Kempton 18:30 – A Value Play Against the Favourite

While Grenham Bay heads the market at around 5/2, and with good reason given his solid course form and the Oisin Murphy/Andrew Balding combination, there’s a horse lurking at a bigger price that looks primed to outrun its odds in this weak-paced contest.

BIG R caught the eye last time out when comfortably landing a course-and-distance victory, showing a decisive turn of foot to win by over a length. What stands out is that he traded at twice his starting Betfair SP in running during that win, suggesting the market underestimated his finishing speed. With a weak pace forecast tonight, his ability to quicken off a steady gallop will be a major asset.

Moreover, BIG R has shown he can handle both the Standard and Slow polytrack conditions at Kempton, and his current odds (around 5/1) seem to underrate his consistency. The market appears to be more focused on the favourite’s strong connections, but BIG R’s proven ability under these exact conditions makes him a solid win and place proposition.

If you’re looking for a bit more value, WALLOP at 10/1 with first-time headgear for Richard Hannon (a trainer with a strong profit margin in these scenarios) could sneak into the frame, especially from a favourable low draw.

Recommended Bet:

BIG R – Win & Place at 5/1

WALLOP – Each-Way at 10/1


The market seems to have overlooked how well BIG R is suited to this race setup, making him the value pick against the favourite.

Race Review: 18:30 Kempton – 5th Feb 2025

Winner: Grenham Bay (IRE) – 100/30 (JFav)

Tactics: Made all, clear 4f out, stayed on well, unchallenged.

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Performance: Dominated from the front, showing strong pace and never looking in danger. A commanding win, making all and staying on well.


Runner-Up: Hierarchy (IRE) – 7/1

Tactics: Held up in rear, strong late run to grab second inside the final furlong.

Trainer: Jamie Osborne

Jockey: Saffie Osborne

Performance: Closed well late, but the winner was too far ahead. Eye-catching finish; could be worth noting for a more strongly run race.


Third: Hiatus (IRE) – 14/1

Tactics: Chased the winner, ridden over 2f out, kept on but lost 2nd late.

Trainer: C N Allen

Jockey: Connor Planas (3)

Performance: Ran well behind a dominant leader. Was prominent throughout and kept on, suggesting current mark is fair.


Fourth: Harry Did – 100/30 (JFav)

Tactics: Held up towards rear, ran on well late but never on terms.

Trainer: Harry Eustace

Jockey: Kaiya Fraser (3)

Performance: Solid effort but left with too much to do. Another who could be of interest in a better-run race.


Key Takeaways:

Grenham Bay (IRE): Hugely dominant front-running display. Well-ridden by Oisin Murphy, took control early and never looked back.

Hierarchy (IRE) & Harry Did: Both ran on late and might benefit from a stronger early pace next time.

Hiatus (IRE): Kept on well after chasing the pace; an honest performance.


Pace Analysis:

Front-runner: Grenham Bay dictated from the front and proved difficult to peg back.

Closers: Hierarchy & Harry Did made late ground but never threatened to catch the winner.


Future Considerations:

Grenham Bay (IRE) could be one to follow in similar conditions, particularly in races where he can dominate from the front.

Hierarchy (IRE) and Harry Did should be noted for future races where a stronger pace would suit their running styles.