The 13:25 at Fairyhouse presents a fascinating puzzle for punters, with Thelonglad catching the eye as the strongest contender. This 7-year-old was set to score on chase debut at Limerick before an unfortunate fall two out, and the potential for improvement is clear, reflected in the ‘p’ on his Timeform rating. Adjusted to 123, he tops the field comfortably, and at 9/2, there’s still value given his promise over fences and a race dynamic that suits his style.

However, while Thelonglad rightly holds favouritism, the market seems to have overlooked Dawn Escape. Despite trading at 20/1, his adjusted Timeform rating sits at a competitive 118, matching that of Mighty Oak Lad, who is priced much shorter. Dawn Escape’s recent performances show consistency, and with conditions expected to favour his staying power in heavy going, he represents a solid each-way prospect, particularly if the pace unfolds as expected.

Quornofamonday also warrants attention. Marked with a ‘+’ indicating potential to outperform his official mark, he adjusts to 119, putting him right in the mix. At 7/1, he offers a decent alternative for those looking beyond the favourite, especially given his tendency to stay on strongly in testing conditions.

In summary:

• Win Play: Thelonglad (9/2) – Top-rated and primed for a strong run.
• Each-Way Value: Dawn Escape (20/1) – Overlooked by the market but rating suggests he’s in with a shout.
• Alternative Play: Quornofamonday (7/1) – Well-handicapped with the potential to surprise.

Keep an eye on the markets closer to the off – any drift on Thelonglad could sweeten the value, while any support for Dawn Escape might indicate stable confidence.