitalise.
For those looking for a speculative play, Grenardier (25/1) holds little on paper but could sneak into a place if one of the front two falter. While he’s outclassed on ratings, small fields often produce surprising results, especially if the race turns tactical.
Verdict: Vanderpoel is the most likely winner, but at the prices, King Of Records offers a bit of value if you’re willing to take a chance on fitness. With only seven runners, the each-way angle is limited, but don’t completely dismiss Grenardier sneaking into a place at a big price.
Betting without the favourite or a forecast bet could be an option here. Check the market near off time.
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